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- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets
By: Jonathan Wallen
On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Excess Reconstitution-Day Volume
By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
FTSE/Russell reconstitutes its Russell 1000 and 2000 indexes on the last Friday of June each year, and it announces which stocks will switch indexes roughly two weeks in advance. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) must do all of their rebalancing on Russell’s reconstitution...
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- January 2022
- Case
Fueling a Cleaner Future: ACWA Power and Green Hydrogen
By: Dennis Yao and Alpana Thapar
In January 2020, Paddy Padmanathan, president and CEO of ACWA Power, was reflecting on the company’s sixteen-year record of success and thinking about its future growth plans. Founded in 2004, ACWA Power was a Saudi Arabian developer, owner, and operator of power and...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Segmented Arbitrage
We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the twenty-nine arbitrage spreads that we study is 22%. These low correlations...
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- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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- July 2021
- Article
Augmenting Markets with Mechanisms
By: Samuel Antill and Darrell Duffie
We explain how the common practice of size-discovery trade detracts from overall financial market efficiency. At each of a series of size-discovery sessions, traders report their desired trades, generating allocations of the asset and cash that rely on the most recent...
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- June 2021 (Revised January 2022)
- Case
MicroStrategy: Accounting for Cryptocurrency
By: Jonas Heese and Annelena Lobb
On February 15, 2021, Alina Moss, an analyst who covered the technology company MicroStrategy, pondered a rise in MicroStrategy’s share price. Moss had dialed into the company earnings call. When it ended, Moss had more questions than answers. MicroStrategy had...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Hidden Software and Veiled Value Creation: Illustrations from Server Software Usage
By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
How do you measure the value of a commodity that transacts at a price of zero from an economic standpoint? This study examines the potential for and extent of omission and misattribution in standard approaches to economic accounting with regards to open source...
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- January 2021 (Revised June 2021)
- Supplement
Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and The Cost of Capital (Abridged)
By: Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield and Daniel Fisher
In 2000, Eaton Corporation was a broadly diversified industrial conglomerate. But its strategy was evolving and its focus was narrowing around “power management” and more recently on “intelligent power,” the use of digitally enabled products and services designed to...
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- January 2021 (Revised June 2021)
- Case
Eaton Corporation: Portfolio Transformation and the Cost of Capital (Abridged)
By: Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield and Daniel Fisher
In 2000, Eaton Corporation was a broadly diversified industrial conglomerate. But its strategy was evolving and its focus was narrowing around “power management” and more recently on “intelligent power,” the use of digitally enabled products and services designed to...
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- November 2020
- Article
Casting Conference Calls
By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on...
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- 2020
- Chapter
Climate Change Is Going to Transform Where and How We Build
By: John D. Macomber
As fires, floods, and droughts increasingly threaten homes, businesses, and other institutions, climate risk has become financial risk. This implies that homeowners and investors have been making location decisions without properly pricing the cost of potential peril,...
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- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and...
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- May 2020
- Teaching Note
Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down
By: Jill Avery
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 519-076. On Friday, February 22, 2019, following an unexpected and disappointing earnings report, The Kraft Heinz Company’s stock price fell 27%, wiping out $16 billion in market value. CEO Bernardo Hees had announced that the company had...
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- 2020
- Article
Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability
By: George Serafeim
Combining corporate sustainability performance scores based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data with big data measuring public sentiment about a company’s sustainability performance, I find that the valuation premium paid for companies with strong...
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Keywords:
Sustainability;
ESG;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
Investment Management;
Investment Strategy;
Big Data;
Machine Learning;
Environment;
Environmental Sustainability;
Corporate Governance;
Performance;
Asset Pricing;
Investment;
Management;
Strategy;
Human Capital;
Public Opinion;
Value
- December 2019
- Article
Brokers and Order Flow Leakage: Evidence from Fire Sales
By: Andrea Barbon, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni and Augustin Landier
Using trade-level data, we study whether brokers play a role in spreading order flow information. We focus on large portfolio liquidations, which result in temporary drops in stock prices, and identify the brokers that intermediate these trades. We show that these...
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Keywords:
Predatory Trading;
Back Running;
Fire Sales;
Brokers;
Stocks;
Price;
Information;
Knowledge Dissemination;
Ethics
- 2020
- Working Paper
Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering
By: Ishita Sen and Varun Sharma
Exploiting position-level heterogeneity in regulatory incentives to misreport and novel data on regulators, we document that U.S. life insurers inflate the values of corporate bonds using internal models. We estimate an additional $9-$18 billion decline in regulatory...
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- November 2019
- Article
The Relevance of Broker Networks for Information Diffusion in the Stock Market
By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Amir Kermani and Carlo Sommavilla
This paper shows that the network of relationships between brokers and institutional investors shapes information diffusion in the stock market. We exploit trade-level data to show that central brokers gather information by executing informed trades, which is then...
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- April 2019 (Revised October 2020)
- Case
Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down
By: Jill Avery
On Friday, February 22, 2019, following an unexpected and disappointing earnings report, The Kraft Heinz Company’s stock price fell 27%, wiping out $16 billion in market value. CEO Bernardo Hees had announced that the company had taken a $15.4 billion asset write-down,...
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Keywords:
Brand Management;
Brand Value;
Brand Equity;
Marketing ROI;
Brand Storytelling;
Intangible Assets;
Brand Valuation;
Marketing;
Marketing Strategy;
Brands and Branding;
Management;
Corporate Strategy;
Consumer Behavior;
Food;
Marketing Communications;
Advertising;
Private Equity;
Consumer Products Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States;
North America