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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes
By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...  View Details
Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...  View Details
Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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  • June 2020
  • Article

Understanding Different Approaches to Benefit-Based Taxation
By: Robert Scherf and Matthew C. Weinzierl
The normative principle of benefit-based taxation has exerted substantial influence on many areas of public finance, but it has been largely set aside in the modern theoretical approach to optimal income taxation, where welfarist objectives dominate. A prerequisite for...  View Details
Keywords: Benefit-based Taxation; Public Goods; Lindahl; Optimal Taxation; Taxation
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  • Article

The Role of Interactivity in Local Differential Privacy
By: Matthew Joseph, Jieming Mao, Seth Neel and Aaron Leon Roth
We study the power of interactivity in local differential privacy. First, we focus on the difference between fully interactive and sequentially interactive protocols. Sequentially interactive protocols may query users adaptively in sequence, but they cannot return to...  View Details
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  • October 2019 (Revised September 2021)
  • Case

Gupta Media: Performance Marketing in the Digital Age
By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
Gupta Media is a Digital Marketing firm started in 2005 that places advertisements and marketing promotions for its clients in digital media, mainly social media such as Facebook and Google. Over the years it had built its expertise in promoting music labels, artists...  View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Digital Marketing; Performance; Measurement and Metrics; Social Media; Advertising Industry
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  • August 2019
  • Article

When and How to Diversify—A Multicategory Utility Model for Personalized Content Recommendation
By: Yicheng Song, Nachiketa Sahoo and Elie Ofek
Sometimes we desire change, a break from the same or an opportunity to fulfill different aspects of our needs. Noting that consumers seek variety, several approaches have been developed to diversify items recommended by personalized recommender systems. However,...  View Details
Keywords: Recommender Systems; Personalization; Recommendation Diversity; Variety Seeking; Collaborative Filtering; Consumer Utility Models; Digital Media; Clickstream Analysis; Learning-to-rank; Consumer Behavior; Media; Customization and Personalization; Strategy; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2019
  • Article

Time-Driven Activity-Based Cost Analysis for Outpatient Anticoagulation Therapy: Direct Costs in a Primary Care Setting with Optimal Performance
By: Robert S. Kaplan, Rohit A. Bobade, Richard A. Helmers, Thomas M. Jaeger, Laura J. Odell and Derek A. Haas
Objectives: To determine how overall cost of anticoagulation therapy for warfarin compares with that of Novel Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs). Also, to demonstrate a scientific, comprehensive, and an analytical approach to estimate direct costs involved in monitoring and...  View Details
Keywords: Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing; Activity Based Costing and Management; Health Care and Treatment; Analysis
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Understanding Different Approaches to Benefit-Based Taxation
By: Robert Scherf and Matthew C. Weinzierl
The normative principle of benefit-based taxation has exerted substantial influence on many areas of public finance, but it has been largely set aside in the modern theoretical approach to optimal income taxation, where welfarist objectives dominate. A prerequisite for...  View Details
Keywords: Benefit-based Taxation; Taxation; Theory
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Large-Scale Demand Estimation with Search Data
By: Tomomichi Amano, Andrew Rhodes and Stephan Seiler
In many online markets, traditional methods of demand estimation are difficult to implement because assortments are very large and individual products are sold infrequently. At the same time, data on consumer search (i.e., browsing) behavior are often available and are...  View Details
Keywords: High-dimensional Data; Demand Estimation; Consideration Sets; Consumer Search
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  • February 2018
  • Article

Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.
By: Eva Ascarza
Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models...  View Details
Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management
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  • Article

Mitigating Bias in Adaptive Data Gathering via Differential Privacy
By: Seth Neel and Aaron Leon Roth
Data that is gathered adaptively—via bandit algorithms, for example—exhibits bias. This is true both when gathering simple numeric valued data—the empirical means kept track of by stochastic bandit algorithms are biased downwards—and when gathering more complicated...  View Details
Keywords: Bandit Algorithms; Bias; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Theory
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  • Article

Preventing Fairness Gerrymandering: Auditing and Learning for Subgroup Fairness
By: Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth and Zhiwei Steven Wu
The most prevalent notions of fairness in machine learning are statistical definitions: they fix a small collection of pre-defined groups, and then ask for parity of some statistic of the classifier (like classification rate or false positive rate) across these groups....  View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Algorithms; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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  • May 2017
  • Article

Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry
By: William Schmidt and Ryan W. Buell
Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less-informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a tradeoff between making an optimal decision and...  View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Decision Research; Information Asymmetry; Signaling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alignment
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  • Article

Multi-Echelon Inventory Management Under Short-Term Take-or-Pay Contracts
By: Joel Goh and Evan L. Porteus
We extend the Clark–Scarf serial multi-echelon inventory model to include procuring production inputs under short-term take-or-pay contracts at one or more stages. In each period, each such stage has the option to order/process at two different cost rates; the cheaper...  View Details
Keywords: Inventory Management; Multi-echelon Inventory Theory; Karush Lemma; Clark-Scarf Model; Convex Ordering Cost; Advance Commitments; Supply Chain
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  • Article

The Relationship Between Workplace Stressors and Mortality and Health Costs in the United States
By: Joel Goh, Jeffrey Pfeffer and Stefanos A. Zenios
Even though epidemiological evidence links specific workplace stressors to health outcomes, the aggregate contribution of these factors to overall mortality and health spending in the United States is not known. In this paper, we build a model to estimate the excess...  View Details
Keywords: Occupational Health; Health Costs; Mortality; Applied Optimization; Health
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  • November–December 2015
  • Article

Active Postmarketing Drug Surveillance for Multiple Adverse Events
By: Joel Goh, Margrét V. Bjarnadóttir, Mohsen Bayati and Stefanos A. Zenios
Postmarketing drug surveillance is the process of monitoring the adverse events of pharmaceutical or medical devices after they are approved by the appropriate regulatory authorities. Historically, such surveillance was based on voluntary reports by medical...  View Details
Keywords: Drug Surveillance; Health Care; Stochastic Models; Queueing; Diffusion Approximation; Brownian Motion; Health Care and Treatment; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis
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  • 2013
  • Dissertation

Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers...  View Details
Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups
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  • January–February 2012
  • Article

Do You Need a New Product-Development Strategy?
By: Alan MacCormack, W. Crandall, P. Toft and P. Henderson
Many firms rely on a single new-product development process for all projects. But designing new products for different business contexts requires that a firm deploy different new-product development processes. Products designed for stable and mature end-user markets...  View Details
Keywords: Strategy; Product Development
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  • Article

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios
By: Jakub W. Jurek and Luis M. Viceira
We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic portfolio choice problem of an investor with power utility defined over wealth at a finite horizon, who faces a time-varying investment opportunity set, parameterized using a flexible vector autoregression. We apply this...  View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity; Investment; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing; Value
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  • Article

Genetic Optimization of Photonic Bandgap Structures
By: Joel Goh, Ilya Fushman, Dirk Englund and Jelena Vuckovic
Keywords: Genetic Optimization; Photonic Crystals; Design; Applied Optics
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