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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (56)
- April 2016
- Teaching Note
Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016
By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen
This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television...
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- January 2016
- Teaching Note
Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency
By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice
This case examines a start-up service provider that helps clients improve the energy efficiency of their factories, warehouses, and commercial and office spaces by integrating and installing lighting, heating, and cooling technologies. The company seeks to double...
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- Article
The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential
By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton
Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether...
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Kupor, Daniella, Zakary L. Tormala, and Michael I. Norton. "The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 55 (November 2014): 210–216.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Staffing;
Gaming;
Gaming Industry;
Hotel Industry;
Decision Making;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Human Resources;
Selection and Staffing;
Entertainment;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Operations;
Service Delivery;
Service Operations;
Accommodations Industry;
Travel Industry;
Tourism Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- Article
Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering
By: Colleen Giblin, Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton
The mind wanders, even when people are attempting to make complex decisions. We suggest that such mind wandering—allowing one's thoughts to wander until the "correct" choice comes to mind—can positively impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare...
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Giblin, Colleen, Carey K. Morewedge, and Michael I. Norton. "Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering." Art. 598. Frontiers in Psychology 4 (September 6, 2013).
- February 2013
- Article
Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews
By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino
Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such...
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Simonsohn, U., and F. Gino. "Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews." Psychological Science 24, no. 2 (February 2013): 219–224.
- 2013
- Book
Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy
This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive...
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Keywords:
Governance;
Debt Securities;
Valuation;
Performance Evaluation;
Financial Statements;
Credit;
Business Ventures;
Strategy;
Financial Condition;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Forecasting and Prediction
Palepu, Krishna G., and Paul M. Healy. Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases. 5th ed. Cengage Learning, 2013.
- 2012
- Working Paper
~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation
Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Cost;
Framework;
Policy;
Taxation;
Analytics and Data Science;
Performance Efficiency;
United States
Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
- July – August 2011
- Article
What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors...
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Keywords:
Competition;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Industry Growth;
Judgments;
Performance;
Valuation;
Price;
Quality;
Innovation and Invention;
Organizational Culture;
Competency and Skills;
Surveys
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stocks;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return;
Investment Portfolio;
Price;
Performance Evaluation
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." December 2010. (Appendix. Previously titled "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15948.)
- August 2010
- Case
Flash Memory, Inc.
By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Financial Management;
Cash Flow;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Capital Budgeting;
Computer Industry;
Electronics Industry;
United States
Fruhan, William E., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-230, August 2010.
- 2010
- Article
The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are
By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni and Max Bazerman
This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and recollection is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Values and Beliefs;
Framework;
Research;
Behavior;
Cognition and Thinking;
Perception;
Prejudice and Bias
Tenbrunsel, A. E., K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are." Research in Organizational Behavior 30 (2010): 153–173.
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be...
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Keywords:
Earnings Management;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Business Subsidiaries;
Restructuring;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Initial Public Offering;
Price;
Reports;
Research
Feldman, Emilie Rose, Stuart Gilson, and Belen Villalonga. "When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-102, May 2010.
- April 2010
- Case
Jones Electrical Distribution
By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder
Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the...
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Keywords:
Financial Analysis;
Forecasting;
Financing;
Bank Loans;
Growth Management;
Cash Flow;
Financing and Loans;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Distribution Industry
Piper, Thomas R., and Jeffrey DeVolder. "Jones Electrical Distribution." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-179, April 2010.
- June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
- Supplement
Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance...
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Keywords:
Motivation and Incentives;
Business Earnings;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- Fourth Quarter 2007
- Article
Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk
By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can...
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Keywords:
Credit;
Investment;
Sovereign Finance;
Risk Management;
Emerging Markets;
Market Transactions;
Mathematical Methods;
Valuation
Gray, Dale . F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk." Special Issue on Credit Analysis. Journal of Investment Management 5, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2007): 5–28.
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are
By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman
This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Ethics;
Behavior;
Cognition and Thinking;
Perception;
Prejudice and Bias
Tenbrunsel, Ann E., Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max H. Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-012, August 2007. (revised January 2009, previously titled "Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are: A Temporal Explanation.")
- April 2007 (Revised April 2008)
- Case
Corrections Corporation of America
By: Edward J. Riedl
This case illustrates a comprehensive valuation of a publicly traded firm specializing in building and managing prisons. Students must assess the firm's strategy and risks, evaluate key financial reports, derive forecasts of future performance, and use these forecasts...
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Keywords:
Financial Statements;
Buildings and Facilities;
For-Profit Firms;
Crime and Corruption;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Risk Management;
Valuation;
Construction Industry;
Public Administration Industry;
Service Industry
Riedl, Edward J. "Corrections Corporation of America." Harvard Business School Case 107-071, April 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
- February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
- Supplement
Multifactor Models (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker