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- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...
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Keywords:
Black Box Explanations;
Bayesian Modeling;
Decision Making;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- Article
Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations
By: Sushant Agarwal, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in critical domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there has been a growing emphasis on developing techniques for explaining these black boxes in a post hoc manner. In this work, we analyze two...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Black Box Explanations;
Decision Making;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Information Technology
Agarwal, Sushant, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 38th (2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., Kevin Wu Han, and Guillaume Basse. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-100, March 2021.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Inattentive Inference
By: Thomas Graeber
This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning someone’s effort from their observable performance may require accounting for the otherwise irrelevant role of...
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Keywords:
Belief Formation;
Attention;
Bounded Rationality;
Values and Beliefs;
Information;
Mathematical Methods
Graeber, Thomas. "Inattentive Inference." Working Paper, January 2022. (R&R at Journal of the European Economic Association.)
- Article
Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses
By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to...
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Rawal, Kaivalya, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 33 (2020).
- 2020
- Working Paper
Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-034, September 2020.
- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Statistics;
Econometric Analyses;
Experimental Methods;
Data Analysis;
Data Analytics;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Mathematical Methods
Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
- August 2020
- Technical Note
Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing
This note describes sampling and t-tests, two fundamental statistical concepts.
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Keywords:
Statistics;
Econometric Analyses;
Experimental Methods;
Data Analysis;
Data Analytics;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Surveys;
Mathematical Methods
Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Willy C. Shih, and Michael W. Toffel. "Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-044, August 2020.
- April 2020
- Article
Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques
By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for...
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Keywords:
Incentive-compatible Elicitation;
Experimental Methods;
Weather Insurance;
Rainfall Insurance;
Agricultural Extension;
Demand and Consumers
Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
- March 2020
- Module Note
The Role of Experiments in Organizations
By: Michael Luca
This note outlines the structure and content of a four-class module—The Role of Experiments in Organizations—that is designed to introduce students to the role of experimental methods in managerial decisions.
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Luca, Michael. "The Role of Experiments in Organizations." Harvard Business School Module Note 920-044, March 2020.
- Article
Statistical Physics of Human Cooperation
By: Matjaž Perc, Jillian J. Jordan, David G. Rand, Zhen Wang, Stefano Boccaletti and Attila Szolnoki
Extensive cooperation among unrelated individuals is unique to humans, who often sacrifice personal benefits for the common good and work together to achieve what they are unable to execute alone. The evolutionary success of our species is indeed due, to a large...
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Keywords:
Human Cooperation;
Evolutionary Game Theory;
Public Goods;
Reward;
Punishment;
Tolerance;
Self-organization;
Pattern Formation;
Cooperation;
Behavior;
Game Theory
Perc, Matjaž, Jillian J. Jordan, David G. Rand, Zhen Wang, Stefano Boccaletti, and Attila Szolnoki. "Statistical Physics of Human Cooperation." Physics Reports 687 (May 8, 2017): 1–51.
- December 2016
- Article
The Effects of Endowment Size and Strategy Method on Third Party Punishment
By: Jillian J. Jordan, Katherine McAuliffe and David G. Rand
Numerous experiments have shown that people often engage in third-party punishment (3PP) of selfish behavior. This evidence has been used to argue that people respond to selfishness with anger, and get utility from punishing those who mistreat others. Elements of the...
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Keywords:
Third-party Punishment;
Norm-enforcement;
Strategy Method;
Economic Games;
Cooperation;
Emotions;
Fairness
Jordan, Jillian J., Katherine McAuliffe, and David G. Rand. "The Effects of Endowment Size and Strategy Method on Third Party Punishment." Experimental Economics 19, no. 4 (December 2016): 741–763.
- Article
Gathering Data for Archival, Field, Survey, and Experimental Accounting Research
By: Robert Bloomfield, Mark W. Nelson and Eugene F. Soltes
In the published proceedings of the first Journal of Accounting Research Conference, Vatter (1966) lamented that “Gathering direct and original facts is a tedious and difficult task, and it is not surprising that such work is avoided.” For the 50th JAR Conference,...
