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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (109)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S....
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Stock Returns;
Health Pandemics;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- Fall 2019
- Article
Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals
By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function....
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Productivity;
Pharmaceuticals;
Innovation and Invention;
Performance Productivity;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Myers, Kyle, and Mark Pauly. "Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals." RAND Journal of Economics 50, no. 3 (Fall 2019): 591–614.
- March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
- Case
Growth Investing at Totem Point
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg
The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point...
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Srinivasan, Suraj, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Jonah Goldberg. "Growth Investing at Totem Point." Harvard Business School Case 119-091, March 2019. (Revised May 2019.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach
By: Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...
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Keywords:
Customer Management;
Targeting;
Deep Exponential Families;
Probabilistic Machine Learning;
Cold Start Problem;
Customer Relationship Management;
Customer Value and Value Chain;
Consumer Behavior;
Analytics and Data Science;
Mathematical Methods;
Retail Industry
Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020. Accepted at the Journal of Marketing Research.)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2017
- Working Paper
Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and...
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Kempf, Elisabeth, Alberto Manconi, and Oliver Spalt. "Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 2124896, May 2017.
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Discount Rates;
Holding Period Returns;
Fundamental Valuation;
Present Value;
Valuation;
Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- December 2014
- Article
Market Competition, Earnings Management, and Persistence in Accounting Profitability Around the World
We examine how cross-country differences in product, capital, and labor market competition, and earnings management affect mean reversion in accounting return on assets. Using a sample of 48,465 unique firms from 49 countries, we find that accounting returns mean...
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Keywords:
Corporate Performance;
Valuation;
Equity Valuation;
Persistence;
Competitive Advantage;
Institutions;
Earnings Management;
Labor Market;
Capital Markets;
Competition;
Profit;
Performance;
Supply and Industry;
Financial Statements;
Government and Politics;
Globalized Markets and Industries
Healy, Paul M., George Serafeim, Suraj Srinivasan, and Gwen Yu. "Market Competition, Earnings Management, and Persistence in Accounting Profitability Around the World." Review of Accounting Studies 19, no. 4 (December 2014): 1281–1308.
- 2014
- Article
Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs....
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Greenwood, Robin, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 663–713. (Also earlier version NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13806, February 2008.)
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important...
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Keywords:
Legislator Incentives;
Voting;
Return Predictability;
Lobbying;
Motivation and Incentives;
Government Legislation;
Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- Winter 2013
- Article
Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Financial Statement Comparability
By: Francois Brochet, Alan Jagolinzer and Edward J. Riedl
This study examines whether mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) leads to capital market benefits through enhanced financial statement comparability. UK domestic standards are considered very similar to IFRS (Bae et al., 2008),...
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Keywords:
IFRS;
Comparability;
Private Information;
Insider Trading;
Ethics;
Standards;
Financial Statements
Brochet, Francois, Alan Jagolinzer, and Edward J. Riedl. "Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Financial Statement Comparability." Contemporary Accounting Research 30, no. 4 (Winter 2013): 1373–1400.
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Cost of Capital;
Capital Markets;
Banks and Banking;
Banking Industry;
United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19018, May 2013.
- 2013
- Article
Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance
By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with...
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Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Return Predictability;
R&D;
Information;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
- February 2013
- Case
New Enterprise Associates
By: Felda Hardymon and Tom Nicholas
NEA was established in 1977 and it subsequently morphed into one of the largest venture capital firms in the world. Despite its size and significance, some other firms established during the same era such as Kleiner-Perkins and Sequoia (both were established in 1972),...
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Keywords:
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Venture Capital;
Organizational Structure;
Innovation and Invention;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Hardymon, Felda, and Tom Nicholas. "New Enterprise Associates." Harvard Business School Case 813-097, February 2013.
- June 2012
- Article
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms....
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Keywords:
Strategy;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Law Enforcement;
Opportunities;
Geographic Location;
Business Earnings
Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." Journal of Finance 67, no. 3 (June 2012): 1009–1043. (Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research.)
- Article
Agency Costs, Mispricing, and Ownership Structure
By: Sergey Chernenko, C. Fritz Foley and Robin Greenwood
Standard theories of corporate ownership assume that because markets are efficient, insiders ultimately bear all agency costs that they create and therefore have a strong incentive to minimize conflicts of interest with outside investors. We argue that if equity is...
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Keywords:
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Ownership;
Conflict of Interests;
Investment;
Valuation
Chernenko, Sergey, C. Fritz Foley, and Robin Greenwood. "Agency Costs, Mispricing, and Ownership Structure." Financial Management 41, no. 4 (Winter 2012): 885–914.