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All HBS Web
(174)
- Faculty Publications (100)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in...
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Keywords:
Inflation Expectations;
Survey Experiment;
Rational Inattention;
Supermarkets;
Macroeconomics;
Household;
Inflation and Deflation;
Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- February 2017 (Revised January 2018)
- Case
Womenomics in Japan
By: Boris Groysberg, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato and David Lane
This case profiles Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's vigorous attempts to revive Japan's economy, specifically by advocating for a larger role for women in the economy—not as a matter of social policy or gender equity per se, but as an essential element of any solution to...
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Keywords:
Gender Equality;
Japan;
Leadership;
Government-business Relations;
Shinzo Abe;
Economic Growth;
Aging Society;
Womenomics;
Abenomics;
Labor Market Discrimination;
Workplace Culture;
Women And Leadership;
Change Management;
Leading Change;
Gender;
Business and Government Relations;
Growth and Development;
Employment;
Working Conditions
Groysberg, Boris, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato, and David Lane. "Womenomics in Japan." Harvard Business School Case 417-002, February 2017. (Revised January 2018.)
- May 2016
- Supplement
2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page
By: David E. Bell, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred
This brief case is a supplement to “Cresud and Argentina” (515-043) and “Note on Agriculture in Argentina” (515-069). Set in early 2016, it describes developments in Argentina under newly elected President Mauricio Macri, including the country’s return to international...
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Keywords:
Argentina;
" Cresud;
Agriculture;
Economic Reform;
Economic Policy;
Land Investment;
Macri;
Currency;
Agribusiness;
Diversification;
Economy;
Emerging Markets;
Credit;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Investment;
Business and Government Relations;
Government and Politics;
Inflation and Deflation;
Trade;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Argentina;
Buenos Aires;
South America
Bell, David E., Forest Reinhardt, and Natalie Kindred. "2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page." Harvard Business School Supplement 716-077, May 2016.
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a...
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Keywords:
Inflation Expectations;
Bayesian Estimation;
Inflation and Deflation;
Information;
Household;
Behavior;
Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- April 2015
- Tutorial
Introduction to International Macroeconomics
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This tutorial is a web-based, interactive program which will provide students with an introduction to the basic principles of macroeconomics and international macroeconomics.
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- April 2015 (Revised January 2020)
- Case
Japan's Missing Arrow?
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
In late December 2014, Shinzo Abe was elected to another term as the prime minister of Japan. His re-election was largely interpreted as a vote of confidence for his economics policies, collectively referred to as "Abenomics." Comprised of three "arrows," including...
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Keywords:
Currency;
Bonds;
Government Bonds;
Government Debt;
Public Finance;
Quantitative Easing;
Stimulus;
Fiscal Policy;
Fiscal Deficits;
Debt Management;
Debt Reduction;
Abenomics;
Exchange Rate;
Exports;
Reform;
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Policy;
Government Legislation;
Government and Politics;
Asia;
Japan
Alfaro, Laura, and Hilary White. "Japan's Missing Arrow?" Harvard Business School Case 715-050, April 2015. (Revised January 2020.)
- April 2015
- Teaching Note
International Macroeconomics — An Online Tutorial
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Teaching Note to accompany "International Macroeconomics", HBS Tutorial 715-702.
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- October 2014 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002
By: Rafael Di Tella
The case describes Argentina's struggle to establish a credible monetary system under populist pressures and the recurrent use of exchange rate stabilization plans. It focuses on two episodes where there was "too little money" in the economy: during the hyperinflation...
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Keywords:
Debt Crisis;
Hyperinflation;
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Argentina
Di Tella, Rafael. "A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002." Harvard Business School Case 715-019, October 2014. (Revised February 2017.)
- September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
- Case
The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity
By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113...
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Keywords:
United Kingdom;
Keynesian Multiplier;
Inflation;
Inflation Targeting;
Government Spending;
Government Intervention In The Markets;
Monetary Policy;
Financial Crisis Management;
Austerity;
Inequality;
Public Finance;
Government Finance;
Macroeconomics;
Economics;
Government and Politics;
Inflation and Deflation;
Financial Crisis;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Economic Growth;
Business Cycles;
Welfare;
United Kingdom
Alfaro, Laura, Lakshmi Iyer, and Hilary White. "The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity." Harvard Business School Case 715-008, September 2014. (Revised May 2015.)
- December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been...
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Di Tella, Rafael, and Fernanda Miguel. "Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015." Harvard Business School Case 714-036, December 2013. (Revised March 2024.)
- October 2013
- Case
Japan: Abe's Three Arrows?
After the Koizumi government ended in 2006, Japan continued to struggle with slow growth, deflation and, in 2011, a tsunami and nuclear disaster. Following a series of several more unsuccessful prime ministers, Shinzo Abe again became the prime minister in 2012 and...
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- June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
- Teaching Note
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,...
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Keywords:
Exchange Rate;
Inflation;
Inflation Targeting;
Industrialization;
Infrastructure;
Currency;
Capital Controls;
Stimulus;
Commodity Prices;
Manufacturing Costs;
Globalization;
Productivity Growth;
Economics;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Inflation and Deflation;
Macroeconomics;
Public Sector;
Brazil;
South America;
Latin America
- May 2013
- Supplement
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
Assuming office in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was determined to revive Japan's stagnating economy through an ambitious plan known as 'Abenomics.' Under the guidance of the newly appointed governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan...
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Keywords:
Japan;
Inflation Targeting;
Inflation;
Abenomics;
Monetary Policy;
Stimulus;
Quantitative Easing;
Government Bonds;
Macroeconomics;
Inflation and Deflation;
Money;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Japan
Alfaro, Laura, and Hilary White. "Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)." Harvard Business School Supplement 713-086, May 2013.
- Article
Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation
By: Alberto Cavallo
Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official...
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Keywords:
Inflation;
Online Price Index;
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Inflation and Deflation;
Price;
Latin America;
Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto. "Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation." Journal of Monetary Economics 60, no. 2 (March 2013): 152–165.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds"
By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and John Y. Campbell
Sunderam, Adi, Luis M. Viceira, and John Y. Campbell. Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds". Working Paper, 2013.
- October 2012
- Case
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics (Abridged)
By: Laura Alfaro and Rafael Di Tella
In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation...
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- October 2012 (Revised April 2017)
- Case
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth
By: Laura Alfaro, Hilary White and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,...
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Keywords:
Capital Controls;
Inflation;
Exchange Rates;
Stimulus;
Competitiveness;
Productivity Growth;
Foreign Investment;
Infrastructure;
Inflation and Deflation;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Brazil
Alfaro, Laura, Hilary White, and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth." Harvard Business School Case 713-040, October 2012. (Revised April 2017.)
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on...
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Keywords:
Bonds;
Volatility;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Interest Rates;
Inflation and Deflation;
Investment Return;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Cash Flow;
Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.