Publications
Publications
- 2023
- HBS Working Paper Series
Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms
By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
Abstract
The emergence of green constituencies enables climate action. Conventional wisdom holds
that first-hand experience with natural disasters helps build green coalitions by increasing
the salience of the costs of environmental degradation. Focusing on fires in Brazil, we
argue instead that the impact of disasters on support for green candidates is conditional
on the economic damages and profit opportunities they generate. By destroying natural
vegetation, fires increase opportunities for land grabbing and expanding agricultural and
livestock production. We test our argument by applying causal inference techniques and
leveraging satellite, administrative, electoral, and survey data. We show that large-scale fires
increase support for green candidates only in municipalities with low shares of employment
in soy production and cattle ranching, which are arguably less likely to benefit from fires.
We conclude that the potential of natural disasters to create green coalitions is conditional
on their distributive implications.
Keywords
Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
Citation
Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-023, September 2023.