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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (85)

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    • All HBS Web  (509)
      • Faculty Publications  (85)

      Demand Estimation Remove Demand Estimation →

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Using GPT for Market Research

      By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe
      Large language models (LLMs) have quickly become popular as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners who...  View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry
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      Brand, James, Ayelet Israeli, and Donald Ngwe. "Using GPT for Market Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-062, April 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-052, February 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to...  View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-023, October 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the...  View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....  View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Dynamic Pricing and Demand Volatility: Evidence from Restaurant Food Delivery

      By: Alexander J. MacKay, Dennis Svartbäck and Anders G. Ekholm
      Pricing technology that allows firms to rapidly adjust prices has two potential benefits. Prices can respond more rapidly to demand shocks, leading to higher revenues. On the other hand, time-varying prices can be used to smooth out demand across periods, reducing...  View Details
      Keywords: Price; Consumer Behavior; Applications and Software; Volatility
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      MacKay, Alexander J., Dennis Svartbäck, and Anders G. Ekholm. "Dynamic Pricing and Demand Volatility: Evidence from Restaurant Food Delivery." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-007, July 2022. (Revised March 2023.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products

      By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
      We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue...  View Details
      Keywords: Online Learning; Product Ranking; Assortment Optimization; Learning; Internet and the Web; Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce
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      Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?

      By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
      Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by...  View Details
      Keywords: Prescription Drugs; Coupons; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Spending; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
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      Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29735, February 2022.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for nonparametric estimation of investors’ (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Using a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore the heterogeneity in asset...  View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revised April 2023. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?

      By: Christopher Stanton and Catherine Thomas
      This paper estimates the magnitude and distribution of surplus from the knowledge worker gig economy using data from an online labor market. Labor demand elasticities determine workers’ wages, and buyers’ past market experience shapes both their job posting frequency...  View Details
      Keywords: Gig Economy; Knowledge Workers; Online Platforms; Employment; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Wages; Digital Platforms
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      Stanton, Christopher, and Catherine Thomas. "Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29477, November 2021.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences

      By: Hendrik Döpper, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller and Joel Stiebale
      We characterize the evolution of markups for consumer products in the United States from 2006 to 2019. We use detailed data on prices and quantities for products in more than 100 distinct product categories to estimate demand systems with flexible...  View Details
      Keywords: Market Power; Markups; Demand Estimation; Consumer Products; Retailers; Product; Price; Demand and Consumers; Consumer Behavior
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      Döpper, Hendrik, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller, and Joel Stiebale. "Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-025, October 2021. (Revised March 2023. Direct download.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy

      By: Samuel Antill and Megan Hunter
      Using an incentivized randomized experiment, we estimate the causal effect of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on consumer demand for the bankrupt firm's products. Knowledge of Hertz's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reduces consumers' willingness-to-pay for Hertz by 35%. We show...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Choice; Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; Structural Estimation; Experimental Economics; Hertz; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Behavior
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      Antill, Samuel, and Megan Hunter. "Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy." Working Paper, August 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
      On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care

      By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
      We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Demand; Amenities; Health Care Quality; Cataracts; Surgery; Health Care and Treatment; Demand and Consumers; Quality; Learning; Mexico
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      Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-110, March 2021.
      • April 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time

      By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
      In retail settings with price promotions, consumers often search across stores and time. However, the search literature typically only models one pass search across stores, ignoring revisits to stores; the choice literature using scanner data has modeled search across...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Search; Multi-pass Search; Price Search; Store Search; Spatial Search; Temporal Search; Spatiotemporal Search; Dynamic Structural Models; MPEC; Price Promotions; Store Loyalty; Consumer Behavior; Price; Spending; Marketing; Mathematical Methods
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      Mojir, Navid, and K. Sudhir. "A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time." Management Science 67, no. 4 (April 2021): 2126–2150.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

      By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
      Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to...  View Details
      Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
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      Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability

      By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando
      We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a...  View Details
      Keywords: Agricultural Extension; Informational Inefficiencies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Information; Mobile Technology; India
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      Cole, Shawn A., and A. Nilesh Fernando. "'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability." Economic Journal 131, no. 633 (January 2021): 192–219.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Routines in Ridesharing: Implications for Customer Management

      By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
      Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal...  View Details
      Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation
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      Dew, Ryan, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer, and Nachum Sicherman. "Detecting Routines in Ridesharing: Implications for Customer Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-060, March 2023.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing

      By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
      We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...  View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Insurance; Investment Funds; Financial Liquidity
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      Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing." Working Paper, December 2020. (Revised January 2022. Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
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