Publications
Publications
- 2010
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Abstract
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms. Stripping away these routine trades, which comprise over half the entire universe of insider trades, leaves a set of information-rich "opportunistic" trades that contains all the predictive power in the insider trading universe. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on opportunistic insider trades yields value-weight abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while the abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. Further, opportunistic trades predict future news and events at a firm level, while routine trades do not.
Keywords
Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Market Transactions
Citation
Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16454, October 2010. (Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.)