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- Faculty Publications (213)
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- All HBS Web (1,289)
- Faculty Publications (213)
- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue...
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- 09 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
- Article
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Financial Markets;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Valuation;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Volatility;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Behavioral Finance
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
- October 2000
- Article
The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has...
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Keywords:
Equity;
Borrowing and Debt;
Stocks;
Markets;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Accounting Industry;
United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 55, no. 5 (October 2000): 2219–57.
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important...
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Keywords:
Legislator Incentives;
Voting;
Return Predictability;
Lobbying;
Motivation and Incentives;
Government Legislation;
Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- 1987
- Working Paper
Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
By: K. A. Froot
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over...
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- 2003
- Article
Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns
By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This...
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Clement, Michael B., Richard Frankel, and Jeffrey Miller. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns." Journal of Accounting Research 41, no. 4 (2003): 653–679.
- May 2011
- Article
Institutional Stock Trading on Loan Market Information
By: Victoria Ivashina and Zheng Sun
Over the past decade, one of the most important developments in the corporate loan market has been the increasing participation of institutional investors in lending syndicates. As lenders, institutional investors routinely receive private information about borrowers....
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Ivashina, Victoria, and Zheng Sun. "Institutional Stock Trading on Loan Market Information ." Journal of Financial Economics 100, no. 2 (May 2011): 284–303.
- February 2018 (Revised October 2019)
- Case
Steinhoff International and the Stock Exchange
By: Siko Sikochi and Austin Lim
Nicky Newton-King, the Chief Executive Officer of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), was put in a difficult position. A scandal had broken out at Steinhoff, a JSE-listed company, under her watch and there were calls to suspend listing of the company securities from...
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Keywords:
Accounting;
Financial Reporting;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Financial Markets;
Corporate Governance;
Retail Industry;
Manufacturing Industry;
Distribution Industry;
Africa;
South Africa
Sikochi, Siko, and Austin Lim. "Steinhoff International and the Stock Exchange." Harvard Business School Case 118-066, February 2018. (Revised October 2019.)
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking...
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- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...
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Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- April 2023
- Article
The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation
By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between...
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Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
- 20 Mar 2013
- News
ETF Beating Market With Gains Less Price Swings: Riskless Return
- March 1995
- Article
Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market
By: C. Engel, J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot and T. Rodrigues
Keywords:
Risk Aversion;
Risk;
International Investing;
CAPM;
Capital Asset Pricing;
International Finance;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Asset Pricing;
Financial Markets;
Foreign Direct Investment;
Behavioral Finance;
United States
Engel, C., J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot, and T. Rodrigues. "Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market." Journal of Empirical Finance 2 (March 1995). (Revised from NBER Working Paper Nos. 2890, March 1989 and 4292, March 1993, "Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," March 1993.)
- May 2013
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, George Serafeim, and Devin Shanthikumar. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Management Science 59, no. 5 (May 2013): 1062–1075.
- Article
The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts
We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts during the period mid-1997 and 2004. The buy-side firm's analysts issued less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger...
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Keywords:
Buy-side Analysts;
Sell-side Analysts;
Stock Recommendations;
Recommendation Optimism;
Recommendation Performance;
Investment Recommendations;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Financial Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Stocks;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, Georgios Serafeim, Devin Shanthikumar, and Gui Yang. "The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (March 20, 2012).
- September 2008
- Article
Does Innovation Cause Stock Market Runups? Evidence from the Great Crash
By: Tom Nicholas
This article examines the stock market's changing valuation of corporate patentable assets between 1910 and 1939. It shows that the value of knowledge capital increased significantly during the 1920s compared to the 1910s as investors responded to the quality of...
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Keywords:
History;
Technological Innovation;
Patents;
Stocks;
Valuation;
Financial Crisis;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Nicholas, Tom. "Does Innovation Cause Stock Market Runups? Evidence from the Great Crash." American Economic Review 98, no. 4 (September 2008): 1370–1396.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Long-run Returns to Impact Investing in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
By: Shawn Cole, Martin Melecky, Florian Mölders and Tristan Reed
There is growing interest in impact investing, the idea of deploying capital to obtain both financial and social or environmental returns. Examination of every equity investment made by the International Finance Corporation, one of the largest and longest-operating...
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Keywords:
Impact Investing;
Investment;
Emerging Markets;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Investment Return
Cole, Shawn, Martin Melecky, Florian Mölders, and Tristan Reed. "Long-Run Returns to Impact Investing in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27870, September 2020. (Revised June 2021. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-138, June 2021)