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  • All HBS Web  (49)
    • Faculty Publications  (10)

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    • All HBS Web  (49)
      • Faculty Publications  (10)

      Cognitive Uncertainty Remove Cognitive Uncertainty →

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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice

      By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
      This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...  View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

      By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
      This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the...  View Details
      Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments
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      Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Relative Thinking

      By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
      Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,...  View Details
      Keywords: Relative Thinking; Econometric Models; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
      • October 2019
      • Case

      Feeling Machines: Emotion AI at Affectiva

      By: Shane Greenstein and John Masko
      In 2016, Affectiva—a Boston-based emotion AI software company with a long track record of building emotion-sensing software for market research—had attempted to expand into new verticals by releasing a mobile software development kit (SDK) that downloaders could adapt...  View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Market Research; Business Model; Finance; Revenue; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Market Entry and Exit; Applications and Software; AI and Machine Learning; Information Technology Industry; Auto Industry; United States
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      Greenstein, Shane, and John Masko. "Feeling Machines: Emotion AI at Affectiva." Harvard Business School Case 620-058, October 2019.
      • October 2018 (Revised August 2019)
      • Case

      Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election

      By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein
      Following a contentious presidential race, Donald Trump’s 2016 election destabilized America’s status quo. Academics, journalists, politicians and the public at large examined why Trump had won. Many Americans, inside and outside the government, asserted that a...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Industry; Strategic Alliances (Business); Business And Government; Business And Public Policy; Business And Society; Media Businesses; Media Content; Media Slant; Media Regulation; Social Media; Internet Of Everything; Government Policy; Politics; Political Campaigns; Political Strategy; Political Turmoil; Government; Government Regulation; Security; International Business; International Relations; National Security; Political Elections; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Rights; Problems and Challenges; Globalization; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Government Legislation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict and Resolution; Identity; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; War; Internet and the Web; Public Administration Industry; United States; Russia
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      Abdelal, Rawi, Rafael Di Tella, and Galit Goldstein. "Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election." Harvard Business School Case 719-012, October 2018. (Revised August 2019.)
      • March 2016
      • Article

      The Role of Investor Gut Feel in Managing Complexity and Extreme Risk

      By: Laura Huang
      Securing financial resources from investors is a key challenge for many early stage entrepreneurial ventures. Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding a decision to invest in these ventures, prior research has found that experienced investors rely heavily on their...  View Details
      Keywords: Angel Investors; Gut Feel; Intuition; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Complexity; Decision Making
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      Huang, Laura. "The Role of Investor Gut Feel in Managing Complexity and Extreme Risk." Academy of Management Journal 61, no. 5 (October 2018): 1821–1847.
      • 2018
      • Chapter

      An Integrated Model of Dynamic Problem Solving within Organizational Constraints

      By: Johnathan R. Cromwell, Teresa M. Amabile and Jean-François Harvey
      Book Abstract: Rapid technological change, global competition, and economic uncertainty have all contributed to organizations seeking to improve creativity and innovation. Researchers and businesses want to know what factors facilitate or inhibit creativity in a...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizations; Problems and Challenges; Creativity
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      Cromwell, Johnathan R., Teresa M. Amabile, and Jean-François Harvey. "An Integrated Model of Dynamic Problem Solving within Organizational Constraints." In Individual Creativity in the Workplace, edited by Roni Reiter-Palmon, Victoria Kennel, and James C. Kaufman. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 2018.
      • Article

      Guilt Enhances the Sense of Control and Drives Risky Judgments

      By: Maryam Kouchaki, Christopher Oveis and F. Gino
      The present studies investigate the hypothesis that guilt influences risk-taking by enhancing one's sense of control. Across multiple inductions of guilt, we demonstrate that experimentally induced guilt enhances optimism about risks for the self (Study 1), preferences...  View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Emotions
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      Kouchaki, Maryam, Christopher Oveis, and F. Gino. "Guilt Enhances the Sense of Control and Drives Risky Judgments." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 143, no. 6 (December 2014): 2103–2110.
      • May 2012
      • Supplement

      Columbia's Final Mission (Abridged) (B)

      By: Amy C. Edmondson and Kerry Herman
      Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Teams; Organizational Learning; Ambiguous Threat; Risk and Uncertainty; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Leadership; Corporate Disclosure; Groups and Teams; Decision Making; Organizational Culture; Public Administration Industry; Aerospace Industry
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      Edmondson, Amy C., and Kerry Herman. "Columbia's Final Mission (Abridged) (B) ." Harvard Business School Supplement 612-096, May 2012.
      • March 2006
      • Module Note

      Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 3: Expanding Diversity

      By: Alan D. MacCormack
      Describes the third module of the 30-session Harvard Business School elective course Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World. The course helps students understand the challenges that uncertainty implies for innovation and how to overcome them. The course emphasizes...  View Details
      Keywords: Innovation and Management; Business Processes; Projects; Risk and Uncertainty; Product Development; Managerial Roles; Opportunities; Perspective; Expansion; Goals and Objectives
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      MacCormack, Alan D. "Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 3: Expanding Diversity." Harvard Business School Module Note 606-126, March 2006.
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