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      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets

      By: Jonathan Wallen
      On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Market Power; Regulations; Currency; Assets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry
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      Wallen, Jonathan. "Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets." Working Paper, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Excess Reconstitution-Day Volume

      By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
      FTSE/Russell reconstitutes its Russell 1000 and 2000 indexes on the last Friday of June each year, and it announces which stocks will switch indexes roughly two weeks in advance. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) must do all of their rebalancing on Russell’s reconstitution...  View Details
      Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
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      Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "Excess Reconstitution-Day Volume." Working Paper, February 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Case

      Fueling a Cleaner Future: ACWA Power and Green Hydrogen

      By: Dennis Yao and Alpana Thapar
      In January 2020, Paddy Padmanathan, president and CEO of ACWA Power, was reflecting on the company’s sixteen-year record of success and thinking about its future growth plans. Founded in 2004, ACWA Power was a Saudi Arabian developer, owner, and operator of power and...  View Details
      Keywords: Green Hydrogen; Energy; Climate Change; Supply Chain; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Green Technology; Projects; Alliances; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Energy Industry; Saudi Arabia; Middle East; North Africa
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      Yao, Dennis, and Alpana Thapar. "Fueling a Cleaner Future: ACWA Power and Green Hydrogen." Harvard Business School Case 722-381, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Segmented Arbitrage

      By: Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam and Jonathan Wallen
      We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the twenty-nine arbitrage spreads that we study is 22%. These low correlations...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Intermediary-based Asset Pricing; Finance; Segmentation
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      Siriwardane, Emil, Adi Sunderam, and Jonathan Wallen. "Segmented Arbitrage." Working Paper, November 2021.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Diagnostic Bubbles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...  View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Augmenting Markets with Mechanisms

      By: Samuel Antill and Darrell Duffie
      We explain how the common practice of size-discovery trade detracts from overall financial market efficiency. At each of a series of size-discovery sessions, traders report their desired trades, generating allocations of the asset and cash that rely on the most recent...  View Details
      Keywords: Mechanism Design; Price Impact; Size Discovery; Allocative Efficiency; Workup; Dark Pool; Financial Markets; Market Design; Performance Efficiency
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      Antill, Samuel, and Darrell Duffie. "Augmenting Markets with Mechanisms." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 4 (July 2021): 1665–1719.
      • June 2021 (Revised January 2022)
      • Case

      MicroStrategy: Accounting for Cryptocurrency

      By: Jonas Heese and Annelena Lobb
      On February 15, 2021, Alina Moss, an analyst who covered the technology company MicroStrategy, pondered a rise in MicroStrategy’s share price. Moss had dialed into the company earnings call. When it ended, Moss had more questions than answers. MicroStrategy had...  View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Share Price; Electronic Commerce; Intangible Assets; Assets; Accounting; Financial Statements; Financial Management; Financial Reporting; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce
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      Heese, Jonas, and Annelena Lobb. "MicroStrategy: Accounting for Cryptocurrency." Harvard Business School Case 121-066, June 2021. (Revised January 2022.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Hidden Software and Veiled Value Creation: Illustrations from Server Software Usage

      By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
      How do you measure the value of a commodity that transacts at a price of zero from an economic standpoint? This study examines the potential for and extent of omission and misattribution in standard approaches to economic accounting with regards to open source...  View Details
      Keywords: Server Software; Open Source Distribution; Applications and Software; Analytics and Data Science; Economics; Value Creation; Measurement and Metrics
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      Murciano-Goroff, Raviv, Ran Zhuo, and Shane Greenstein. "Hidden Software and Veiled Value Creation: Illustrations from Server Software Usage." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28738, April 2021.
      • January 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Supplement

      Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and The Cost of Capital (Abridged)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield and Daniel Fisher
      In 2000, Eaton Corporation was a broadly diversified industrial conglomerate. But its strategy was evolving and its focus was narrowing around “power management” and more recently on “intelligent power,” the use of digitally enabled products and services designed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Conglomerates; Business Divisions; Cost of Capital; Corporate Finance; Value; Valuation; Industrial Products Industry; United States; Denmark; Republic of Ireland
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      Esty, Benjamin C., E. Scott Mayfield, and Daniel Fisher. "Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and The Cost of Capital (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 221-708, January 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • January 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and the Cost of Capital (Abridged)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield and Daniel Fisher
      In 2000, Eaton Corporation was a broadly diversified industrial conglomerate. But its strategy was evolving and its focus was narrowing around “power management” and more recently on “intelligent power,” the use of digitally enabled products and services designed to...  View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Conglomerates; Business Divisions; Cost of Capital; Corporate Finance; Value; Valuation; Industrial Products Industry; United States; Denmark; Republic of Ireland
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      Esty, Benjamin C., E. Scott Mayfield, and Daniel Fisher. "Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and the Cost of Capital (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 221-070, January 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • November 2020
      • Article

