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    • All HBS Web  (513)
      • Faculty Publications  (139)

      Inflation and Deflation Remove Inflation and Deflation →

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      • May 2022
      • Case

      Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?" Harvard Business School Case 222-084, May 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into...  View Details
      Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon." Harvard Business School Case 222-078, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The Emerging Degree Reset: How the Shift to Skills-Based Hiring Holds the Keys to Growing the U.S. Workforce at a Time of Talent Shortage

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Christina Langer, Julia Nitschke, Layla O'Kane, Matthew Sigelman and Bledi Taska
      Employers are resetting degree requirements in a wide range of roles, dropping the requirement for a bachelor’s degree in many middle-skill and even some higher-skill roles. This reverses a trend toward degree inflation in job postings going back to the Great...  View Details
      Keywords: Skills; Workforce; Talent; Human Resource Management; Selection and Staffing; Competency and Skills; Talent and Talent Management; Human Resources
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Christina Langer, Julia Nitschke, Layla O'Kane, Matthew Sigelman, and Bledi Taska. "The Emerging Degree Reset: How the Shift to Skills-Based Hiring Holds the Keys to Growing the U.S. Workforce at a Time of Talent Shortage." White Paper, Burning Glass Institute, February 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated

      By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
      The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main...  View Details
      Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing
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      Fried, Jesse M., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-036, November 2021.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
      We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020–2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in shortages in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over...  View Details
      Keywords: Prices; Stockouts; Inventories; Supply Disruptions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Supply Chain; Disruption; Health Pandemics; Consumer Products Industry; United States; China; Canada; France; Germany; Japan; Spain
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29209, September 2021.
      • June 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

      By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
      This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation
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      Viceira, Luis M., Emily R. McComb, and Dean Xu. "Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 221-101, June 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • May 2021
      • Case

      Colombia: An Economic Premium to Peace?

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor
      Colombia, once the fastest growing country in Latin America, continues to struggle with productivity. Both labor productivity and total factor productivity have been low for the past decade, despite economic growth of 4.7% annually. Many factors contribute, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Productivity; Productivity Growth; Conflict; Labor Force Participation; Labor Market; Competitiveness; Dutch Disease; Security; Peace; Informality; Labor Laws; Total Factor Productivity; Labor Productivity; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economics; Development Economics; Economic Growth; Economy; Macroeconomics; Conflict Management; Competitive Advantage; Infrastructure; Negotiation; Inflation and Deflation; Non-Renewable Energy; National Security; Government Administration; Latin America; Central America; Colombia; South America
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      Vietor, Richard H.K. "Colombia: An Economic Premium to Peace?" Harvard Business School Case 721-053, May 2021.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Diego Aparicio
      We study the impact of targeted price controls for supermarket products in Argentina from 2007 to 2015. Using web scraping, we collected daily prices for controlled and non-controlled goods and measured the differential effects on inflation, product availability, and...  View Details
      Keywords: Prices; Controls; Price Dispersion; Economics; Price; Cost Management; Goods and Commodities; Retail Industry; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Diego Aparicio. "Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products." Review of Economics and Statistics 103, no. 1 (March 2021): 60–71.
      • October 2020 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      Automercados Plaza's: Surviving Venezuela's Hyperinflation

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Mariana Cal and Carla Larangeira
      Under the rule of presidents Hugo Chávez and Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela experienced one of the worst economic and political meltdowns in modern history, culminating with a massive hyperinflation. Remarkably, during this dramatic times Automercados Plaza's had grown to...  View Details
      Keywords: Hyperinflation; Populism; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Management; Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Business and Government Relations; Retail Industry; South America; Venezuela
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Mariana Cal, and Carla Larangeira. "Automercados Plaza's: Surviving Venezuela's Hyperinflation." Harvard Business School Case 721-014, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in...  View Details
      Keywords: Reserves; Exchange Rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
      • August 2020
      • Supplement

      Luckin Coffee (B): Revelations of Fraud

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Karen Elterman
      This case describes revelations of fraud at Luckin Coffee, beginning with an anonymous report in January 2020 and continuing with the company’s admission in April 2020 that it had inflated its revenues by 2.2 billion RMB ($310 million), almost half its reported...  View Details
      Keywords: Fraud; Corporate Misconduct; Business Earnings; Financial Statements; Financial Condition; Stocks; Financial Management; Profit; Revenue; Price; Food; Lawfulness; Crime and Corruption; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Asia; China
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Karen Elterman. "Luckin Coffee (B): Revelations of Fraud." Harvard Business School Supplement 721-371, August 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

      By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,...  View Details
      Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
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      Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
      • June 2020 (Revised October 2020)
      • Case

      Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'

      By: Jonas Heese and Cristo Liautaud
      In May 2020, an analyst was assessing eHealth’s performance. eHealth was an online / tele-sales broker of health insurance products. The stock had recently hit all-time highs, closing at a peak of $146 on March 4, 2020. But now, May 4, 2020, eHealth traded at $103. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Health; Insurance; Online Technology; Insurance Industry
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      Heese, Jonas, and Cristo Liautaud. "Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'." Harvard Business School Case 120-114, June 2020. (Revised October 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      The Covid Pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I update the official CPI weights and re-calculate inflation...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Health Pandemics; Consumer Behavior; Spending; Inflation and Deflation; Global Range
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27352, June 2020. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-124, May 2020.)
      • Working Paper

      Rebates in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Evidence from Medicines Sold in Retail Pharmacies in the U.S.

      By: Pragya Kakani, Michael Chernew and Amitabh Chandra
      Rising list prices are often used to illustrate the burden of prescription drug spending, but payers routinely negotiate rebates from manufacturers that generate differences between list and net prices. List prices are easily available and affect patient cost-sharing,...  View Details
      Keywords: Pharmaceuticals; Rebates; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Analysis; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Kakani, Pragya, Michael Chernew, and Amitabh Chandra. "Rebates in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Evidence from Medicines Sold in Retail Pharmacies in the U.S." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26846, March 2020.
      • February 2020 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro
      For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control...  View Details
      Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Climate Change; Taxation; Competition; Financial Condition; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Environmental Sustainability; Australia
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Laura Alfaro. "Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China." Harvard Business School Case 720-028, February 2020. (Revised August 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering

      By: Ishita Sen and Varun Sharma
      Exploiting position-level heterogeneity in regulatory incentives to misreport and novel data on regulators, we document that U.S. life insurers inflate the values of corporate bonds using internal models. We estimate an additional $9-$18 billion decline in regulatory...  View Details
      Keywords: Life Insurers; Capital Regulation; Internal Models; Corporate Bonds; Regulatory Supervision; Concentrated Ownership; Bonds; Capital; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Insurance; Investment Portfolio
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      Sen, Ishita, and Varun Sharma. "Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering." Working Paper, June 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling...  View Details
      Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; China
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Case 320-039, November 2019.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
      We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Inflation and Deflation; United States; China
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. "Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26396, October 2019. (Revised June 2020. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-041, October 2019)
      • September 2019
      • Case

      Accounting Fraud at Tesco Stores (A)

      By: Jonas Heese, Suraj Srinivasan and Julia Kelley
      This case describes the accounting fraud at Tesco Stores Limited (TSL), which was discovered by a senior accountant in TSL’s finance department. The accountant was concerned about TSL’s handling of commercial income, which, according to the accountant, overstated...  View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Crime and Corruption; Organizational Culture; Corporate Accountability
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      Heese, Jonas, Suraj Srinivasan, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting Fraud at Tesco Stores (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-032, September 2019.
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