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Show Results For
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All HBS Web
(4,743)
- People (9)
- News (1,439)
- Research (2,545)
- Events (23)
- Multimedia (16)
- Faculty Publications (551)
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- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two...
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Keywords:
Probability Forecasts;
Quantile Forecasts;
Expert Combination;
Linear Opinion Pooling;
Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- 11 May 2020
- News
Better Than Cash
Courtesy Ruth Goodwin-Groen Ruth Goodwin-Groen (MBA 2001) has a lot of work to do. “Our job will not be done until all people—old or young, rich or poor, male or female—are able to make and receive payments in a way that works for them,” says Goodwin-Groen, managing...
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- 14 Jan 2021
- News
Better Than Cash
financial history. Ruth Goodwin-Groen (MBA 2001) is on a mission to change that. “Our job will not be done until all people—old or young, rich or poor, male or female—are able to make and receive payments in a way that works for them,” says Goodwin-Groen, managing...
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- 01 Jun 2005
- News
Better than Cash
housing, so we’ve shifted our focus.” The CAP program was established by the Boston HBS association in 1993 and has since served more than 150 nonprofits with a variety of missions, including the environment, education, housing, health...
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- 09 Oct 2018
- News
We Deserve Better Than “Attagirl”
- 30 Jan 2024
- News
‘Intrinsic Joy’ Sparks Ideas Better than Cash
- 15 Mar 2017
- Blog Post
An Average Day at HBS
especially in your first year, no two days look or feel the same. That makes it extremely difficult to outline what my average weekday and weekend looks like, but I will do my best! Weekdays Not surprisingly, during the week the primary...
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- 13 Jan 2016
- News
Winning GE: Better than the Olympics
- 21 Apr 2010
- News
A better fail-safe than CoCo bonds
- 06 May 2009
- News
Clayton Christensen: Something is better than nothing
- 04 Dec 2013
- News
Crowdsourcing: Why many heads are better than one
- 25 Oct 2022
- News
Offices Are Better for Mingling Than for Focusing
- 25 Oct 2022
- News
Offices Are Better for Mingling Than for Focusing
- 29 Mar 2011
- News
Four Reasons Any Action Is Better than None
- 20 Oct 2009
- News