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- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Soft Rating Adjustments;
Default;
Credit;
Performance Evaluation;
Measurement and Metrics;
Financial Institutions;
Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- February 2023
- Article
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market...
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Keywords:
OTC Markets;
Intermediaries;
Dealers;
Credit Default Swaps;
Risk Sharing;
Financial Markets;
Networks;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty
Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 2 (February 2023): 615–677.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts when borrowers are exposed to volatile transitory or permanent cash flow shocks. We find that volatile transitory shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that can enable firms to...
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Keywords:
Debt Covenants;
Cash Flow Shocks;
Debt Contracting;
Likelihood Of Default;
Cash Flow;
System Shocks
Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised February 2024.)
- July 2021 (Revised December 2021)
- Case
Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu and Lucas Baker
This case explores the decision that Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, was considering in late February 2020 about hedging the exposure of the fund’s portfolio from the potential financial fallout ensuing from an extreme event like...
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Keywords:
Health Pandemics;
Financial Liquidity;
Cost Management;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Risk Management
Siriwardane, Emil N., Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu, and Lucas Baker. "Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)." Harvard Business School Case 222-007, July 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions
By: Robert C. Merton and Richard T. Thakor
This paper analyzes the costs and benefits of a no-fault-default debt structure as an alternative to the typical bankruptcy process. We show that the deadweight costs of bankruptcy can be avoided or substantially reduced through no-fault-default debt, which permits a...
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Keywords:
No-fault Default;
Chapter 11;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Borrowing and Debt;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Financial Institutions;
Contracts
Merton, Robert C., and Richard T. Thakor. "No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28341, January 2021.
- October 2020
- Case
HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks
By: John D. Macomber and Janice Broome Brooks
Following the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day in 2020, the large US corporation Netflix elected to make a "transformational deposit" of $10 million into Hope Credit Union (HCU), a small Black led community development finance institution (CDFI) based in...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in...
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Keywords:
Tax Havens;
Financial Centers;
Geography Of Flows;
Profit Shifting;
Tax Avoidance;
Risk;
Safe Assets;
Hetergeneous Firms;
Endogenous Entry;
Endogenous Monitoring;
Regulatory Arbitrage;
Assets;
Safety;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Capital;
Global Range
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-099, March 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender
By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct...
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Keywords:
Executive Gender;
Default;
Recovery Rates;
Debt;
Corporate Bonds;
Conservatism;
Leadership;
Gender;
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Risk Management
Hauptmann, Clarissa, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-087, February 2020.
- October 2019
- Article
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread...
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Keywords:
Credit Risk;
Derivatives;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Capital Markets;
Credit;
Financial Institutions
Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.
- 2018
- Working Paper
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
Over-the-counter (OTC) markets for financial assets are dominated by a relatively small number of core intermediaries and a large number of peripheral customers. In this paper, we develop a model of trade in a core-periphery network and estimate its key structural...
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Keywords:
OTC Markets;
Intermediaries;
Dealers;
Credit Default Swaps;
Risk Sharing;
Networks;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty
Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Working Paper, August 2018.
- October 2018
- Case
African Bank Investments Limited (A)
By: Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
Less than a year after joining the board of African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL), the newest director finds himself in difficult discussions with other directors about removing the struggling company’s CEO. The case is set in South Africa in mid-2014 as shares in...
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Keywords:
Ethics;
Personal Finance;
Corporate Accountability;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Corporate Governance;
Crisis Management;
Insurance;
Leadership;
Management;
Risk Management;
Banking Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
Insurance Industry;
Africa;
South Africa
Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "African Bank Investments Limited (A)." Harvard Business School Case 319-052, October 2018.
- October 2018
- Supplement
African Bank Investments Limited (B)
By: Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
Less than a year after joining the board of African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL), the newest director finds himself in difficult discussions with other directors about removing the struggling company’s CEO. The case is set in South Africa in mid-2014 as shares in...
