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- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions Investments
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
An increasing number of companies are providing products and services that help reduce carbon emissions in the economy. We develop a methodology to identify those companies and create a sample of publicly listed climate solutions companies allowing us to study their...
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Keywords:
Decarbonization;
Climate Finance;
Climate Impact;
Climate Risk;
Environment;
Sustainability;
Carbon Emissions;
Electric Vehicles;
Energy;
Renewables;
Climate Change;
Investment;
Environmental Sustainability;
Renewable Energy;
Transportation Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Energy Industry;
Industrial Products Industry;
China;
United States;
Asia;
Europe
- January 2022
- Background Note
Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left
By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP...
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Keywords:
Market Reform;
Gdp;
Government Administration;
Government and Politics;
Private Sector;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Economy;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Entrepreneurship;
Business and Government Relations;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Social Issues;
Society;
Economic Growth;
China
- January 2022
- Article
Investing Outside the Box: Evidence from Alternative Vehicles in Private Equity
By: Josh Lerner, Jason Mao, Antoinette Schoar and Nan R. Zhang
This paper uses previously unexplored custodial data to examine the use of alternative investment vehicles in private equity (PE) over four decades. We document a steep increase in the capital directed to alternative vehicles, with these vehicles approaching a 40%...
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- January 2022
- Article
Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting
By: Erik Stafford
The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated
By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main...
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- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Evidence from Retirement Plans
We study empirical patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive data set of defined contribution plans. Using plan-level portfolio allocation data for the near universe of 401(k) plans over the period 2009–2019, we document substantial differences in...
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- November 2021 (Revised December 2021)
- Case
Praava Health: A New Model for Bangladesh
By: Michael Chu
Launched in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 2018, Praava Health (‘Praava’) delivered high-quality in-clinic primary and specialist care, backed by its own high quality diagnostic laboratories, imaging and pharmacy. Praava was founder Sylvana Sinha’s response to what she saw as a...
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- November 2021
- Article
Venture Capitalists and COVID-19
By: Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan and Ilya A. Strebulaev
We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of...
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- Article
Decarbonization Factors
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington and Hui (Stacie) Wang
In the face of accelerating climate change, investors are making capital allocations seeking to decarbonize portfolios by reducing the carbon emissions of their holdings. To understand the performance of portfolio decarbonization strategies and investor behavior...
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- Article
Health Equity, Schooling Hesitancy, and the Social Determinants of Learning
By: Meira Levinson, Alan C. Geller, Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber
At least 62 million K-12 students in North America—disproportionately low-income children of color— have been physically out of school for over a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These children are at risk of significant academic, social, mental, and physical harm...
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- 2021
- Article
Decarbonizing Everything
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington and Hui (Stacie) Wang
We analyze how the use of different climate risk measures leads to different portfolio carbon outcomes and risk-adjusted returns. Our findings are synthesized in a rules-based investment framework, which selects a different type of climate metric across industries and...
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Keywords:
Climate Risk;
ESG;
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance;
ESG Disclosure;
ESG Disclosure Metrics;
ESG Ratings;
Investing;
Investing For Impact;
Investment Strategy;
Environment;
Decarbonization;
Climate Change;
Environmental Sustainability;
Environmental Management;
Environmental Accounting;
Investment;
Strategy;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment Return
- June 2021
- Case
Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment
By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu
This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and...
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- June 23, 2021
- Article
Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story
By: Eva Ascarza
When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While...
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Keywords:
Customer Retention;
Churn;
Targeting;
Market Research;
Marketing;
Investment Return;
Customers;
Retention;
Research
- 2021
- Working Paper
Studying the U.S.-Based Portfolio Companies of U.S. Impact Investors
By: M. Diane Burton, Gurveen Chadha, Shawn A. Cole, Abhishek Dev, Christina Jarymowycz, Leslie Jeng, Laura Kelley, Josh Lerner, Jaime R. Diaz Palacios, Yue (Cynthia) Xu and T. Robert Zochowski
Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the reliance on market-based solutions to social and environmental problems around the world (Barman 2016; Horvath and Powell 2020). The growth of impact investing is a vivid example of this trend and, although there have...
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- June 2021
- Article
Short-Termism, Shareholder Payouts, and Investment in the EU
By: Jesse M. Fried and Charles C.Y. Wang
Investor-driven "short-termism" is said to harm EU public firms' ability to invest for the long term, prompting calls for the EU to better insulate managers from shareholder pressure. But the evidence offered—rising levels of repurchases and dividends—is incomplete and...
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- July–August 2021
- Article
Why You Aren't Getting More from Your Marketing AI
By: Eva Ascarza, Michael Ross and Bruce G.S. Hardie
Fewer than 40% of companies that invest in AI see gains from it, usually because of one or more of these errors: (1) They don’t ask the right question, and end up directing AI to solve the wrong problem. (2) They don’t recognize the differences between the value of...
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- May 2021
- Teaching Plan
Gera Developments: Leadership at a Crossroads
By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko
Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 621-018. For decades, Gera Developments (Gera) was a boutique family-owned real estate development firm in Pune, India. But since 2000, managing director Rohit Gera had turned the company into a dynamic innovator in housing solutions for...
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Keywords:
Buildings and Facilities;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Construction;
Geographic Location;
Global Strategy;
Globalized Firms and Management;
Housing;
Leadership Style;
Management Succession;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Organizational Culture;
Family Ownership;
Family and Family Relationships;
Urban Development;
Customization and Personalization;
Real Estate Industry;
Maharashtra;
India;
San Francisco
- May 2021 (Revised September 2021)
- Case
CPE and SUS Environmental: You've Got to Know When to Hold 'Em (A)
By: Josh Lerner and Franko Jira
In July 2016, Di Yang and Grace Guo of the leading Chinese private equity group CPE faced a dilemma—a happy dilemma, but a challenge nonetheless. CPE’s investment in the waste-to-energy firm SUS Environment had proved to be exceedingly successful. This success had...
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