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- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the...
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Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference
By: Michael Lindon, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyze randomized controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to...
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Lindon, Michael, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-060, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference
By: Tu Ni, Iavor Bojinov and Jinglong Zhao
One of the main practical challenges companies face when running experiments (or A/B tests) over a panel is interference, the setting where one experimental unit's treatment assignment at one time period impacts another's outcomes, possibly at the following time...
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Keywords:
Research
Ni, Tu, Iavor Bojinov, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-058, March 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available...
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Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Value of Iterative Experimentation
By: Iavor I Bojinov and Jialiang Mao
Over the past decade, most technology companies and a growing number of conventional firms have adopted online experimentation (or A/B testing) into their product development process. Initially, A/B testing was deployed as a static procedure in which an experiment was...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., and Jialiang Mao. "Quantifying the Value of Iterative Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-059, March 2024.
- March 2024
- Teaching Note
Experimentation at Yelp
By: Iavor Bojinov and Jessie Li
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 621-064.
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- February 2024
- Teaching Note
Orchadio's First Two Split Experiments
By: Iavor I. Bojinov and Jessie Li
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 622-015.
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- February 2024
- Teaching Note
Data Science at the Warriors
By: Iavor I Bojinov and Jessie Li
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 622-048.
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- January 2024
- Article
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...
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Han, Kevin Wu, Guillaume Basse, and Iavor Bojinov. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Journal of Econometrics 238, no. 1 (January 2024).
- 2023
- Article
Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy
By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a...
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Li, Yufan, Jialiang Mao, and Iavor Bojinov. "Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
- November–December 2023
- Article
Keep Your AI Projects on Track
By: Iavor Bojinov
AI—and especially its newest star, generative AI—is today a central theme in corporate boardrooms, leadership discussions, and casual exchanges among employees eager to supercharge their productivity. Sadly, beneath the aspirational headlines and tantalizing potential...
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Keywords:
Generative Models;
AI and Machine Learning;
Success;
Failure;
Product Development;
Technology Adoption
Bojinov, Iavor. "Keep Your AI Projects on Track." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 6 (November–December 2023): 53–59.
- July 2023
- Article
Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Management Science 69, no. 7 (July 2023): 3759–3777.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to...
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Keywords:
Performance Evaluation;
Research and Development;
Analytics and Data Science;
Consumer Behavior
Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial
intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions
highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and
algorithms)...
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Keywords:
Analytics and Data Science
Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
- December 1, 2022
- Article
Which Connections Really Help You Find a Job?
By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
Experiments involving 20 million people generated a surprising finding: moderately weak connects — and not strong connections — are the most useful in finding a new job. To be more specific, the ties that are most helpful for finding new jobs tend to be moderately...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "Which Connections Really Help You Find a Job?" Harvard Business Review (website) (December 1, 2022).
- October 2022 (Revised June 2023)
- Case
On Ramp to Crypto
Bojinov, Iavor, Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "On Ramp to Crypto." Harvard Business School Case 623-040, October 2022. (Revised June 2023.)
- September 16, 2022
- Article
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...
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Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).