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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (93)
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Retirement Planning;
Defined Contribution Retirement Plan;
401 (K);
Finance;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment;
Retirement;
Behavioral Finance;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revised April 2024. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?
By: Christopher Stanton and Catherine Thomas
This paper estimates the magnitude and distribution of surplus from the knowledge worker gig economy using data from an online labor market. Labor demand elasticities determine workers’ wages, and buyers’ past market experience shapes both their job posting frequency...
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Keywords:
Gig Economy;
Knowledge Workers;
Online Platforms;
Employment;
Internet and the Web;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Wages;
Digital Platforms
Stanton, Christopher, and Catherine Thomas. "Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29477, November 2021. (Revise and Resubmit at American Economic Review.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences
By: Hendrik Döpper, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller and Joel Stiebale
We characterize the evolution of markups for consumer products in the United States
from 2006 to 2019. We use detailed data on prices and quantities for products in more
than 100 distinct product categories to estimate demand systems with flexible...
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Keywords:
Market Power;
Markups;
Demand Estimation;
Consumer Products;
Retailers;
Product;
Price;
Demand and Consumers;
Consumer Behavior
Döpper, Hendrik, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller, and Joel Stiebale. "Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-025, October 2021. (Revised March 2023. Direct download.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy
By: Samuel Antill and Megan Hunter
Using an incentivized randomized experiment, we estimate the causal effect of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on consumer demand for the bankrupt firm's products. Knowledge of Hertz's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reduces consumers' willingness-to-pay for Hertz by 35%. We show...
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Keywords:
Consumer Choice;
Bankruptcy;
Financial Distress;
Structural Estimation;
Experimental Economics;
Hertz;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Consumer Behavior
Antill, Samuel, and Megan Hunter. "Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy." Working Paper, August 2021. (Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Finance.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime
By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important...
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Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
- July 2021
- Article
Energy Efficiency and Electricity Reliability
By: Eliana Carranza and Robyn C. Meeks
Overloaded electrical systems are a major source of unreliable power. Using a randomized saturation design, we estimate the impact of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) on electricity reliability and household electricity consumption in the Kyrgyz Republic. Greater...
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Keywords:
Energy;
Technology Adoption;
Green Technology;
Consumer Behavior;
Utilities Industry;
Kyrgyzstan
Carranza, Eliana, and Robyn C. Meeks. "Energy Efficiency and Electricity Reliability." Review of Economics and Statistics 103, no. 3 (July 2021): 461–475.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care
By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases...
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Keywords:
Health Care Demand;
Amenities;
Health Care Quality;
Cataracts;
Surgery;
Health Care and Treatment;
Demand and Consumers;
Quality;
Learning;
Mexico
Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-110, March 2021.
- April 2021
- Article
A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time
By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
In retail settings with price promotions, consumers often search across stores and time. However, the search literature typically only models one pass search across stores, ignoring revisits to stores; the choice literature using scanner data has modeled search across...
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Keywords:
Consumer Search;
Multi-pass Search;
Price Search;
Store Search;
Spatial Search;
Temporal Search;
Spatiotemporal Search;
Dynamic Structural Models;
MPEC;
Price Promotions;
Store Loyalty;
Consumer Behavior;
Price;
Spending;
Marketing;
Mathematical Methods
Mojir, Navid, and K. Sudhir. "A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time." Management Science 67, no. 4 (April 2021): 2126–2150.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to...
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Keywords:
Contest Design;
Information Preferences;
Consumer Demand;
Sports;
Entertainment;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Demand and Consumers;
Outcome or Result
Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
- January 2021
- Article
'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability
By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando
We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a...
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Keywords:
Agricultural Extension;
Informational Inefficiencies;
Technology Adoption;
Agribusiness;
Information;
Mobile Technology;
India
Cole, Shawn A., and A. Nilesh Fernando. "'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability." Economic Journal 131, no. 633 (January 2021): 192–219.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing
By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...
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Keywords:
Corporate Bonds;
Demand Systems;
Insurance Companies;
Mutual Funds;
Liquidity;
Bonds;
Insurance;
Investment Funds;
Financial Liquidity
Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing." Working Paper, December 2020. (Revised January 2022. Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger
By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We...
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Keywords:
Platform Differentiation;
Digital Platforms;
Network Effects;
Measurement and Metrics;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Outcome or Result
Farronato, Chiara, Jessica Fong, and Andrey Fradkin. "Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28047, November 2020.
- September 2020
- Article
Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels
By: David R. Bell, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
We conjecture that for online retailers, experience-centric offline store formats do not simply expand market coverage, but rather, serve to significantly amplify future positive customer behaviors, both online and offline. We term this phenomenon “supercharging” and...
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Keywords:
Retail Operations;
Marketing-operations Interface;
Omnichannel Retailing;
Experience Attributes;
Quasi-experimental Methods;
Operations;
Internet and the Web;
Marketing Channels;
Consumer Behavior;
Retail Industry
Bell, David R., Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020).
- September–October 2020
- Article
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a...
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Keywords:
Churn Management;
Defection Prediction;
Loss Function;
Stochastic Gradient Boosting;
Customer Relationship Management;
Consumer Behavior;
Profit
Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
- Article
Sustainability, Business, and Health
By: George Serafeim, Amanda M. Rischbieth and Howard K. Koh
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated that response demands involvement from every sector of society. As a major example, some businesses have stepped up in ways previously unimaginable. Garment companies have repurposed production to face...
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Keywords:
COVID;
COVID-19;
Sustainability;
Health And Wellness;
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Health Pandemics;
Health;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Corporate Accountability;
Health Care and Treatment
Serafeim, George, Amanda M. Rischbieth, and Howard K. Koh. "Sustainability, Business, and Health." JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association 324, no. 2 (July 14, 2020): 147–148.
- June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
- Case
Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)
By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases...
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Keywords:
Accounting;
Financial Reporting;
Financial Statements;
Finance;
Governance;
Corporate Accountability;
Corporate Governance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Leasing;
Accounting Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
North and Central America;
United States
Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-069, June 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
- April 2020 (Revised June 2022)
- Technical Note
Quantitative Analysis in Marketing
By: Sunil Gupta
Marketing is a combination of art and science that requires both qualitative and quantitative analysis to arrive at effective decisions. This note highlights how quantitative analysis can help in the following marketing decisions: estimating market size, determining...
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Gupta, Sunil. "Quantitative Analysis in Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-091, April 2020. (Revised June 2022.)
- April 2020 (Revised October 2021)
- Case
SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access
By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Kylie Lucas and Mehak Sarang
From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk established himself as a bold innovator. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of revolutionary start-ups, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make...
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Keywords:
Space Tech;
Space Access;
Vision;
Economies Of Scale;
Technological Innovation;
Emerging Markets;
Commercialization;
Finance;
Aerospace Industry
Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. (Revised October 2021.)
- April 2020
- Article
Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques
By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for...
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Keywords:
Incentive-compatible Elicitation;
Experimental Methods;
Weather Insurance;
Rainfall Insurance;
Agricultural Extension;
Demand and Consumers
Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs);
Demand and Consumers;
Investment;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26608, January 2020. (Accepted at the Review of Economic Studies. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-122, May 2020. Direct download. Revised July 2021.)