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- Faculty Publications (150)
- 2017
- Working Paper
Rainy Day Stocks
By: Niels Gormsen and Robin Greenwood
We study the good- and bad-times performance of equity portfolios formed on characteristics. Many characteristics associated with good performance during bad times – value, profitability, small size, safety, and total volatility – also perform well during good times....
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Gormsen, Niels, and Robin Greenwood. "Rainy Day Stocks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-066, January 2017.
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...
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Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- November 2016
- Article
Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality
By: Mozaffar Khan, George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon
Using newly available materiality classifications of sustainability topics, we develop a novel dataset by hand-mapping sustainability investments classified as material for each industry into firm-specific sustainability ratings. This allows us to present new evidence...
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Keywords:
Sustainability;
Investments;
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Accounting;
Corporate Reporting;
Regulation;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Integrated Corporate Reporting;
Investment;
Corporate Governance
Khan, Mozaffar, George Serafeim, and Aaron Yoon. "Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality." Accounting Review 91, no. 6 (November 2016).
- October 2016 (Revised October 2017)
- Case
Misaki Capital and Sangetsu Corporation
By: Ian Gow, Charles C.Y. Wang, Naoko Jinjo and Nobuo Sato
Japan’s corporate culture has traditionally prioritized the interests of stakeholders such as customers, employees, and suppliers over those of shareholders. After a decades-long economic slump, Japan’s government has revitalized efforts to improve corporate governance...
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Keywords:
Activist Investing;
Constructivist Investing;
Japan;
Valuation;
Stock Screens;
Return On Equity;
Investment;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Corporate Governance;
Financial Strategy;
Business and Shareholder Relations;
Japan
Gow, Ian, Charles C.Y. Wang, Naoko Jinjo, and Nobuo Sato. "Misaki Capital and Sangetsu Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 117-007, October 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
- September 2016
- Case
Partners Group: Ain't No Mountain High Enough
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Ricardo Andrade
Partners Group (PG), a Swiss-based PE manager, initiated a series of strategic shifts and evolved from a predominately fund-of-funds manager into a large, multi-asset class PE firm focused on direct investments. PG was the first PE firm to go public in 2006. A number...
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Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Ricardo Andrade. "Partners Group: Ain't No Mountain High Enough." Harvard Business School Case 217-035, September 2016.
- 2016
- Working Paper
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking...
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Keywords:
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Business Earnings;
Banks and Banking;
Risk and Uncertainty
Scharfstein, David S., and Antonio Falato. "The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22689, September 2016.
- July 2016
- Article
Under New Management: Equity Issues and the Attribution of Past Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Yuhai Xuan
There is a strong link between measures of stock market performance, such as changes in Tobin's Q or past stock returns, and equity issues. Typically, this performance is thought to be a characteristic of the firm, not the CEO who happens to run the firm. In contrast...
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Baker, Malcolm, and Yuhai Xuan. "Under New Management: Equity Issues and the Attribution of Past Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 1 (July 2016): 66–78.
- Spring 2016
- Article
Risk Neglect in Equity Markets
By: Malcolm Baker
The link between measures of risk and return within the equity market has been very weak over the past 47 years: in the United States, returns on high-risk stocks have cumulatively fallen short of the returns on low-risk stocks, during a period when the equity market...
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Baker, Malcolm. "Risk Neglect in Equity Markets." Journal of Portfolio Management 42, no. 3 (Spring 2016): 12–25.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting
By: Erik Stafford
Private equity funds tend to select relatively small firms with low EBITDA multiples. Publicly traded equities with these characteristics have high risk-adjusted returns after controlling for common factors typically associated with value stocks. Hold-to-maturity...
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Keywords:
Value Investing;
Endowments;
Investment Management;
Asset Pricing;
Private Equity;
Investment;
Management;
United States
Stafford, Erik. "Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-081, January 2016.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions
By: Robert C. Merton and Robert T. Thakor
Financial institutions have both investors and customers. Investors, such as those who invest in stocks and bonds or private/public-sector guarantors of institutions, expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return in exchange for the financing and risk-bearing that they...
