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- March 2024
- Article
Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act
By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that...
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Keywords:
Policy;
Government Legislation;
Health Care and Treatment;
Negotiation;
Price;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Vogel, Matthew, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra, and Rena M. Conti. "Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act." Nature Biotechnology 42, no. 3 (March 2024): 406–412.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates
By: Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini and Charles Taylor
This paper introduces the concept of “climate matching” as a driver of migration and establishes several new results. First, we show that climate strongly predicts the spatial distribution of immigrants in the US, both historically (1880) and more recently (2015),...
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Keywords:
Migration;
Climate;
Immigration;
Residency;
Weather;
Ethnicity;
Climate Change;
Geographic Location;
Policy;
United States
- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still...
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Beutler, Dawson, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet. "Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 7 (July 2023): 144–158.
- 2023
- Article
Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models
By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider...
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Ravishankar, Pavan, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, no. 8 (2023): 9562–9569. (Presented at the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2/7/23-2/14/23) in Washington, DC.)
- April 2023
- Article
The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation
By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between...
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Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
- December 2022
- Case
To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM
By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM...
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Keywords:
Agriculture;
Leadership;
Agribusiness;
Acquisition;
Business Units;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Customer Value and Value Chain;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Capital;
Cash;
Cost of Capital;
Cost Management;
Profit;
Food;
Global Range;
Innovation Strategy;
Leadership Development;
Leadership Style;
Leading Change;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Risk Management;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Structure;
Strategic Planning;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Adaptation;
Business Strategy;
Corporate Strategy;
Vertical Integration;
Value Creation;
Transformation;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Energy Industry;
United States;
Chicago
Margolis, Joshua D., David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg, and James Weber. "To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM." Harvard Business School Case 423-060, December 2022.
- 2024
- Working Paper
You've Got Mail! The Late 19th Century U.S. Postal Service Expansion, Firm Creation, and Firm Performance
By: Astrid Marinoni and Maria P. Roche
We analyze the impact of the US Postal Service's expansion in the late 1800s on firm creation and performance. Exploiting novel data constructed from digitized archives on historic business establishments, post office locations, and road network characteristics in...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Institutional Innovation;
Knowledge Exchange;
US Postal Service;
Firm Performance;
Infrastructure;
Expansion;
Government Administration;
Communication;
Business History;
Public Administration Industry;
California
Marinoni, Astrid, and Maria P. Roche. "You've Got Mail! The Late 19th Century U.S. Postal Service Expansion, Firm Creation, and Firm Performance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-022, October 2022. (Revised March 2024.)
- July 2022 (Revised August 2022)
- Case
Athletic Brewing Company: Crafting the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beer Category
By: Ayelet Israeli and Anne V. Wilson
Athletic Brewing Company (“Athletic,” for short) was founded by Bill Shufelt and John Walker in 2017. In creating Athletic, Shufelt and Walker opened the first U.S. brewery and taproom fully devoted to the production of non-alcoholic (NA) craft beer. By 2021, Athletic...
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Keywords:
Advertising;
Brands and Branding;
Product Development;
Product Marketing;
Product Positioning;
Product Launch;
Product Design;
Product;
Competition;
Marketing;
Entrepreneurship;
Growth Management;
Cultural Entrepreneurship;
Culture;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States
Israeli, Ayelet, and Anne V. Wilson. "Athletic Brewing Company: Crafting the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beer Category." Harvard Business School Case 523-021, July 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
- July 2022
- Article
Countercyclical Prudential Buffers and Bank Risk-taking
By: Manuel Illueca, Lars Norden, Joseph Pacelli and Gregory F. Udell
We investigate the effects of countercyclical prudential buffers on bank risk-taking. We exploit the introduction of dynamic loan loss provisioning in Spain, mandating that banks use historical average loss rates in their estimation of loan loss provisions. We find...
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Keywords:
Banks;
Bank Regulation;
Macroprudential Policies;
Bank Lending;
Loan Loss Provisioning;
Risk Taking;
Banks and Banking;
Financing and Loans;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Risk and Uncertainty
Illueca, Manuel, Lars Norden, Joseph Pacelli, and Gregory F. Udell. "Countercyclical Prudential Buffers and Bank Risk-taking." Art. 100961. Journal of Financial Intermediation 51 (July 2022).
- Article
Small States in an Age of Empires: The Duchy of Parma's Colonial Moment, 1750–1770
By: Arnaud Orain and Sophus A. Reinert
Often thought of as the "Athens of Italy" during the Enlightenment, and as a microcosm of the Italian peninsula and of the eighteenth century alike, the Duchy of Parma played a unique role in the culture and politics of the age. This essay focuses on its "colonial...
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Keywords:
Duchy Of Parma;
French Empire;
Internal Colonization;
Enlightenment;
Political Economy;
Small States In World Markets;
Guillaume Dutillot;
Étienne-François De Choiseul
Orain, Arnaud, and Sophus A. Reinert. "Small States in an Age of Empires: The Duchy of Parma's Colonial Moment, 1750–1770." Capitalism: A Journal of History and Economics 3, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 57–105.
- December 2021
- Article
Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly
By: Andrea Bellovary, Nathaniel Young and Amit Goldenberg
Negativity has historically dominated news content; however, little research has examined how news organizations use affect on social media, where content is generally positive. In the current project we ask a few questions: Do news organizations on Twitter use...
