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Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide parameter, the only equilibrium is one in which...
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Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows and Global Imbalances
By: Laura Alfaro
We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross-section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign-to-sovereign... View Details
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The Politics of Consumer Credit
By: Gunnar Trumbull
A combination of factors has dramatically increased consumer access to and reliance upon credit across the OECD. These factors include financial liberalization and deregulation, improvements in consumer credit information and its analysis, and a growth in debt...
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Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
By: Laura Alfaro
Over the past decade, non-Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information...
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