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- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- January 2022 (Revised January 2022)
- Case
The Impact Developers Fund
- August 2021
- Article
Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...
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- Fall 2020
- Article
Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business-lending and corporate-bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
How Should U.S. Bank Regulators Respond to the COVID-19 Crisis?
Drawing on lessons from the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and a simple conceptual framework, we examine the response of U.S. bank regulators to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the current regulatory strategy of “watchful waiting”—the same strategy that...
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- 2020
- Working Paper
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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- June 2019
- Article
Social Risk, Fiscal Risk, and the Portfolio of Government Programs
We develop a model of government portfolio choice in which a benevolent government chooses the scale of risky projects in the presence of market failures and tax distortions. These two frictions generate motives to manage social risk and fiscal risk. Social risk...
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes, and that market outcomes in turn affect investors' beliefs. We develop a behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring such a two-way feedback loop. In our model, investors form beliefs...
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- December 2018 (Revised February 2019)
- Teaching Note
Pershing Square 2.0
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Teaching Note for HBS No. 216-003.
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- December 2018 (Revised February 2019)
- Teaching Note
Merger Arbitrage at Tannenberg Capital
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 218-065 and 218-066.
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- December 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Teaching Note
The Fidelity Growth Company Fund
By: Samuel Hanson
Teaching Note for HBS No. 218-090.
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- December 2018 (Revised February 2019)
- Teaching Note
The Case of the Unidentified Equity Managers
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Teaching Note for HBS No. 217-055.
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- December 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Teaching Note
Dogs of the Dow
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 215-020 and 219-051.
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- October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Case
The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests
In February and March 2009, the U.S. economy was in the midst of a terrifying financial and economic crisis. Between the beginning of 2008 and early 2009, four of the 25 largest U.S. financial institutions had failed, and nine of these 25 institutions had taken...
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- October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
- Case
The Financial Crisis: Hank Paulson in 2008
On the afternoon of Monday October 13, 2008, Hank Paulson Jr., the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, walked into the large conference room across the hall from his office in the Treasury Department. Joining him were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke,...
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- September 2018
- Article
Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival...
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- March 2018 (Revised February 2019)
- Case
The Fidelity Growth Company Fund
By: Sara L. Fleiss and Samuel G. Hanson