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      • Faculty Publications  (1,015)

      Forecasting and Prediction Remove Forecasting and Prediction →

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      • 2023
      • Article

      On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

      By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Gao, Ruijiang, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 40th (2023): 10727–10743.
      • Article

      Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

      By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon
      We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and...  View Details
      Keywords: ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Disclosure; ESG Ratings; ESG Reporting; ESG Disclosure Metrics; Sustainability; Investments; Disagreement; Rating Disagreement; Ratings; Environmental Sustainability; Social Issues; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance; News; Investment; Financial Markets; Stocks; Price
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      Serafeim, George, and Aaron Yoon. "Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement." Special Issue on RAST 2022 Conference. Review of Accounting Studies 28, no. 3 (September 1, 2023): 1500–1530.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Mapping Organizational-Level Networks Using Individual-Level Connections: Evidence from Online Professional Networks

      By: Shelley Xin Li, Frank Nagle and Aner Zhou
      Organization-level networks facilitate the flow of information and business activities in the economy. Prior research relies solely on high-level connections to measure these networks. Therefore, to understand the role of employee connections at all job levels in...  View Details
      Keywords: Networks; Value; Social and Collaborative Networks; Innovation and Invention; Knowledge Sharing; Employees; Social Media
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      Li, Shelley Xin, Frank Nagle, and Aner Zhou. "Mapping Organizational-Level Networks Using Individual-Level Connections: Evidence from Online Professional Networks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-010, August 2023.
      • August 2023
      • Article

      Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?

      By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
      We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I...  View Details
      Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Soft Rating Adjustments; Default; Credit; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Institutions; Risk Management
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      Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How People Use Statistics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis...  View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance
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      Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
      • 2023
      • Other Unpublished Work

      If 3 Was 9

      By: Randolph B. Cohen
      One determinant of where economies and markets are headed is how well we handle the climate crisis. Headlines on the climate tend to emphasize two points. First, average global temps are rising, with it being the hottest summer in 1,000 centuries per some estimates....  View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Measurement and Metrics
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      Cohen, Randolph B. "If 3 Was 9." August 2023. (LinkedIn Articles.)
      • July 2023
      • Case

      Crocs: Using Community-Centric Marketing to Make Ugly Iconic

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Anne V. Wilson
      In 2022, the Crocs Classic Clog was the best-selling item of clothing on Amazon, the brand was one of the fastest growing brands in the U.S., and global net revenue had increased to approximately $3.6 billion. By most accounts, Crocs had become the “it” shoe. Crocs...  View Details
      Keywords: Brands and Branding; Product Development; Growth and Development; Customer Value and Value Chain; Digital Marketing; Digital Strategy; Segmentation; Advertising; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Anne V. Wilson. "Crocs: Using Community-Centric Marketing to Make Ugly Iconic." Harvard Business School Case 524-006, July 2023.
      • July 2023 (Revised July 2023)
      • Background Note

      Generative AI Value Chain

      By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins
      Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that can create new content (e.g., text, image, or audio) in response to a prompt from a user. ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude are examples of text generating AIs, and DALL-E, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion are...  View Details
      Keywords: AI; Artificial Intelligence; Model; Hardware; Data Centers
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      Wu, Andy, and Matt Higgins. "Generative AI Value Chain." Harvard Business School Background Note 724-355, July 2023. (Revised July 2023.)
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

      By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
      In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still...  View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
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      Beutler, Dawson, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet. "Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 7 (July 2023): 144–158.
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Optimalen Capital

      By: Malcolm Baker, Elisabeth Kempf and Jonathan Wallen
      A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker...  View Details
      Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model
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      Baker, Malcolm, Elisabeth Kempf, and Jonathan Wallen. "Optimalen Capital." Harvard Business School Case 223-099, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

      By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias
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      Menghani, Neil, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Tractor Supply Co

      By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto
      In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening...  View Details
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      Ager, David L., and Michael A. Roberto. "Tractor Supply Co." Harvard Business School Case 923-302, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

      By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach...  View Details
      Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

      By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber
      The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry; United States
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      Heese, Jonas, Jung Koo Kang, and James Weber. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Case 123-042, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases

      By: Kate S. Boxer, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we...  View Details
      Keywords: Predictive Models; Bias; AI and Machine Learning
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      Boxer, Kate S., Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models

      By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider...  View Details
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      Ravishankar, Pavan, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, no. 8 (2023): 9562–9569. (Presented at the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2/7/23-2/14/23) in Washington, DC.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Random Distribution Shift in Refugee Placement: Strategies for Building Robust Models

      By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
      Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S. and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine learning models that can...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Geographic Location; Netherlands
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      Bansak, Kirk, Elisabeth Paulson, and Dominik Rothenhäusler. "Random Distribution Shift in Refugee Placement: Strategies for Building Robust Models." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

      By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision...  View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making
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      McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
      • May 2023
      • Case

      Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald’s in Latin America

      By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      This case describes the decarbonization strategy of Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, operating in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean—and how the company measured its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Environmental Accounting; Agribusiness; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Food; Growth Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Latin America; North and Central America; South America
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      Serafeim, George, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald’s in Latin America." Harvard Business School Case 623-017, May 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Conduit Incentives: Eliciting Cooperation from Workers Outside of Managers' Control

      By: Susanna Gallani
      Can managers use monetary incentives to elicit cooperation from workers they cannot reward for their efforts? I study “conduit incentives,” an innovative incentive design, whereby managers influence bonus-ineligible workers’ effort by offering bonus-eligible employees...  View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Behavior Modification; Peer Monitoring; Persistence Of Performance Improvements; Crowding Out; Implicit Incentives; Compensation; Healthcare; Social Pressure; Image Motivation; Incentives; Motivation; Performance; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Compensation and Benefits; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Organizational Culture; Health Industry; California
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      Gallani, Susanna. "Conduit Incentives: Eliciting Cooperation from Workers Outside of Managers' Control." Accounting Review 93, no. 3 (2023): 1–28.
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