Research Summary
Research Summary
Male Circumcision and HIV/AIDS: The Macroeconomic Effects of a Health Crises (with Eric Werker and Brian Wendell)
Description
Theories abound on the possible impact of AIDS on economic growth and savings in Africa; yet there have been surprisingly few empirical studies to test the mixed theoretical predictions. In this paper, we examine the impact of the AIDS epidemic on African nations through 2002 using the male circumcision rate to identify plausibly exogenous variation in HIV prevalence. Medical researchers have found significant evidence that male circumcision can reduce the risk of contracting HIV. We assemble national circumcision rates for African nations and find that they are both a strong predictor of HIV/AIDS prevalence and uncorrelated with other determinants of economic outcomes. Two-stage least squares regressions do not support the hypotheses that AIDS has had any measurable impact on economic growth, savings, or fertility behavior in African nations; however we do find evidence that AIDS has lead to a slow-down in the increase in youth literacy.