Publications
Publications
- 2023
- HBS Working Paper Series
Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic
By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl
Abstract
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using
experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we
study how leader cues influence decisions about issues of direct personal relevance,
such as social distancing. We first document a divergence in mobility and excess-death
trends between municipalities with different concentrations of Bolsonaro voters. Second,
we provide evidence from two pre-registered survey experiments confirming that these
differences are likely explained by Bolsonaro cues polarizing the electorate regarding
COVID-19-related issues. We then explore whether voters react to Bolsonaro’s cues
as a way to make decisions with little cognitive effort (heuristics) or to express group
membership (expressive utility). We conclude that while his supporters follow his cues
to protect their social-political identity, the drivers of his opponents’ reactions are
mixed.
Keywords
Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
Citation
Gagete-Miranda, Jessica, Lucas Argentieri Mariani, and Paula Rettl. "Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023.