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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (123)
      • Faculty Publications  (15)

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice

      By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
      This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...  View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

      By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
      Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...  View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
      • August 2020 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Luckin Coffee (A): Caffeine-fueled Growth?

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Karen Elterman
      This case describes the founding of Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee in 2017 and its path to surpassing Starbucks as the largest coffee chain in China (by number of stores) in 2019. Unlike Starbucks stores, which were designed to be welcoming “third places” for...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Business Earnings; Cost; Cost Management; Financial Statements; Financial Condition; Financial Management; Stocks; Profit; Revenue; Price; Food; Business History; Employment; Brands and Branding; Product Positioning; Marketing Strategy; Business Strategy; Expansion; Competitive Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; Technology Industry; Asia; China
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Karen Elterman. "Luckin Coffee (A): Caffeine-fueled Growth?" Harvard Business School Case 721-370, August 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Collusion in Brokered Markets

      By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers and Richard Lowery
      The U.S. residential real estate agency market presents a puzzle for economic theory: commissions on real estate transactions have remained high for decades even though entry is frequent and costs are low. We model the real estate agency market, and other brokered...  View Details
      Keywords: Real Estate; "Repeated Games"; Collusion; Antitrust; Brokered Markets; Game Theory; Real Estate Industry
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      Hatfield, John William, Scott Duke Kominers, and Richard Lowery. "Collusion in Brokered Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-023, September 2019. (Revised July 2020.)
      • May 2018
      • Article

      The Downside of Downtime: The Prevalence and Work Pacing Consequences of Idle Time at Work

      By: Andrew Brodsky and Teresa M. Amabile
      Although both media commentary and academic research have focused much attention on the dilemma of employees being too busy, this paper presents evidence of the opposite phenomenon, in which employees do not have enough work to fill their time and are left with hours...  View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Working Conditions; Performance Consistency; Performance Productivity
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      Brodsky, Andrew, and Teresa M. Amabile. "The Downside of Downtime: The Prevalence and Work Pacing Consequences of Idle Time at Work." Journal of Applied Psychology 103, no. 5 (May 2018): 496–512.
      • March 2016
      • Article

      To Groupon or Not to Groupon: The Profitability of Deep Discounts

      By: Benjamin Edelman, Sonia Jaffe and Scott Duke Kominers
      We examine the profitability and implications of online discount vouchers, a relatively new marketing tool that offers consumers large discounts when they prepay for participating firms' goods and services. Within a model of repeat experience good purchase, we examine...  View Details
      Keywords: Voucher Discounts; Groupon; Experience Goods; Repeat Purchase; Internet and the Web; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Communications
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      Edelman, Benjamin, Sonia Jaffe, and Scott Duke Kominers. "To Groupon or Not to Groupon: The Profitability of Deep Discounts." Marketing Letters 27, no. 1 (March 2016): 39–53. (First circulated in June 2011. Featured in Working Knowledge: Is Groupon Good for Retailers? Excerpted in HBR Blogs: To Groupon or Not To Groupon: New Research on Voucher Profitability.)
      • Article

      The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

      By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
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      Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
      • 2013
      • Article

      Inflated Applicants: Attribution Errors in Performance Evaluation by Professionals

      By: S. A. Swift, D. Moore, Z. Sharek and F. Gino
      When explaining others' behaviors, achievements, and failures, it is common for people to attribute too much influence to disposition and too little influence to structural and situational factors. We examine whether this tendency leads even experienced professionals...  View Details
      Keywords: Evaluations; Correspondence Bias; Selection Decisions; Attribution; Prejudice and Bias; Selection and Staffing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Evaluation; Cognition and Thinking
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      Swift, S. A., D. Moore, Z. Sharek, and F. Gino. "Inflated Applicants: Attribution Errors in Performance Evaluation by Professionals." e69258. PLoS ONE 8, no. 7 (July 2013).
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Barriers to Environmental Action: Problems and Solutions

      By: Lisa L. Shu and Max Bazerman
      We explore interventions at the individual level and focus on recognized cognitive barriers from behavioral decision-making literature. In particular, we highlight three cognitive barriers that impede sound individual decision making that have particular relevance to...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Consumer Behavior; Environmental Sustainability; Cognition and Thinking; Prejudice and Bias
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      Shu, Lisa L., and Max Bazerman. "Cognitive Barriers to Environmental Action: Problems and Solutions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-046, November 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
      • Supplement

      Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen
      After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Capital Markets; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Banks and Banking; Price; Price Bubble; Contracts; Crisis Management; Market Transactions; Valuation; Shipping Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Albert W. Sheen. "Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-701, July 2010. (Revised August 2021.)
      • June 2010 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert Sheen
      After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices...  View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Financial Crisis; Capital Markets; Financial Liquidity; International Finance; Globalized Markets and Industries; Valuation; Banking Industry; Shipping Industry; Germany
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Albert Sheen. "Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships." Harvard Business School Case 210-058, June 2010. (Revised August 2021.)
      • August 2002
      • Case

      Siebel Systems: Anatomy of a Sale, Part 3

      By: John A. Deighton and Das Narayandas
      How does a $2 million software sale happen? This case traces efforts by Siebel Systems to sell lead management software to discount broker Quick & Reilly. The buying process is mapped out over four years. Covers in detail the last six months--from Siebel's initial...  View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Strategy; Customer Relationship Management; Product Marketing; Information Technology Industry
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      Deighton, John A., and Das Narayandas. "Siebel Systems: Anatomy of a Sale, Part 3." Harvard Business School Case 503-023, August 2002.
      • October 2000
      • Case

      Tree Values

      By: Richard S. Ruback and Kathleen Luchs
      Describes two alternative tree cutting strategies. The first is to cut all trees that are at least 12 inches in diameter at breast height. The second is to thin the forest by cutting less desirable trees immediately and harvesting the crop trees later. The case...  View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Decision Choices and Conditions; Management Practices and Processes; Value Creation; Forestry Industry
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      Ruback, Richard S., and Kathleen Luchs. "Tree Values." Harvard Business School Case 201-031, October 2000.
      • June 1996 (Revised July 1997)
      • Case

      Hostile Bid for Red October, The

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Alan Bigman
      Manatep Bank, a Russian investment bank, has just announced the country's first hostile tender offer for Red October, a confectionery company located in Moscow. As the chief financial officer of the target company, Yuri Yegorov must decide how to respond, how much his...  View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets; Cash; Governance Controls; Financial Condition; Investment Banking; Financial Markets; Trade; Valuation; Financial Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Moscow
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Alan Bigman. "Hostile Bid for Red October, The." Harvard Business School Case 296-084, June 1996. (Revised July 1997.)
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