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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (108)
    • Faculty Publications  (9)

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    • All HBS Web  (108)
      • Faculty Publications  (9)

      Forecast Optimism Remove Forecast Optimism →

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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Government Shareholdings in Brokerage Firms and Analyst Research Quality

      By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin
      During times when the Chinese government wished to prop up the market, sell-side analysts from brokerages with significant government ownership issued relatively less pessimistic (or more optimistic) earnings forecasts, earnings-forecast revisions, and stock...  View Details
      Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets
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      Cao, Sheng, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Huifang Yin. "Government Shareholdings in Brokerage Firms and Analyst Research Quality." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-095, March 2018. (Revised June 2021.)
      • March 2017 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing

      By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani
      Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics; Pricing; Data; Service Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; United States
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      Ferreira, Kris, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing." Harvard Business School Case 617-059, March 2017. (Revised March 2022.)
      • Winter 2016
      • Article

      Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

      By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
      We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time...  View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry
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      Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
      • October 2013
      • Article

      How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

      By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
      While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input...  View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods
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      Puranam, Phanish, Ranjay Gulati, and Sourav Bhattacharya. "How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies." Strategic Management Journal 34, no. 10 (October 2013): 1145–1161.
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      ~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matthew Weinzierl
      Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
      • April 2010
      • Case

      Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug

      By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
      Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several...  View Details
      Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-183, April 2010.
      • 01 Jan 1977
      • Conference Presentation

      Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

      By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry
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      Sebenius, James K., and Richard Lehman. "Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data." Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, American Geophysical Union, January 01, 1977.
      • 1972
      • Chapter

      Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

      By: Michael Jensen
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
      Citation
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      Jensen, Michael. "Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance." In Mathematical Methods in Finance, edited by G. P. Szego and Karl Shell. North-Holland Publishing Company, 1972.
      • Teaching Interest

      Executive Education: Finance for Senior Executives

      By: Malcolm P. Baker

      Finance for Senior Executives provides the frameworks to strategically use financial resources and position your company for future success. By examining corporate finance from both internal and external perspectives, this HBS Executive Education View Details

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