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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (372)
      • Faculty Publications  (71)

      Monetary Policy Transmission Remove Monetary Policy Transmission →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Article

      Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries

      By: Lara B. Aknin, Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans and Jamil Zaki
      To date, public health policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been evaluated on the basis of their ability to reduce transmission and minimise economic harm. We aimed to assess the association between COVID-19 policy restrictions and mental health...  View Details
      Keywords: Public Health; COVID-19; Mental Health; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Well-being
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      Aknin, Lara B., Bernardo Andretti, Rafael Goldszmidt, John F. Helliwell, Anna Petherick, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daisy Fancourt, Elkhonon Goldberg, Sarah P. Jones, Ozge Karadag, Elie Karam, Richard Layard, Shekhar Saxena, Emily Thornton, Ashley Whillans, and Jamil Zaki. "Policy Stringency and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from 15 Countries." Lancet Public Health 7, no. 5 (May 2022): e417–e426.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito
      Using credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Credit; Loan Types; Bank Lending Channel; Credit Registry; Banks and Banking; Credit; Financing and Loans
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Luc Laeven, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel." Journal of Monetary Economics 126 (March 2022): 171–187.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
      • November 2021 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...  View Details
      Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised February 2022.)
      • Article

      Health Equity, Schooling Hesitancy, and the Social Determinants of Learning

      By: Meira Levinson, Alan C. Geller, Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber
      At least 62 million K-12 students in North America—disproportionately low-income children of color— have been physically out of school for over a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These children are at risk of significant academic, social, mental, and physical harm...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Public Health; Air Quality; Social Determinants Of Health; Schooling Hesitancy; Vaccine Hesitancy; Racial Injustice; Inequity; Inequality; Health Pandemics; Education; Health Care and Treatment; Policy; Race; Equality and Inequality
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      Levinson, Meira, Alan C. Geller, Joseph G. Allen, and John D. Macomber. "Health Equity, Schooling Hesitancy, and the Social Determinants of Learning." Art. 100032. Lancet Regional Health – Americas 2 (October 2021).
      • August 2021
      • Article

      Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
      Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...  View Details
      Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Structuring Local Environments to Avoid Diversity: Anxiety Drives Whites' Geographical and Institutional Self-Segregation Preferences

      By: Eric Anicich, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Merrick Osborne and L. Taylor Phillips
      The current research explores how local racial diversity affects Whites’ efforts to structure their local communities to avoid incidental intergroup contact. In two experimental studies (N=509; Studies 1a-b), we consider Whites’ choices to structure a fictional,...  View Details
      Keywords: Segregration; Structural/institutional Racism; Organizational Exclusion; Diversity; Race; Organizations; Local Range; Prejudice and Bias
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      Anicich, Eric, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Merrick Osborne, and L. Taylor Phillips. "Structuring Local Environments to Avoid Diversity: Anxiety Drives Whites' Geographical and Institutional Self-Segregation Preferences." Art. 104117. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 95 (July 2021).
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Monetary Policy and Global Banking

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      When central banks adjust interest rates, the opportunity cost of lending in local currency changes, but—in absence of frictions—there is no spillover effect to lending in other currencies. However, when equity capital is limited, global banks must benchmark domestic...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Banks; Monetary Policy Transmission; Cross-border Lending; Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Global Range
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "Monetary Policy and Global Banking." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3055–3095.
      • June 2020
      • Article

      U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,...  View Details
      Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
      • May 2020
      • Article

      How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer
      We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; MBS; Quantitative Easing; LSAP; Refinancing; Deleveraging; HARP; GSE; Central Banking; Global Range; Financing and Loans; Credit; United States
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Christopher Palmer. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel." Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 3 (May 2020): 1498–1528.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Tannya Cai
      The HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker is an initiative by the Business, Government and the International Economy (BGIE) unit at Harvard Business School (HBS) to collect and standardize economic policies implemented as a response to the coronavirus pandemic around the...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Economics; Policy; Health Pandemics; Government and Politics; Global Range
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Tannya Cai. "HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-110, April 2020. (Available at www.globalpolicytracker.com.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Costly External Financing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

      By: Emily Williams
      I provide new evidence that large and small banks have different external financing costs, which generates cross sectional variation in a deposits market pricing power channel of monetary policy transmission. I do so by exploiting a natural experiment using anti-trust...  View Details
      Keywords: External Financing; Monetary Policy Transmission; Experiment; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates
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      Williams, Emily. "Costly External Financing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Working Paper, April 2020.
      • January 2020
      • Teaching Note

      Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the...  View Details
      Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Metals and Minerals; Production; Economy; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 320-054, January 2020.
      • April 2019 (Revised April 2020)
      • Case

      Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy

      By: Tom Nicholas, John Masko and Matthew G. Preble
      During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and his administration instituted several far-reaching economic policies that had both near- and long-term impacts on such aspects of the U.S. economy as monetary policy, inflation, the tax structure, and the role of...  View Details
      Keywords: Wealth and Poverty; Business and Government Relations; Leadership; Taxation; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Economy; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Equality and Inequality; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom, John Masko, and Matthew G. Preble. "Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy." Harvard Business School Case 819-007, April 2019. (Revised April 2020.)
      • June 2018
      • Article

      The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

      By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
      We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy...  View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Interest Rates; Policy; Bonds; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Jeremy C., and Adi Sunderam. "The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 1015–1060.
      • October 22, 2012
      • Article

      Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru and Vincent Yao
      Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50%) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35%). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Household Finance; Refinancing; Contract Rigidities; Debt Rigidity; MPC; Deleveraging; Personal Finance; Household; Policy; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Benjamin Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Rodney Ramcharan, Amit Seru, and Vincent Yao. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging." American Economic Review 107, no. 11 (November 2017): 3550–3588. (Note: this is a combined version of working papers Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging by M. Di Maggio, A. Kermani and R. Ramcharan previously Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review and Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy by B. Keys, T. Piskorski, A. Seru, and V. Yao previously Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy.)
      • September 2017
      • Article

      The Belief in a Favorable Future

      By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton
      People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior
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      Rogers, Todd, Don A. Moore, and Michael I. Norton. "The Belief in a Favorable Future." Psychological Science 28, no. 9 (September 2017): 1290–1301.
      • 2016
      • Article

      The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e., to finance risky assets using...  View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Policy; Risk Management; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2016): 335–397.
      • Article

      The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy

      By: Marco Di Maggio and Marcin Kacperczyk
      We study the impact of the zero lower bound interest rate policy on the industrial organization of the U.S. money fund industry. We find that in response to policies that maintain low interest rates, money funds change their product offerings by investing in riskier...  View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Money Market Funds; Reaching For Yield; Risk Taking; Fund Exit; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Investment Funds; Interest Rates
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      Di Maggio, Marco, and Marcin Kacperczyk. "The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy." Journal of Financial Economics 123, no. 1 (January 2017): 59–80.
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