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- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...
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Keywords:
Overreaction;
Rational Expectations;
Macroeconomics;
Market Participation;
Social Psychology
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property...
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Keywords:
Currencies;
Exchange Rates;
International Macroeconomics;
Monetary Policy;
Currency Controls;
Fixed Exchange Rates;
Floating Exchange Rates;
Currency Bands;
Currency Zones;
Currency Areas;
Rational Expectations;
Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
- November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
- Case
Perspectives on the Great Depression
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
The case assembles texts giving perspectives on the Great Depression by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz and Ben Bernanke. This should allow for a discussion of the role of fiscal and monetary policies in reaching and...
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Keywords:
Great Depression;
Keynesian Multiplier;
Monetary Policy;
Zero Lower Bound Of Interest Rates;
Role Of Expectations In Macroeconomics;
Performance Expectations;
History;
Policy;
Interest Rates;
Macroeconomics
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Perspectives on the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 713-056, November 2012. (Revised April 2013.)
- December 1986
- Article
Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords:
Currencies;
Exchange Rates;
Asset Pricing;
International Macroeconomics;
Monetary Policy;
Currency Controls;
Fixed Exchange Rates;
Floating Exchange Rates;
Currency Bands;
Currency Zones;
Currency Areas;
Rational Expectations;
History;
Performance Expectations;
Economics;
United States
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
- Research Summary
Dynamics of Platform Competition: Exploring the Role of Installed Base, Platform Quality and Consumer Expectations
Researchers debate the role of installed base, platform quality and consumer expectations in driving the success of platforms. We analyze these three factors in a dynamic model where a new entrant with superior quality competes with an incumbent platform, and... View Details
- 25 Jan 2010
- Research & Ideas
A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy
higher in the future, then the price is going to start rising today. Although expectations of all sorts are important, one particular set of...
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Keywords:
by Sean Silverthorne
- Forthcoming
- Chapter
Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela
By: Rafael Di Tella, Javier Donna and Robert MacCulloch
Book Abstract: At the beginning of the twentieth century Venezuela had one of the poorest economies in Latin America, but by 1970 it had become the richest country in the region and one of the twenty richest countries in the world, ahead of countries such as Greece,...
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Keywords:
Macroeconomics;
Volatility;
Crime and Corruption;
Values and Beliefs;
Non-Renewable Energy;
Energy Industry;
Venezuela
Di Tella, Rafael, Javier Donna, and Robert MacCulloch. "Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela." Chap. 14 in Venezuela Before Chávez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse, edited by Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco Rodriguez. Penn State University Press, 2014.
- 2007
- Working Paper
Dynamics of Platform Competition: Exploring the Role of Installed Base, Platform Quality and Consumer Expectations
By: Feng Zhu and Marco Iansiti
This paper seeks to answer three questions. First, which drives the success of a platform, installed base, platform quality or consumer expectations? Second, when does a monopoly emerge in a platform-based market? Finally, when is a platform-based market socially...
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Keywords:
Price;
Network Effects;
Digital Platforms;
Monopoly;
Quality;
Competitive Advantage;
Digital Platforms
Zhu, Feng, and Marco Iansiti. "Dynamics of Platform Competition: Exploring the Role of Installed Base, Platform Quality and Consumer Expectations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-031, November 2007.
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Retirement Planning;
Defined Contribution Retirement Plan;
401 (K);
Finance;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment;
Retirement;
Behavioral Finance;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revised April 2024. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
- September 2023
- Article
The Changing Role of Managers
By: Letian Zhang
This study argues that the increase in middle management in recent decades was
accompanied by a major shift in managerial roles. Increased task complexity and a
new management philosophy have reduced the need for direct supervision but generated
a much greater...
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Zhang, Letian. "The Changing Role of Managers." American Journal of Sociology 129, no. 2 (September 2023): 439–484.
- TeachingInterests
The Role of Government in Market Economies (RoGME)
RoGME is about one question: What is the proper role of government in market economies? We study the role of government as it plays out in the real world, using case studies to examine policies of current interest and importance.... View Details
- Research Summary
The Cross Section of Expected Firm (Not Equity) Returns
This paper provides the first comprehensive study of expected firm (unlevered equity) returns. After accounting for the debt component of the firm return, I find that many of the cross sectional determinants of expected equity returns, such as the book-to-market...
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- August 2016
- Article
The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences
By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the...
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Keywords:
Perceived Similarity;
Prediction Error;
Preference Prediction;
Self-other Difference;
Social Inference;
Cognition and Thinking;
Perception;
Forecasting and Prediction
Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
- November 29, 2011
- Article
The Role of The Board in Creating a Sustainable Strategy
By: Robert G. Eccles, Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim
While conceptually elegant, the belief that a corporation's role is to maximize value for shareholders is under increasing challenge as society's expectations for companies change. An equally elegant new concept that takes account of these dual pressures has yet to...
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Keywords:
Value Creation;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Corporate Strategy;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Performance Expectations;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Management Practices and Processes;
Decisions;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Cost vs Benefits;
Information
Eccles, Robert G., Ioannis Ioannou, and George Serafeim. "The Role of The Board in Creating a Sustainable Strategy." TrustLaw (November 29, 2011).
- 01 Mar 2024
- News
In My Humble Opinion: Role Model
geeky nerds. To counter those stereotypes, Qarnain made a point of gathering more diverse résumés for roles that didn’t explicitly require a white actor, hoping to gradually shift View Details
- 23 Nov 2009
- Research & Ideas
Management’s Role in Reforming Health Care
venues of care and caregivers, and tools and systems that help and allow patients to be more effectively involved in their own care. To date, our prevailing model of innovation...
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- February 2007 (Revised March 2007)
- Case
Navigating Turbulent Waters: Glitnir Bank's Communication Challenge during a Macroeconomic Crisis
By: Michael D. Kimbrough, Gregory S. Miller, Vincent Marie Dessain and Ane Damgaard Jensen
Glitnir Bank is an Icelandic company following an aggressive growth strategy that relies heavily on foreign debt. Access to such debt is suddenly curtailed when there is a downturn in market sentiment regarding the Icelandic economy as a whole. Students will reflect on...
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Keywords:
International Finance;
Banks and Banking;
Macroeconomics;
Communication Strategy;
Banking Industry;
Iceland
Kimbrough, Michael D., Gregory S. Miller, Vincent Marie Dessain, and Ane Damgaard Jensen. "Navigating Turbulent Waters: Glitnir Bank's Communication Challenge during a Macroeconomic Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 107-050, February 2007. (Revised March 2007.)
- Article
Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations
By: Jerry R. Green and Seppo Honkapohja
This paper considers a macroeconomic model with rational expectations in which prices are incompletely flexible. Markets therefore fail to clear. In such a model monetary policy is not neutral. The variance of real and nominal quantities and interest rates is sensitive...
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Green, Jerry R., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations." European Economic Review 20, nos. 1-3 (January 1983): 123–141.
- Web
The Role of Government in Market Economies - Course Catalog
HBS Course Catalog The Role of Government in Market Economies Course Number 1195 Professor Matthew Weinzierl Spring; Q4; 1.5 credits13 SessionsPaper Course Overview and...
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- 30 Jan 2019
- Blog Post
The Life and Role of a CEO
where we focus on one single decision point, we discussed the CEO as a role. In other words, instead of looking at a snapshot of their life, we took a broader view View Details