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Show Results For
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All HBS Web
(69)
- News (11)
- Research (50)
- Events (4)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (21)
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- 2018
- Working Paper
Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence
By: Jennifer M. Logg, Uriel Haran and Don A. Moore
Are overconfident beliefs driven by the motivation to view oneself positively? We test the relationship between motivation and overconfidence using two distinct, but often conflated, measures: better-than-average (BTA) beliefs and overplacement. Our results suggest...
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Keywords:
Self-perception;
Overconfidence;
Motivation;
Better-Than-Average Effect;
Specifically;
Personal Characteristics;
Perception;
Motivation and Incentives;
Cognition and Thinking
Logg, Jennifer M., Uriel Haran, and Don A. Moore. "Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-099, April 2018.
- 2022
- Article
Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an...
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Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
- 01 Mar 2004
- News
Curb Your Overconfidence
bargaining weaknesses, and you’ll increase the odds of proposing an offer that is acceptable to the other side. Curb Your Overconfidence Overconfidence can make the best negotiators overestimate their...
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- May 2011
- Article
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...
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Keywords:
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Knowledge Acquisition;
Risk Management;
Prejudice and Bias
Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one...
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
- Research Summary
A Strategic Rationale for Having Overconfident Managers, 2004
We analyze whether it might be desirable for a firm to hire an overconfident manager for strategic reasons. We analyze a tournament type version of Bertrand competition and a linear demand Cournot model. In each case there is an R&D stage where firms can invest in cost...
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- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about...
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Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 27 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence
- 21 Apr 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Why Do Firms Use Non-Linear Incentive Schemes? Experimental Evidence on Sorting and Overconfidence
Keywords:
by Ian Larkin & Stephen Leider
- May 2022
- Article
Complex Disclosure
By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
We present evidence that unnecessarily complex disclosure can result from strategic incentives to shroud information. In our lab experiment, senders are required to report their private information truthfully, but can choose how complex to make their reports. We find...
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Keywords:
Disclosure;
Experiments;
Naiveté;
Overconfidence;
Corporate Disclosure;
Policy;
Information;
Complexity;
Strategy;
Consumer Behavior
Jin, Ginger Zhe, Michael Luca, and Daniel Martin. "Complex Disclosure." Management Science 68, no. 5 (May 2022): 3236–3261.
Managerial Structure and Performance-Induced Trading
The literature finds that investors increase portfolio turnover following high returns, explaining it by either overconfidence or skilled trading. This paper develops a theoretical model and shows empirically that team-managed funds trade less after good...
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- September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
- Exercise
Exercise on Estimation
By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident.
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Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
- 22 Mar 2011
- News
Is It a Dream Job If You're Gone in a Year?
- 23 Oct 2019
- Blog Post
How to Talk Gooder in Business and Life
skills—across all three buckets: verbal, nonverbal, and prosodic expression. What role does confidence play in “talking gooder”? Confidence is good, but overconfidence is bad and can make us bad listeners. Perhaps the more pertinent...
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- May 2012
- Article
Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence
By: Ian Larkin and Stephen Leider
We investigate how the convexity of a firm's incentives interacts with worker overconfidence to affect sorting decisions and performance. We demonstrate experimentally that overconfident employees are more likely to sort into a non-linear incentive scheme over a linear...
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Keywords:
Motivation and Incentives;
Performance;
Behavior;
Prejudice and Bias;
Decisions;
Employees;
Wages
Larkin, Ian, and Stephen Leider. "Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 4, no. 2 (May 2012).
- Awards
INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Publication Award
Winner of the 2019 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Publication Award for “Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts” (Management Science, April 2017) with Victor Richmond R. Jose and Kenneth Lichtendahl.
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- 26 May 2010
- News
The Greek Crisis and the Limits of Arbitrage
Overcoming Overconfidence: Teamwork and Self-Control
This paper analyzes interactions between agents who are overconfident regarding their own future self-control relative to others. The paper considers the problem of incentivizing several such agents, and compares two methods: assigning work individually to each...
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- Article
Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity...
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Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science 60, no. 2 (February 2014): 463–475.
- 11 Feb 2019
- HBS Seminar