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- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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- October 2023
- Teaching Note
Timnit Gebru: 'SILENCED No More' on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 422-085. Dr. Timnit Gebru—a leading artificial intelligence (AI) computer scientist and co-lead of Google’s Ethical AI team—was messaging with one of her colleagues when she saw the words: “Did you resign?? Megan sent an email saying that...
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- October 2023
- Article
Laboratory Safety and Research Productivity
By: Alberto Galasso, Hong Luo and Brooklynn Zhu
Are laboratory safety practices a tax on scientific productivity? We examine this question by exploiting the substantial increase in safety regulations at the University of California following the shocking accidental death of a research assistant in 2008....
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- October 2023
- Article
Stock Market Stimulus
By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler
We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of...
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- September 2023
- Case
The Rise and Fall of FTX
In November 2022, Sam Bankman-Fried's multi-billion-dollar crypto exchange, FTX, collapsed, wiping out investors and throwing the crypto industry into disarray. As FTX's founder and CEO, Bankman-Fried developed a reputation for his unerring business sense and...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Large Shocks Travel Fast
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We set up a parsimonious New...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose to expand the welfare state. I argue that a key scope condition of this causal relationship is expectations about...
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- August 2023 (Revised October 2023)
- Case
Beyond the Barricades: Chile 2023
Chile, often considered among Latin America´s greatest economic success stories, suffered a shocking wave of protests in October 2019, as its citizens demanded reforms across healthcare and education systems, and protested inequality and rising costs of living. As...
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- June 2023
- Article
National Customer Orientation: An Empirical Test across 112 Countries
By: Ofer Mintz, Imran S. Currim and Rohit Deshpandé
Customer orientation is a central tenet of marketing. However, less is known about how customer orientation varies across countries and time. Mintz, Currim, and Deshpandé (Eur. J. Mark., 56: 1014–1041, 2022) propose a country-level construct, national customer...
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- May 2023
- Article
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the...
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- April 21, 2023
- Article
When Scenario Planning Fails
By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen
How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
State Employment as a Strategy of Autocratic Control in China
By: Jaya Y. Wen
This paper presents evidence that autocrats use state-owned firms to strategically pacify social unrest via employment provision, a role that may contribute to their favorable treatment and persistence across settings. I use variation in a regional conflict between...
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- September 2022
- Article
A Spanner in the Works: Category-Spanning Entrants and Audience Valuation of Incumbents
By: Rory M. McDonald and Ryan T. Allen
Previous work has examined how audiences evaluate category-spanning organizations, but little is known about how their entrance affects evaluations of other, proximate organizations. We posit that the emergence of category-spanning entrants signals the advent of an...
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- September 2022
- Article
Find and Replace: R&D Investment Following the Erosion of Existing Products
By: Joshua L. Krieger, Xuelin Li and Richard T. Thakor
How do innovative firms react when existing products experience negative shocks? We explore this question with detailed project-level data from drug development firms. Using FDA Public Health Advisories as idiosyncratic negative shocks to approved drugs, we first...
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- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Hidden Alpha
By: Lauren Cohen, Manuel Amman, Alexander Cochardt and Stephan Heller
Using the setting of financial agents, we explore the importance of hidden connections relative
to all other network connections. We find that hidden connections are those associated with
the largest and most significant abnormal returns accruing to fund managers—on...
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- July 2022
- Article
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level...
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Keywords:
Employment Risk;
Consumption;
Employment;
Risk and Uncertainty;
System Shocks;
Insurance;
Household;
Spending
- May 2022
- Case
Timnit Gebru: 'SILENCED No More' on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models
By: Tsedal Neeley and Stefani Ruper
Dr. Timnit Gebru—a leading artificial intelligence (AI) computer scientist and co-lead of Google’s Ethical AI team—was messaging with one of her colleagues when she saw the words: “Did you resign?? Megan sent an email saying that she accepted your resignation.” Heart...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Stock Market Stimulus
By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler
We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of...
View Details
Keywords:
Stock Market;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Fiscal Stimulus;
Stimulus Payments;
Impact;
Stocks;
System Shocks;
Price;
Spending;
United States;
Hong Kong;
China
- 2022
- Chapter
Crises and International Business
By: Geoffrey Jones
This chapter uses the intellectual journey of the author to suggest that crises have been the norm rather than the exception in the history of international business. Over the last 100 years world wars, regional conflicts, the Great Depression, and decolonization are...
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