      Casting Conference Calls

      By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
      We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Release; Firms; Conference Calls; Information; Strategy; Asset Pricing
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      Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Casting Conference Calls." Management Science 66, no. 11 (November 2020): 5015–5039. (Winner of the First Prize, Crowell Memorial Award for Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, PanAgora Asset Management, 2014.)
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Climate Change Is Going to Transform Where and How We Build

      By: John D. Macomber
      As fires, floods, and droughts increasingly threaten homes, businesses, and other institutions, climate risk has become financial risk. This implies that homeowners and investors have been making location decisions without properly pricing the cost of potential peril,...  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Housing; Mortgages; Geographic Location; Real Estate Industry
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      Macomber, John D. "Climate Change Is Going to Transform Where and How We Build." In Climate Change: The Insights You Need from Harvard Business Review. Vol. 12. HBR Insights Series. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • May 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down

      By: Jill Avery
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 519-076. On Friday, February 22, 2019, following an unexpected and disappointing earnings report, The Kraft Heinz Company’s stock price fell 27%, wiping out $16 billion in market value. CEO Bernardo Hees had announced that the company had...  View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill. "Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 520-114, May 2020.
      • 2020
      • Article

      Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability

      By: George Serafeim
      Combining corporate sustainability performance scores based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data with big data measuring public sentiment about a company’s sustainability performance, I find that the valuation premium paid for companies with strong...  View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Investment Management; Investment Strategy; Big Data; Machine Learning; Environment; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Governance; Performance; Asset Pricing; Investment; Management; Strategy; Human Capital; Public Opinion; Value
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      Serafeim, George. "Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability." Financial Analysts Journal 76, no. 2 (2020): 26–46.
      • December 2019
      • Article

      Brokers and Order Flow Leakage: Evidence from Fire Sales

      By: Andrea Barbon, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni and Augustin Landier
      Using trade-level data, we study whether brokers play a role in spreading order flow information. We focus on large portfolio liquidations, which result in temporary drops in stock prices, and identify the brokers that intermediate these trades. We show that these...  View Details
      Keywords: Predatory Trading; Back Running; Fire Sales; Brokers; Stocks; Price; Information; Knowledge Dissemination; Ethics
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      Barbon, Andrea, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, and Augustin Landier. "Brokers and Order Flow Leakage: Evidence from Fire Sales." Journal of Finance 74, no. 6 (December 2019): 2707–2749. (LEAD ARTICLE.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering

      By: Ishita Sen and Varun Sharma
      Exploiting position-level heterogeneity in regulatory incentives to misreport and novel data on regulators, we document that U.S. life insurers inflate the values of corporate bonds using internal models. We estimate an additional $9-$18 billion decline in regulatory...  View Details
      Keywords: Life Insurers; Capital Regulation; Internal Models; Corporate Bonds; Regulatory Supervision; Concentrated Ownership; Bonds; Capital; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Insurance; Investment Portfolio
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      Sen, Ishita, and Varun Sharma. "Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering." Working Paper, June 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Article

      The Relevance of Broker Networks for Information Diffusion in the Stock Market

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Amir Kermani and Carlo Sommavilla
      This paper shows that the network of relationships between brokers and institutional investors shapes information diffusion in the stock market. We exploit trade-level data to show that central brokers gather information by executing informed trades, which is then...  View Details
      Keywords: Broker Networks; Institutional Investors; Asset Prices; Business and Shareholder Relations; Institutional Investing; Information; Knowledge Dissemination; Financial Markets; Asset Pricing
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Francesco Franzoni, Amir Kermani, and Carlo Sommavilla. "The Relevance of Broker Networks for Information Diffusion in the Stock Market." Journal of Financial Economics 134, no. 2 (November 2019): 419–446.
      • April 2019 (Revised October 2020)
      • Case

      Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down

      By: Jill Avery
      On Friday, February 22, 2019, following an unexpected and disappointing earnings report, The Kraft Heinz Company’s stock price fell 27%, wiping out $16 billion in market value. CEO Bernardo Hees had announced that the company had taken a $15.4 billion asset write-down,...  View Details
      Keywords: Brand Management; Brand Value; Brand Equity; Marketing ROI; Brand Storytelling; Intangible Assets; Brand Valuation; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Management; Corporate Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Food; Marketing Communications; Advertising; Private Equity; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; North America
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      Avery, Jill. "Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down." Harvard Business School Case 519-076, April 2019. (Revised October 2020.)
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