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Keywords:
Negative Press;
Twitter;
Political Affiliation;
Affect;
News;
Media;
Internet and the Web;
Emotions;
Perspective;
Social Media
Bellovary, Andrea, Nathaniel Young, and Amit Goldenberg. "Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly." Affective Science 2, no. 4 (December 2021): 391–396.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai's Concession Era
By: Laura Alfaro, Cathy Bao, Maggie X. Chen, Junjie Hong and Claudia Steinwender
We investigate how firms and markets adapt to trademark protection, an extensively used
but under-examined form of IP protection to address asymmetric information, by exploring
a historical precedent: China’s trademark law of 1923. Exploiting unique, newly...
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Keywords:
Trademark;
Firm Dynamics;
Intermediaries;
Intellectual Property Institutions;
Trademarks;
Intellectual Property;
Laws and Statutes;
Outcome or Result;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
China
Alfaro, Laura, Cathy Bao, Maggie X. Chen, Junjie Hong, and Claudia Steinwender. "Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai's Concession Era." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-030, November 2021. (Revised November 2022. Revise and Resubmit American Economic Review.)
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Deaths;
Reporting;
Incentives;
Government Policy;
Health Pandemics;
Health Care and Treatment;
Country;
Crisis Management;
Outcome or Result;
Reports;
Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
- July 2021
- Article
Structuring Local Environments to Avoid Diversity: Anxiety Drives Whites' Geographical and Institutional Self-Segregation Preferences
By: Eric Anicich, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Merrick Osborne and L. Taylor Phillips
The current research explores how local racial diversity affects Whites’ efforts to structure their local communities to avoid incidental intergroup contact. In two experimental studies (N=509; Studies 1a-b), we consider Whites’ choices to structure a fictional,...
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Keywords:
Segregration;
Structural/institutional Racism;
Organizational Exclusion;
Diversity;
Race;
Organizations;
Local Range;
Prejudice and Bias
Anicich, Eric, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Merrick Osborne, and L. Taylor Phillips. "Structuring Local Environments to Avoid Diversity: Anxiety Drives Whites' Geographical and Institutional Self-Segregation Preferences." Art. 104117. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 95 (July 2021).
- July–August 2021
- Article
Surfacing the Submerged State: Operational Transparency Increases Trust in and Engagement with Government
By: Ryan W. Buell, Ethan Porter and Michael I. Norton
Problem definition: As trust in government reaches historic lows, frustration with government performance approaches record highs.
Academic/practical relevance: We propose that in co-productive settings like government services, peoples’ trust and...
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Keywords:
Government Services;
Behavioral Operations;
Operational Transparency;
Government Administration;
Service Operations;
Programs;
Perception;
Attitudes;
Behavior;
Trust
Buell, Ryan W., Ethan Porter, and Michael I. Norton. "Surfacing the Submerged State: Operational Transparency Increases Trust in and Engagement with Government." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 23, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 781–802.
- April 2021 (Revised April 2021)
- Case
Project Restart: Deciding the Future of English Football
By: Nour Kteily and Deepak Malhotra
In March 2020, the English Premier League football (soccer) season was suspended partway through due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two months later the season remained in limbo, with a looming deadline to decide whether to attempt to complete the season or curtail it—and...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Sports;
Health Pandemics;
Decision Making;
Fairness;
Values and Beliefs;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Motivation and Incentives;
Outcome or Result;
Perception;
Negotiation;
Sports Industry;
United Kingdom
Kteily, Nour, and Deepak Malhotra. "Project Restart: Deciding the Future of English Football." Harvard Business School Case 921-050, April 2021. (Revised April 2021.)
- December 2020
- Article
Taking Innovation to the Streets: Micro-geography, Physical Structure and Innovation
By: Maria P. Roche
In this paper, we analyze how the physical layout of cities affects innovation by influencing the organization of knowledge exchange. We exploit a novel data set covering all Census Block Groups in the contiguous United States with information on innovation outcomes,...
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Keywords:
Microgeography;
Innovation;
Street Infrastructure;
Knowledge Exchange;
Interactions;
Geography;
City;
Innovation and Invention;
Knowledge Sharing
Roche, Maria P. "Taking Innovation to the Streets: Micro-geography, Physical Structure and Innovation." Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no. 5 (December 2020): 912–928.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Party-State Capitalism in China
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
The “state capitalism” model, in which the state retains a dominant role as owner or investor-shareholder amidst the presence of markets and private firms, has received increasing attention, with China cited as the main exemplar. Yet as models evolve, so has China’s...
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Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "Party-State Capitalism in China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-065, November 2020.
- November 2020
- Article
Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Hillel Rapoport
We investigate the relationship between the presence of migrant inventors and the dynamics of innovation in the migrants’ receiving countries. We find that countries are 25 to 60 percent more likely to gain advantage in patenting in certain technologies given a twofold...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Migration;
Patent;
Knowledge;
Innovation and Invention;
Immigration;
Patents;
Information Technology;
Knowledge Dissemination
Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Hillel Rapoport. "Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations." Special Issue on STEM Migration, Research, and Innovation. Research Policy 49, no. 9 (November 2020).
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation
By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged...
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Regier, Matthias, and Ethan Rouen. "The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-047, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)