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Publications

Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (545)
      • Faculty Publications  (57)

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
      We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment

      By: Meg Rithmire
      How do state-business relations interact with outward investment in authoritarian regimes? This paper examines this question in the context of China’s rapid transformation into a major capital exporter. While most political economy scholarship focuses on firms’...  View Details
      Keywords: Outward Investment; Capital Controls; Corruption; Foreign Direct Investment; Political Economy; State-owned Enterprises; Investment; Global Range; Capital; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics; China
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      Rithmire, Meg. "Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment." Comparative Politics 54, no. 3 (April 2022): 477–499.
      • Article

      Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

      An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”...  View Details

      Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
      • February 2022
      • Case

      CityScore: Big Data Comes to Boston

      By: Boris Groysberg and Sarah L. Abbott
      In 2016, Martin “Marty” Walsh, the Mayor of Boston, introduced CityScore, a data dashboard that measured the city’s progress across a range of metrics. The dashboard was updated daily and publicly available. The mayor frequently discussed the CityScore targets in...  View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Government Administration; Leadership; Transformation; City; Measurement and Metrics; Public Administration Industry; Boston; United States
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      Groysberg, Boris, and Sarah L. Abbott. "CityScore: Big Data Comes to Boston." Harvard Business School Case 422-050, February 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Dynamic Pricing Algorithms, Consumer Harm, and Regulatory Response

      By: Alexander J. MacKay and Samuel Weinstein
      Pricing algorithms are rapidly transforming markets, from ride-sharing apps, to air travel, to online retail. Regulators and scholars have watched this development with a wary eye. Their focus so far has been on the potential for pricing algorithms to facilitate...  View Details
      Keywords: Competition Policy; Regulation; Algorithmic Pricing; Dynamic Pricing; Law And Economics; Law And Regulation; Consumer Protection; Competition; Policy; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economics
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      MacKay, Alexander J., and Samuel Weinstein. "Dynamic Pricing Algorithms, Consumer Harm, and Regulatory Response." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-050, January 2022. (Direct download.)
      • Article

      Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley Whillans, Jonathan Zinman and Angela L. Duckworth
      Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens’ decisions and outcomes. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time...  View Details
      Keywords: Policy Making; Behavioral Science; Behavior; Change; Decision Making; Policy
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley Whillans, Jonathan Zinman, and Angela L. Duckworth. "Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science." Nature 600, no. 7889 (December 16, 2021): 478–483.
      • Article

      A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

      By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
      We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public...  View Details
      Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna, and Tianshu Sun. "A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." MIS Quarterly 45, no. 4 (December 2021): 1807–1832.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Anatomy of a Hospital System Merger: The Patient Did Not Respond Well to Treatment

      By: Martin Gaynor, Adam Sacarny, Raffaella Sadun, Chad Syverson and Shruthi Venkatesh
      There is an ongoing merger wave in the U.S. hospital industry, but it remains an open question how hospital mergers change, or fail to change, hospital behavior, performance, and outcomes. In this research, we open the “black box” of practices within hospitals in the...  View Details
      Keywords: Hospital Mergers; Health Care and Treatment; Mergers and Acquisitions; Performance Effectiveness; Outcome or Result; Analysis; United States
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      Gaynor, Martin, Adam Sacarny, Raffaella Sadun, Chad Syverson, and Shruthi Venkatesh. "The Anatomy of a Hospital System Merger: The Patient Did Not Respond Well to Treatment." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29449, November 2021.
      • Article

      Regulating Hospital Prices Based on Market Concentration Is Likely to Leave High-Price Hospitals Unaffected

      By: Maximilian J. Pany, Michael E. Chernew and Leemore S. Dafny
      Concern about high hospital prices for commercially insured patients has motivated several proposals to regulate these prices. Such proposals often limit regulations to highly concentrated hospital markets. Using a large sample of 2017 US commercial insurance claims,...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Providers; Hospitals; Insurance Market Regulation; Price Regulation; Markets; Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Quality; Insurance; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Pany, Maximilian J., Michael E. Chernew, and Leemore S. Dafny. "Regulating Hospital Prices Based on Market Concentration Is Likely to Leave High-Price Hospitals Unaffected." Health Affairs 40, no. 9 (September 2021): 1386–1394.
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Invisible Inequality Leads to Punishing the Poor and Rewarding the Rich

      By: Oliver P. Hauser, Gordon T. Kraft-Todd, David Rand, Martin A. Nowak and Michael I. Norton
      Four experiments examine how the lack of awareness of inequality affects behaviour towards the rich and poor. In Experiment 1, participants who became aware that wealthy individuals donated a smaller percentage of their income switched from rewarding the wealthy to...  View Details
      Keywords: Income Transparency; Income; Wealth; Equality and Inequality; Knowledge; Behavior; Outcome or Result; Society; Policy
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      Hauser, Oliver P., Gordon T. Kraft-Todd, David Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Michael I. Norton. "Invisible Inequality Leads to Punishing the Poor and Rewarding the Rich." Behavioural Public Policy 5, no. 3 (July 2021): 333–353.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Dance Between Government and Private Investors: Public Entrepreneurial Finance around the Globe

