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- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138, no. 4 (November 2023): 2327–2389.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Perceptions about Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...
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Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
- February 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code
By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,...
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Keywords:
Restructuring;
Decisions;
Judgments;
Voting;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Financial Crisis;
Public Sector;
Asset Pricing;
Borrowing and Debt;
Corporate Finance;
Credit;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Debt Securities;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Price;
Government Legislation;
Laws and Statutes;
Bids and Bidding;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Valuation;
Real Estate Industry;
India;
Delhi
Mugford, Kristin, William Vrattos, and Radhika Kak. "Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code." Harvard Business School Case 222-071, February 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the...
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Keywords:
United States Treasury;
Monetary Policy;
Yield Curve;
Central Banking;
Interest Rates;
Valuation
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Green Bonding Hypothesis: How Do Green Bonds Enhance the Credibility of Environmental Commitments?
By: Shirley Lu
This paper proposes and provides evidence on a green bonding hypothesis, where green bonds act as a commitment device that subjects firms to institutions holding them accountable to their environmental promises. I find that green-bond issuers face higher climate change...
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Keywords:
Bonding Hypothesis;
Sustainable Finance;
Climate Change;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Environmental Sustainability;
Bonds;
Corporate Accountability
Lu, Shirley. "The Green Bonding Hypothesis: How Do Green Bonds Enhance the Credibility of Environmental Commitments?" SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3898909, December 2021.
- August 2021
- Article
Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their...
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Keywords:
Mutual Funds;
Economics;
Finance;
Measurement and Metrics;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Financial Services Industry
Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, and Umit Gurun. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds." Journal of Finance 76, no. 4 (August 2021): 1699–1730. (Winner of the Best Paper Prize at the University of Cambridge Consortium on Asset Management, 2020; Winner of the Financial Management Association Best Paper Prize in Quantitative Investments, 2020.)
- April–May 2021
- Article
Labor Mobility and Antitakeover Provisions
By: Aiyesha Dey and Joshua White
How do firms protect their human capital? We test whether firms facing an increased threat of being acquired strengthen their antitakeover provisions (ATPs) in order to bond with their employees. We use the adoption of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine (IDD) by U.S....
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Keywords:
Labor Mobility;
Antitakeover Provisions;
Trade Secrets;
Implicit Contracting;
Employee Bonding;
Corporate Governance;
Acquisition;
Human Capital;
Strategy;
Innovation and Invention;
Intellectual Property;
Safety
Dey, Aiyesha, and Joshua White. "Labor Mobility and Antitakeover Provisions." Art. 101388. Journal of Accounting & Economics 71, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2021).
- March 2021
- Supplement
Making Impact Investing Markets: IFC (B)
By: Shawn A. Cole, John Masko and T. Robert Zochowski
In 2018, Thailand’s Bank of Ayudhya (known as Krungsri), was considering whether to participate in the first issue of a new financial instrument from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), known as a gender bond. Building on the success of the Green Bond program...
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Keywords:
Impact Investment;
Development Economics;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Borrowing and Debt;
Credit;
Equity;
Bonds;
Financing and Loans;
Growth and Development;
Emerging Markets;
Non-Governmental Organizations;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Financial Instruments;
Gender;
Financial Services Industry;
Thailand
Cole, Shawn A., John Masko, and T. Robert Zochowski. "Making Impact Investing Markets: IFC (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 221-081, March 2021.
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...
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Keywords:
Consumption-based Habit Formation;
Consumption Euler Equation;
Time-varying Risk Premia;
Inflation Dynamics;
Bond-stock Correlation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Bonds;
Macroeconomics
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender
By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct...
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Keywords:
Executive Gender;
Default;
Recovery Rates;
Debt;
Corporate Bonds;
Conservatism;
Leadership;
Gender;
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Risk Management
Hauptmann, Clarissa, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-087, February 2020.
- February 2018
- Case
Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments
By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding
The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and...
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Keywords:
Pension Fund Investing;
Infrastucture;
Power/Energy;
Credit Enhancement;
Infrastructure;
Project Finance;
Investment Funds;
Emerging Markets;
Nigeria;
Africa
Macomber, John, and Pippa Tubman Armerding. "Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments." Harvard Business School Case 218-071, February 2018.
- January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
- Case
Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer
By: John Macomber, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal
Colombia conceived its 4G (Fourth Generation) Road Program to try to attract $17 billion from the private sector for investment in toll roads. The nation had also created the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI) to oversee multiple investments, and the...
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Keywords:
Private Public Partnerships;
Infrastructure;
Projects;
Finance;
Emerging Markets;
Colombia
Macomber, John, Maria Fernanda Miguel, and Mariana Cal. "Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer." Harvard Business School Case 218-062, January 2018. (Revised January 2021.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Diversification;
Capital Markets;
Global Range
Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- March 2016 (Revised February 2019)
- Case
Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover
By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah L. Abbott
In early 2013, Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC), a large publicly traded producer and distributer of vodka and spirits in Eastern and Central Europe, has suffered significant declines in its financial performance, is at risk of defaulting on its debt,...
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Keywords:
Hostile Takeover;
Accounting Restatement;
Activist Shareholder;
Restructuring;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Financial Statements;
Corporate Governance;
Investment Activism;
Distribution Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States;
Russia;
Europe
Gilson, Stuart C., and Sarah L. Abbott. "Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover." Harvard Business School Case 216-059, March 2016. (Revised February 2019.)
- Article
Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for...
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Keywords:
Fixed Income;
Reaching For Yield;
Financial Intermediation;
Insurance Companies;
Insurance;
Assets;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Risk Management;
Insurance Industry
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Journal of Finance 70, no. 5 (October 2015): 1863–1902.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions
By: Robert C. Merton and Robert T. Thakor
Financial institutions have both investors and customers. Investors, such as those who invest in stocks and bonds or private/public-sector guarantors of institutions, expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return in exchange for the financing and risk-bearing that they...
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Keywords:
Financial Institutions
Merton, Robert C., and Robert T. Thakor. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21258, June 2015.
- Article
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower...
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 105, no. 5 (May 2015): 315–320.
- February 2015 (Revised December 2016)
- Case
Poseidon Carlsbad: Desalination and the San Diego County Water Authority
By: John Macomber
Extreme drought conditions in California have significant impacts on the ability of the San Diego County Water Authority to provide adequate water for current users. Water shortfalls also could curtail the economic development of one of the fastest growing regions in...
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Keywords:
Risk Management;
Partners and Partnerships;
Resource Allocation;
Public Sector;
Private Sector;
Environmental Sustainability;
Policy;
Infrastructure;
Green Technology Industry;
Utilities Industry;
California
Macomber, John. "Poseidon Carlsbad: Desalination and the San Diego County Water Authority." Harvard Business School Case 215-057, February 2015. (Revised December 2016.)