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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (231)
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    • All HBS Web  (231)
      • Faculty Publications  (100)

      Economic Slowdown and Stagnation Remove Economic Slowdown and Stagnation →

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      • 2023
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Unprecedented: Remote Work and the Strange Economy of 2023

      By: Randolph B. Cohen
      The low unemployment rate which suggests a strong economy and the low productivity and GDP growth that seems more consistent with less robust conditions sit uneasily together. It's a mystery! But it may be that societal changes like remote work can reconcile the...  View Details
      Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Employment; Working Conditions
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      Cohen, Randolph B. "Unprecedented: Remote Work and the Strange Economy of 2023." July 2023. (LinkedIn Articles.)
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Tractor Supply Co

      By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto
      In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Retail Industry
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      Ager, David L., and Michael A. Roberto. "Tractor Supply Co." Harvard Business School Case 923-302, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half...  View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach." Working Paper, May 2023. (Preliminary draft.)
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Regulatory Spillover and Workplace Racial Inequality

      By: Letian Zhang
      This paper suggests that affirmative action bans in the U.S. public sector may influence racial inequality in the private sector. Since the 1990s, nine states have banned affirmative action practice in public universities and state governments. Though these bans have...  View Details
      Keywords: Inequality; Regulation; Law; Organizational Norm; CEO; Affirmative Action; Organizations; Private Sector; Equality and Inequality; Diversity; Race; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Zhang, Letian. "Regulatory Spillover and Workplace Racial Inequality." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 3 (September 2022): 595–629.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act on the U.S. Economy

      By: Joe Long, Carlo Medici, Nancy Qian and Marco Tabellini
      This paper studies the impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act, which banned Chinese immigration to the United States after 1882, across U.S. counties between 1870 and 1940. We find that the Act reduced labor supply for both the Chinese and other groups (i.e., white and...  View Details
      Keywords: Immigration; Growth; Productivity; Business History; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Business and Government Relations; Prejudice and Bias; Government Legislation; United States
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      Long, Joe, Carlo Medici, Nancy Qian, and Marco Tabellini. "The Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act on the U.S. Economy." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-008, March 2022.
      • Article

      Weak Corporate Insolvency Rules: The Missing Driver of Zombie Lending

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      "Zombie lending"—lending to less-productive firms at subsidized rates—can help banks with misaligned incentives in the short run, but it prolongs economic downturns. We propose that inefficient resolution of insolvency is a significant contributor to this problem. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Zombie Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Financing and Loans; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Weak Corporate Insolvency Rules: The Missing Driver of Zombie Lending." AEA Papers and Proceedings 112 (May 2022): 516–520.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research

      By: Ofer Mintz, Imran S. Currim and Rohit Deshpandé
      Purpose: This paper aims to propose a new country-level construct, national customer orientation, to provide a benchmark for global headquartered managers’ decisions and scholars investigating cross-national research.
      Design/methodology/approach: A conceptual...  View Details
      Keywords: International Marketing; Macro-marketing; Marketing; Financial Crisis; Customer Focus and Relationships; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Mintz, Ofer, Imran S. Currim, and Rohit Deshpandé. "National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research." European Journal of Marketing 56, no. 4 (April 2022): 1014–1041.
      • March 2022
      • Background Note

      The Labor Market as COVID Recedes: A Great Resignation or a Great Realization?

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, William R. Kerr and Ria Mazumdar
      Keywords: Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Economic Sectors; Economy; United States
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      Fuller, Joseph B., William R. Kerr, and Ria Mazumdar. "The Labor Market as COVID Recedes: A Great Resignation or a Great Realization?" Harvard Business School Background Note 822-113, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Book

      The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth

      By: Michael J. Andrews, Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner and Scott Stern
      We live in an era in which innovation and entrepreneurship seem ubiquitous, particularly in regions like Silicon Valley, Boston, and the Research Triangle Park. But many metrics of economic growth, such as productivity growth and business dynamism, have been at best...  View Details
      Keywords: Productivity Growth; Production Technologies; Innovation and Invention; Entrepreneurship; Economic Growth; Competition; Organizational Design; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Andrews, Michael J., Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern, eds. The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
      • 2021
      • Chapter

      Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster

      By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
      This article draws lessons from the business support policies pursued in the COVID-19 pandemic to guide policy design for the next disaster. We contrast the performance of the Paycheck Protection Program to the Main Street Lending Program to illustrate how design...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Policy; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financing and Loans; United States
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      Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Adi Sunderam, and Eric Zwick. "Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster." In Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy, edited by Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz, 52–77. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2021.
      • November 2021 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised January 2023.)
      • November 2021 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      West Virginia: Finding the Right Path Forward

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Christine Keung and Reggie Smith
      Once at the center of the American economy, the state of West Virginia had seen decades of decline as its coal industry fell on hard times. With beautiful but challenging topography, a proud but shrinking population, and a new scourge of the opioid epidemic, the...  View Details
      Keywords: Population Health; Geographic Location; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Problems and Challenges; Social Issues; West Virginia
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., Christine Keung, and Reggie Smith. "West Virginia: Finding the Right Path Forward." Harvard Business School Case 722-024, November 2021. (Revised May 2022.)
      • October 2021 (Revised September 2022)
      • Case

      GoPro: Becoming a Subscription Hero

      By: Elie Ofek, Marco Bertini and Nicole Tempest Keller
      In 2021, Nick Woodman, founder and CEO of GoPro, was reviewing the company’s subscription offering, considering whether to extend it beyond benefits that were directly related to the company’s iconic camera. Founded in 2002, GoPro had gained renown for its innovative...  View Details
      Keywords: Subscription Model; Pricing; Lifestyle Brands; Value Proposition; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; California
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      Ofek, Elie, Marco Bertini, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "GoPro: Becoming a Subscription Hero." Harvard Business School Case 522-022, October 2021. (Revised September 2022.)
      • July–August 2021
      • Article

      Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes

      By: Annamaria Conti and Maria P. Roche
      We assess the heterogeneous impact of economic downturns on individuals’ decisions to bring high-technology ideas to the market in the form of new ventures. We thereby examine how worsening labor market conditions influence individuals’ opportunity costs of starting...  View Details
      Keywords: Necessity Entrepreneurship; Economic Conditions; Recessions; High-tech Startups; Opportunity Costs; Entrepreneurship; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Business Startups; Information Technology; Performance; Labor
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      Conti, Annamaria, and Maria P. Roche. "Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes." Organization Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 965–986.
      • February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
      • Supplement

      The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
      By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Global Range; Crisis Management; Disruption
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 721-434, February 2021. (Revised March 2023.)
      • July 2020
      • Teaching Note

      COVID-19: The Global Shutdown

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeaacted...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Trade; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Economy; Policy; Governance; Economic Systems; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Sectors
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "COVID-19: The Global Shutdown." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 321-021, July 2020.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

      By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
      Despite theoretical predictions to the contrary, corporate innovation is strongly pro-cyclical. In this paper, we compare innovation in the economy as a whole to that of firms backed by venture capital (VC), a source of capital associated with the most impactful young...  View Details
      Keywords: Recessions; Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Patents; Business Cycles; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020. (Revised July 2023.)
      • May 2020 (Revised July 2020)
      • Case

      COVID-19: The Global Shutdown

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeated society,...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Economy; Economic Systems; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Sectors; Health Pandemics
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "COVID-19: The Global Shutdown." Harvard Business School Case 320-108, May 2020. (Revised July 2020.)
      • January 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the...  View Details
      Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Metals and Minerals; Production; Economy; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 320-054, January 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling...  View Details
      Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; China
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Case 320-039, November 2019.
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