      By: Jessica Bai, Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev and Josh Lerner
      This paper examines the interaction between governments and private capital investors when financing early-stage ventures. We first provide a simple conceptual framework to explore when collaboration between governments and private investors is likely to emerge. Using...  View Details
      Keywords: Public Entrepreneurship; Subsidy; Industrial Policy; Entrepreneurship; Public Sector; Financing and Loans; Venture Capital; Global Range
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      Bai, Jessica, Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev, and Josh Lerner. "The Dance Between Government and Private Investors: Public Entrepreneurial Finance around the Globe." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-120, April 2021. (Revised January 2022.)
      • January 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Amazon Shopper Panel: Paying Customers for Their Data

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      This case introduces a new Amazon program that has consumers upload their receipts from transactions outside of Amazon, in exchange for money. Through the discussion, the case aims to explore issues in customers’ privacy in the digital age, the value of customers’ own...  View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Privacy; Data Management; "Marketing Analytics"; Marketing Communication; Marketing Research; Data-driven Management; E-commerce; E-Commerce Strategy; Ethical Decision Making; CRM; Consumer Protection; Targeted Advertising; Targeted Policies; Data Ownership; Marketing; Research; Marketing Communications; Analytics and Data Science; Management; Customer Relationship Management; Ethics; Retail Industry; Technology Industry; United States
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Amazon Shopper Panel: Paying Customers for Their Data." Harvard Business School Case 521-058, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • January 2021
      • Article

      How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19

      By: Friedrich M. Götz, Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      The spread of COVID-19 within any given country or community at the onset of the pandemic depended in part on the sheltering-in-place rate of its citizens. The pandemic led us to revisit one of psychology’s most fundamental and most basic questions in a high-stakes...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Pandemic; Shelter-in-place; Personality; Government; Interactionism; Health Pandemics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Policy; Governance Compliance
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      Götz, Friedrich M., Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19." American Psychologist 76, no. 1 (January 2021): 39–49.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

      By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
      Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we...  View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
      • September 2020 (Revised April 2021)
      • Exercise

      Artea: Designing Targeting Strategies

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      This collection of exercises aims to teach students about 1)Targeting Policies; and 2)Algorithmic bias in marketing—implications, causes, and possible solutions. Part (A) focuses on A/B testing analysis and targeting. Parts (B),(C),(D) Introduce algorithmic bias. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Algorithmic Data; Race And Ethnicity; Experimentation; Promotion; "Marketing Analytics"; Marketing And Society; Big Data; Privacy; Data-driven Management; Data Analytics; Data Analysis; E-commerce; E-Commerce Strategy; Discrimination; Targeted Advertising; Targeted Policies; Targeting; Pricing Algorithms; A/B Testing; Ethical Decision Making; Customer Base Analysis; Customer Heterogeneity; Coupons; Marketing; Race; Gender; Diversity; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Communications; Advertising; Decision Making; Ethics; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Artea: Designing Targeting Strategies." Harvard Business School Exercise 521-021, September 2020. (Revised April 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in...  View Details
      Keywords: Reserves; Exchange Rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
      • June 18, 2020
      • Article

      What CEOs Still Haven't Said about Race and Policing

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
      While many CEOs have spoken out to share their thoughts on race and police misconduct in America, they have yet to advocate for policy solutions for police reform, focusing instead on their own corporate and personal values. But lasting change must also involve ...  View Details
      Keywords: Activism; CEO; Political Issues; Political Leadership; Racial Tensions; Racism; Leadership; Race; Communication; Government and Politics; Law; Organizational Culture; United States
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., and Michael W. Toffel. "What CEOs Still Haven't Said about Race and Policing." Harvard Business Review (website) (June 18, 2020).
      • June 2020 (Revised October 2020)
      • Case

      Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'

      By: Jonas Heese and Cristo Liautaud
      In May 2020, an analyst was assessing eHealth’s performance. eHealth was an online / tele-sales broker of health insurance products. The stock had recently hit all-time highs, closing at a peak of $146 on March 4, 2020. But now, May 4, 2020, eHealth traded at $103. The...  View Details
      Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Health; Insurance; Online Technology; Insurance Industry
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      Heese, Jonas, and Cristo Liautaud. "Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'." Harvard Business School Case 120-114, June 2020. (Revised October 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
      In SIR models, homogeneous or with a network structure, infection rates are assumed to be exogenous. However, individuals adjust their behavior. Using daily data for 89 cities worldwide, we document that mobility falls in response to fear, as approximated by Google...  View Details
      Keywords: Social Interactions; Pandemics; Mobility; Cities; SIR Networks; Social Preferences; Social Planner; Targeted Policies; Health Pandemics; Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, and Farzad Saidi. "Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27134, May 2020.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment

      By: Meg Rithmire
      How do state-business relations interact with outward investment in authoritarian regimes? This paper examines this question in the context of China’s rapid transformation into major capital exporter. While most political economy scholarship focuses on firms’ economic...  View Details
      Keywords: Outward Investment; Capital Controls; Investment; Global Range; Capital; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics; China
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      Rithmire, Meg. "Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-009, June 2019. (Revised January 2021.)
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