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Keywords:
Archival;
Data;
Experiment;
Empirical Methods;
Field Study;
Data and Data Sets;
Surveys;
Financial Reporting
Bloomfield, Robert, Mark W. Nelson, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Gathering Data for Archival, Field, Survey, and Experimental Accounting Research." Journal of Accounting Research 54, no. 2 (May 2016): 341–395.
- March 2016 (Revised January 2020)
- Teaching Note
Behavioural Insights Team (A) and (B)
By: Michael Luca and Patrick Rooney
The Behavioural Insights Team case introduces students to the concept of choice architecture and the value of experimental methods (sometimes called A/B testing) within organizational contexts. The exercise provides an opportunity for students to apply these principles...
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- March 2016
- Supplement
Advertising Experiments at RestaurantGrades
By: Weijia Dai, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca
This exercise provides students with a data set consisting of results from a hypothetical experiment, and asks students to make recommendations based on the data. Through this process, the exercise teaches students to analyze, design, and interpret experiments. The...
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- March 2015 (Revised January 2020)
- Case
Behavioural Insights Team (A)
By: Michael Luca and Patrick Rooney
The Behavioural Insights Team case introduces students to the concept of choice architecture and the value of experimental methods (sometimes called A/B testing) within organizational contexts. The exercise provides an opportunity for students to apply these principles...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Economics;
Experiments;
Choice Architecture;
Public Entrepreneurship;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Consumer Behavior;
Taxation;
Economics;
Public Administration Industry;
United Kingdom
Luca, Michael, and Patrick Rooney. "Behavioural Insights Team (A)." Harvard Business School Case 915-024, March 2015. (Revised January 2020.)
- March 2015 (Revised January 2020)
- Supplement
Behavioural Insights Team (B)
By: Michael Luca and Patrick Rooney
The Behavioural Insights Team case introduces students to the concept of choice architecture and the value of experimental methods (sometimes called A/B testing) within organizational contexts. The exercise provides an opportunity for students to apply these principles...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Economics;
Experiments;
Choice Architecture;
Public Entrepreneurship;
United Kingdom
Luca, Michael, and Patrick Rooney. "Behavioural Insights Team (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 915-025, March 2015. (Revised January 2020.)
- August 2012
- Article
Organ Allocation Policy and the Decision to Donate
By: Judd B. Kessler and Alvin E. Roth
Organ donations from deceased donors (cadavers) provide the majority of transplanted organs in the United States, and one deceased donor can save numerous lives by providing multiple organs. Nevertheless, most Americans are not registered organ donors despite the...
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Keywords:
Organ Donation;
Health;
Philanthropy and Charitable Giving;
Decision Making;
Resource Allocation;
Mathematical Methods;
United States
Kessler, Judd B., and Alvin E. Roth. "Organ Allocation Policy and the Decision to Donate." American Economic Review 102, no. 5 (August 2012): 2018–2047.
- September 2011 (Revised July 2012)
- Case
Building Watson: Not So Elementary, My Dear!
By: Willy Shih
This case is set inside IBM Research's efforts to build a computer that can successfully take on human challengers playing the game show Jeopardy! It opens with the machine named Watson offering the incorrect answer "Toronto" to a seemingly simple question during the...
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Keywords:
Technological Innovation;
Standards;
Product Development;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Mathematical Methods;
Research and Development;
Information Technology
Shih, Willy. "Building Watson: Not So Elementary, My Dear!" Harvard Business School Case 612-017, September 2011. (Revised July 2012.)
- 2011
- Working Paper
Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals
By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra
We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the U.S. over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the "Reagan revolution" in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about...
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Keywords:
Crime and Corruption;
Economy;
Moral Sensibility;
Mathematical Methods;
Opportunities;
Behavior;
United States
Di Tella, Rafael, and Juan Dubra. "Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17309, August 2011.