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Keywords:
Ethics;
Personal Finance;
Corporate Accountability;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Corporate Governance;
Crisis Management;
Insurance;
Leadership;
Management;
Risk Management;
Banking Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
Insurance Industry;
Africa;
South Africa
Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "African Bank Investments Limited (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 319-053, October 2018.
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns...
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Data Analytics;
Investing;
Loans;
Investment;
Financing and Loans;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Business Model
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- March 2016 (Revised October 2023)
- Case
Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover
By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah L. Abbott
In early 2013, Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC), a large publicly traded producer and distributer of vodka and spirits in Eastern and Central Europe, has suffered significant declines in its financial performance, is at risk of defaulting on its debt,...
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Keywords:
Hostile Takeover;
Accounting Restatement;
Activist Shareholder;
Restructuring;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Financial Statements;
Corporate Governance;
Investment Activism;
Distribution Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States;
Russia;
Europe
Gilson, Stuart C., and Sarah L. Abbott. "Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover." Harvard Business School Case 216-059, March 2016. (Revised October 2023.)
- August 2015
- Article
Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices
By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily...
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Antràs, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices." Journal of Political Economy 123, no. 4 (August 2015): 853–901. (Revised May 2014. Online Appendix.)
- October 2014 (Revised April 2018)
- Supplement
Creditor Activism in Sovereign Debt: Argentina vs. Holdout Investors (B)
By: Laura Alfaro, Gaurav Toshniwal and Hilary White
Keywords:
Argentina;
Debt;
Debt Crisis;
Debt Markets;
Debt Repayment;
Debt Restructuring;
Government Bonds;
Government Debt;
Law;
Default;
Sovereign Debt;
Sovereign Debt Crisis;
Hedge Fund;
Hedge Funds;
Strategy;
Bonds;
Bond Risk;
Debt Management;
Borrowing and Debt;
Governance;
Macroeconomics;
Economics;
Economy;
Government Legislation;
Argentina;
Latin America;
United States
Alfaro, Laura, Gaurav Toshniwal, and Hilary White. "Creditor Activism in Sovereign Debt: Argentina vs. Holdout Investors (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 715-017, October 2014. (Revised April 2018.)
- 2014
- Case
Microfinance Services in Rural Areas--Farmers' Self-reliance Branch of CFPA Microfinance in Shangyi County
By: F. Warren McFarlan, Siqun Yang and Meihua Shen
Microfinance is introduced into China in the 1990s. It had gone through 3 phases since the beginning, namely the pilot phase when all Microfinance practices are sponsored by charity funds based on projects, the promotion phase when the government subsidized some...
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McFarlan, F. Warren, Siqun Yang, and Meihua Shen. "Microfinance Services in Rural Areas--Farmers' Self-reliance Branch of CFPA Microfinance in Shangyi County." 2014.
- 2014
- Teaching Note
Microfinance Services in Rural Areas--Farmers' Self-reliance Branch of CFPA Microfinance in Shangyi County (TN)
By: F. Warren McFarlan, Yang Siqun and Shen Meihua
Microfinance is introduced into China in the 1990s. It had gone through 3 phases since the beginning, namely the pilot phase when all Microfinance practices are sponsored by charity funds based on projects, the promotion phase when the government subsidized some...
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McFarlan, F. Warren, Yang Siqun, and Shen Meihua. "Microfinance Services in Rural Areas--Farmers' Self-reliance Branch of CFPA Microfinance in Shangyi County (TN)." Tsinghua University Teaching Note, 2014.
- December 2010
- Article
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Motivation and Incentives;
Inflation and Deflation;
System Shocks;
Taxation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Framework;
Problems and Challenges;
Interest Rates;
Cost;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Service Operations
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
- February 2010
- Case
Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap
This two-page case demonstrates how to unbundle the cost of credit extensions from product prices by observing the price of a credit default swap. It also explores how credit default swaps work, and how trade creditors are treated under U.S. bankruptcy law. Finally it...
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Keywords:
Trade;
Credit;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Laws and Statutes;
Risk Management;
Auto Industry;
United States
Fruhan, William E. "Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap." Harvard Business School Case 210-056, February 2010.