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  • September 2021
  • Article
  • Journal of Regional Science

Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Benjamin T. Leyden
  • Format:Print
  • | Pages:30
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Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant activity data, we find that the implementation of stay-at-home orders initially had a limited impact, but that activity rose quickly after states’ reopenings. The results suggest that consumers inferred from reopening that it was safer to eat out. The rational, but mistaken inference that occurs in our model may explain why a sharp rise of COVID-19 cases followed reopening in some states.

Keywords

COVID-19; Lockdown; Reopening; Impact; Coronavirus; Public Health Measures; Mobility; Health Pandemics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Consumer Behavior

Citation

Glaeser, Edward L., Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca, and Benjamin T. Leyden. "Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19." Special Issue on COVID-19 and Regional Economies. Journal of Regional Science 61, no. 4 (September 2021): 696–709.
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About The Author

Michael Luca

Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
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