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Keywords:
Financial Institutions
Merton, Robert C., and Robert T. Thakor. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21258, June 2015.
- January 2015
- Article
X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which...
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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.
- August 2014 (Revised March 2016)
- Case
Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A)
By: Benjamin C. Esty, Stuart C. Gilson and Aldo Sesia
Harriett Green, the newly appointed CEO of Thomas Cook Group, faces a daunting set of business and financial challenges at the 171-year old UK travel services company. The company has lost almost £600 million in the last three quarters; has seen its stock price fall...
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Keywords:
Turnaround;
Corporate Restructuring;
Change Leadership;
Female Ceo;
Change Management;
Communication Strategy;
Borrowing and Debt;
Cash Flow;
Cost Management;
Financial Liquidity;
Financial Management;
Executive Compensation;
Leading Change;
Crisis Management;
Value Creation;
Travel Industry;
United Kingdom
Esty, Benjamin C., Stuart C. Gilson, and Aldo Sesia. "Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A)." Harvard Business School Case 215-008, August 2014. (Revised March 2016.)
- July 2014
- Article
Winners in the Spotlight: Media Coverage of Fund Holdings as a Driver of Flows
By: David H. Solomon, Eugene F. Soltes and Denis Sosyura
We show that media coverage of mutual fund holdings affects how investors allocate money across funds. Controlling for fund performance, fund holdings with high past returns attract extra flows only if these stocks were recently featured in major newspapers. In...
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Solomon, David H., Eugene F. Soltes, and Denis Sosyura. "Winners in the Spotlight: Media Coverage of Fund Holdings as a Driver of Flows." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 1 (July 2014): 53–72.
- May 2014
- Article
Digital Dark Matter and the Economic Contribution of Apache
By: Shane Greenstein and Frank Nagle
Researchers have long hypothesized that research outputs from government, university, and private company R&D contribute to economic growth, but these contributions may be difficult to measure when they take a non-pecuniary form. The growth of networking devices and...
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Keywords:
Open Source;
Apache;
Economic Measurement;
Digital Economics;
Measurement and Metrics;
Open Source Distribution;
Internet and the Web;
Information Technology;
Applications and Software;
Economic Growth;
Research and Development;
Web Services Industry;
Information Technology Industry;
United States
Greenstein, Shane, and Frank Nagle. "Digital Dark Matter and the Economic Contribution of Apache." Research Policy 43, no. 4 (May 2014): 623–631. (Lead Article.)
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- April 2014
- Article
Golden Parachutes and the Wealth of Shareholders
By: Lucian A. Bebchuk, Alma Cohen and Charles C.Y. Wang
Golden parachutes (GPs) have attracted substantial attention from investors and public officials for more than two decades. We find that GPs are associated with higher expected acquisition premiums and that this association is at least partly due to the effect of GPs...
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Keywords:
Golden Parachute;
Acquisitions;
Takeovers;
Acquisition Takeover;
Acquisition Likelihood;
Acquisition Premiums;
Agency Costs;
Managerial Slack;
Dodd-Frank;
Executive Compensation;
Acquisition;
Corporate Governance;
Business and Shareholder Relations
Bebchuk, Lucian A., Alma Cohen, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Golden Parachutes and the Wealth of Shareholders." Journal of Corporate Finance 25 (April 2014): 140–154.
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important...
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Keywords:
Legislator Incentives;
Voting;
Return Predictability;
Lobbying;
Motivation and Incentives;
Government Legislation;
Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- November 2013
- Supplement
Arch Wireless, Inc. (B): Food for Vultures
By: Stuart C. Gilson
In 2002, a hedge fund investor acquires the distressed bank debt of a bankrupt wireless paging company and converts his holding into common stock of the reorganized entity. Determining his likely return from this investment is challenging, given that the entire...
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- 2013
- Working Paper
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Cost of Capital;
Capital Markets;
Banks and Banking;
Banking Industry;
United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19018, May 2013.