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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (79)

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    • All HBS Web  (484)
      • Faculty Publications  (79)

      Demand Estimation Remove Demand Estimation →

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      • March 2022
      • Article

      Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products

      By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
      We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue...  View Details
      Keywords: Online Learning; Product Ranking; Assortment Optimization; Learning; Internet and the Web; Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce
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      Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?

      By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
      Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by...  View Details
      Keywords: Prescription Drugs; Coupons; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Spending; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
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      Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29735, February 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We study empirical patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive data set of defined contribution plans. Using plan-level portfolio allocation data for the near universe of 401(k) plans over the period 2009–2019, we document substantial differences in...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?

      By: Christopher Stanton and Catherine Thomas
      This paper estimates the magnitude and distribution of surplus from the knowledge worker gig economy using data from an online labor market. Labor demand elasticities determine workers’ wages, and buyers’ past market experience shapes both their job posting frequency...  View Details
      Keywords: Gig Economy; Knowledge Workers; Online Platforms; Employment; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Wages
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      Stanton, Christopher, and Catherine Thomas. "Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29477, November 2021.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences

      By: Hendrik Döpper, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller and Joel Stiebale
      We characterize the evolution of markups for consumer products in the United States from 2006 to 2019. We use detailed data on prices and quantities for products in more than 100 distinct product categories to estimate demand systems with flexible consumer preferences....  View Details
      Keywords: Market Power; Markups; Demand Estimation; Consumer Products; Retailers; Product; Price; Demand and Consumers; Consumer Behavior
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      Döpper, Hendrik, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller, and Joel Stiebale. "Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-025, October 2021. (Revised March 2022. Direct download.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy

      By: Samuel Antill and Megan Hunter
      Using an incentivized randomized experiment, we estimate the causal effect of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on consumer demand for the bankrupt firm's products. Knowledge of Hertz's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reduces consumers' willingness-to-pay for Hertz by 35%. We show...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Choice; Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; Structural Estimation; Experimental Economics; Hertz; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Behavior
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      Antill, Samuel, and Megan Hunter. "Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy." Working Paper, August 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
      On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care

      By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
      We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Demand; Amenities; Health Care Quality; Cataracts; Surgery; Health Care and Treatment; Demand and Consumers; Quality; Learning; Mexico
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      Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-110, March 2021.
      • April 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time

      By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
      In retail settings with price promotions, consumers often search across stores and time. However, the search literature typically only models one pass search across stores, ignoring revisits to stores; the choice literature using scanner data has modeled search across...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Search; Multi-pass Search; Price Search; Store Search; Spatial Search; Temporal Search; Spatiotemporal Search; Dynamic Structural Models; MPEC; Price Promotions; Store Loyalty; Consumer Behavior; Price; Spending; Marketing; Mathematical Methods
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      Mojir, Navid, and K. Sudhir. "A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time." Management Science 67, no. 4 (April 2021): 2126–2150.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

      By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
      Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to...  View Details
      Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
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      Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability

      By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando
      We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a...  View Details
      Keywords: Agricultural Extension; Informational Inefficiencies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Information; Mobile Technology; India
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      Cole, Shawn A., and A. Nilesh Fernando. "'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability." Economic Journal 131, no. 633 (January 2021): 192–219.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Corporate Bond Demand

      By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
      We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Insurance; Investment Funds; Financial Liquidity
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      Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Demand." Working Paper, December 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger

      By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
      Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Platform Differentiation; Digital Platforms; Network Effects; Measurement and Metrics; Mergers and Acquisitions; Outcome or Result
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      Farronato, Chiara, Jessica Fong, and Andrey Fradkin. "Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28047, November 2020.
      • September 2020
      • Article

      Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels

      By: David R. Bell, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      We conjecture that for online retailers, experience-centric offline store formats do not simply expand market coverage, but rather, serve to significantly amplify future positive customer behaviors, both online and offline. We term this phenomenon “supercharging” and...  View Details
      Keywords: Retail Operations; Marketing-operations Interface; Omnichannel Retailing; Experience Attributes; Quasi-experimental Methods; Operations; Internet and the Web; Marketing Channels; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry
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      Bell, David R., Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020).
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a...  View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
      • Article

      Sustainability, Business, and Health

      By: George Serafeim, Amanda M. Rischbieth and Howard K. Koh
      The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated that response demands involvement from every sector of society. As a major example, some businesses have stepped up in ways previously unimaginable. Garment companies have repurposed production to face...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Sustainability; Health And Wellness; Corporate Social Responsibility; Health Pandemics; Health; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Corporate Accountability; Health Care and Treatment
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      Serafeim, George, Amanda M. Rischbieth, and Howard K. Koh. "Sustainability, Business, and Health." JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association 324, no. 2 (July 14, 2020): 147–148.
      • June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)

      By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
      In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-069, June 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
      • April 2020 (Revised July 2021)
      • Technical Note

      Quantitative Analysis in Marketing

      By: Sunil Gupta
      Marketing is a combination of art and science that requires both qualitative and quantitative analysis to arrive at effective decisions. This note highlights how quantitative analysis can help in the following marketing decisions: estimating market size, determining...  View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Analysis; Marketing; Decision Making; Analysis
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      Gupta, Sunil. "Quantitative Analysis in Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-091, April 2020. (Revised July 2021.)
      • April 2020 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Kylie Lucas and Mehak Sarang
      From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk established himself as a bold innovator. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of revolutionary start-ups, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make...  View Details
      Keywords: Space Tech; Space Access; Vision; Economies Of Scale; Technological Innovation; Emerging Markets; Commercialization; Finance; Aerospace Industry
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. (Revised October 2021.)
      • April 2020
      • Article

      Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques

      By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
      Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for...  View Details
      Keywords: Incentive-compatible Elicitation; Experimental Methods; Weather Insurance; Rainfall Insurance; Agricultural Extension; Demand and Consumers
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      Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
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