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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Harbinger Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
  • Format:Print
  • | Language:English
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Abstract

Past spending by a customer is generally a positive signal of future spending at the same retailer. We show that there exist “Harbinger Categories” for which the reverse is true. The more purchases customers make in these categories, the less likely these customers are to return to that retailer. The finding is robust and replicates at different retailers.

We show that the effect results at least in part from different customers preferring different brands. Because retailers cannot stock every brand, customers cannot always find their favorite brand. While they may purchase on the current trip, they return to a different store on future purchase occasions. We support this explanation with evidence from both historical data and laboratory experiments. The findings confirm that, compared to non-harbinger categories, in harbinger categories customers are less likely to find their favorite brands when visiting a store, and are less likely to return if their favorite brands are unavailable.

These findings also suggest an important implication for managers. Harbinger categories can help retailers identify where to broaden their assortments. Retailers have to prioritize where to expand their assortments, and harbinger categories can help them do so.

Keywords

Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry; United States

Citation

Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Harbinger Categories." Working Paper, February 2021.

About The Author

Ayelet Israeli

Marketing
→More Publications

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More from the Authors
  • Banorte Móvil: Data-Driven Mobile Growth By: Ayelet Israeli and Carla Larangeira
  • Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT) By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
  • AptDeco: Circular Economy Furniture Marketplace By: Ayelet Israeli
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