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- Faculty Publications (100)
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All HBS Web
(174)
- Faculty Publications (100)
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the...
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Keywords:
TIPS;
Breakeven Inflation;
Return Predictability;
Bond Risk Premia;
Risk Management;
Bonds;
Financial Liquidity;
Inflation and Deflation;
United Kingdom;
United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- June 2011
- Teaching Note
The Suzlon Edge (TN)
Teaching Note for 708051.
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- June 2011
- Case
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Financial Institutions;
Interest Rates;
Policy
Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." Harvard Business School Case 711-048, June 2011.
- April 2011 (Revised May 2013)
- Case
South Africa (A): Stuck in the Middle?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
Fifteen years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck...
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Keywords:
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Policy;
Employment;
Wages;
Competition;
South Africa
Vietor, Richard H. K., and Diego Comin. "South Africa (A): Stuck in the Middle?" Harvard Business School Case 711-084, April 2011. (Revised May 2013.)
- April 2011 (Revised December 2012)
- Supplement
South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
15 years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck...
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Keywords:
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Policy;
Employment;
Wages;
Competition;
South Africa
Vietor, Richard H. K., and Diego Comin. "South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?" Harvard Business School Supplement 711-085, April 2011. (Revised December 2012.)
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question?
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Keywords:
Inflation and Deflation;
Money;
Asset Management;
Investment;
Price Bubble;
Policy;
Risk Management
Greenwood, Robin, and Benjamin Steiner. "Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?" Harvard Business School Case 211-095, March 2011. (Revised April 2011.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence...
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Keywords:
Expectations Hypothesis;
Term Structure;
Real Interest Rate Risk;
Inflation Risk;
Inflation-Indexed Bonds;
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Financial Liquidity;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Risk and Uncertainty;
United Kingdom;
United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- December 2010
- Article
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Motivation and Incentives;
Inflation and Deflation;
System Shocks;
Taxation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Framework;
Problems and Challenges;
Interest Rates;
Cost;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Service Operations
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside....
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Cash Flow;
Cost of Capital;
Performance Expectations;
Prejudice and Bias;
Valuation
Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
- June 2010
- Article
Correspondence Bias in Performance Evaluation: Why Grade Inflation Works
By: D. A. Moore, S. A. Swift, Z. S. Sharek and F. Gino
Moore, D. A., S. A. Swift, Z. S. Sharek, and F. Gino. "Correspondence Bias in Performance Evaluation: Why Grade Inflation Works." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 36, no. 6 (June 2010): 843–852.
- 2010
- Chapter
The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,...
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Keywords:
Volatility;
Inflation and Deflation;
Capital Markets;
Currency;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
Financing and Loans;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Risk Management
Viceira, Luis M., and Ricardo Gimeno. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors." Chap. 4 in Spain and the Euro. The First Ten Years, 149–178. Madrid, Spain: Banco de España, 2010.
- March 2009 (Revised May 2013)
- Supplement
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (B)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was...
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Alfaro, Laura, and Akiko Kanno. "Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 709-056, March 2009. (Revised May 2013.)
- 2009
- Other Unpublished Work
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In...
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- Article
Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
By: John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
Campbell, John Y., Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009): 79–120.
- 2009
- Working Paper
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
- March 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Policy Reactions (A)
By: Laura Alfaro and Renee Kim
By March 2008, the U.S. Government and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board had taken various policy measures over the last few months to tackle the subprime mortgage crisis that threatened to drag the economy into a recession. The Bush administration approved a fiscal...
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Keywords:
Financial Crisis;
Inflation and Deflation;
Central Banking;
Mortgages;
Policy;
Business and Government Relations;
United States
Alfaro, Laura, and Renee Kim. "U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Policy Reactions (A)." Harvard Business School Case 708-036, March 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- January 2008 (Revised April 2009)
- Case
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (A)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was...
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Alfaro, Laura, and Akiko Kanno. "Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (A)." Harvard Business School Case 708-017, January 2008. (Revised April 2009.)
- December 2007 (Revised July 2008)
- Case
General Mills (A)
By: Raymond V. Gilmartin, Marco Iansiti and Bianca Buccitelli
General Mills is an 80-year-old company that specializes in consumer foods such as cereal, snacks, baking, and dinner products. Although General Mills is, on the whole, a very successful company, they have, in the recent past, had to face challenges as a result the...
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Keywords:
Competitive Strategy;
Change Management;
Cost Management;
Problems and Challenges;
Inflation and Deflation;
Price;
Consumer Products Industry;
Manufacturing Industry
Gilmartin, Raymond V., Marco Iansiti, and Bianca Buccitelli. "General Mills (A)." Harvard Business School Case 608-004, December 2007. (Revised July 2008.)
- November 2005
- Teaching Note
Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)
- July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation
By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had...
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Keywords:
Economy;
Economic Growth;
Demographics;
Financial Condition;
Inflation and Deflation;
Banks and Banking;
Borrowing and Debt;
Macroeconomics;
Policy;
Government and Politics;
Welfare;
Health Care and Treatment;
Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K. "Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation." Harvard Business School Case 706-004, July 2005. (Revised December 2006.)