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- 2024
- Working Paper
Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization
This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets...
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Keywords:
Heterogeneous Treatment Effect;
Multi-task Learning;
Representation Learning;
Personalization;
Promotion;
Deep Learning;
Field Experiments;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Customization and Personalization
Huang, Ta-Wei, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-076, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Don’t Expect Juniors to Teach Senior Professionals to Use Generative AI: Emerging Technology Risks and Novice AI Risk Mitigation Tactics
By: Katherine C. Kellogg, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Frabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani
The literature on communities of practice demonstrates that a proven way for senior professionals to upskill
themselves in the use of new technologies that undermine existing expertise is to learn from junior
professionals. It notes that juniors may be better able...
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Kellogg, Katherine C., Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Frabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Don’t Expect Juniors to Teach Senior Professionals to Use Generative AI: Emerging Technology Risks and Novice AI Risk Mitigation Tactics." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-074, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
Researchers and practitioners have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously test multiple treatments, each with different levels. With the rise of technologies like Generative AI, factorial experimentation has become even more accessible: it is easier than ever...
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Keywords:
Factorial Designs;
Fisher Randomizations;
Rank Estimators;
Employer Interventions;
Causal Inference;
Mathematical Methods;
Performance Improvement
DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Iavor I. Bojinov, and Fiammetta Menchetti. "Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-075, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Demographically Biased Technological Change
By: Victor Manuel Bennett, John-Paul Ferguson, Masoomeh Kalantari and Rembrand Koning
Who gets the jobs that automation creates? A consensus has begun to emerge that said technologies complement rather than substitute for labor. However, they also shift the demand forspecific types of skills and other worker competencies. Such shifts imply unequal...
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Bennett, Victor Manuel, John-Paul Ferguson, Masoomeh Kalantari, and Rembrand Koning. "Demographically Biased Technological Change." Working Paper, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Investor Influence on Media Coverage: Evidence from Venture Capital-Backed Startups
By: Brian K. Baik and Albert Shin
We examine the role of investors on the media coverage of their private firm investments. Specifically, we survey VC investors and find that 78% of the respondents take active steps to increase their portfolio companies’ media coverage. The survey results also...
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Baik, Brian K., and Albert Shin. "Investor Influence on Media Coverage: Evidence from Venture Capital-Backed Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-073, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Health, Human Capital Development and the Longevity of Japanese Elites Since 710
By: Tom Nicholas and Hiroshi Shimizu
We examine the lifespan of over 40,000 elites in Japan born between 710 and 1912, including samurai warriors, feudal lords, business, political, cultural, and religious leaders at the apex of the social hierarchy. Japanese elites experienced increases in lifespan about...
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Nicholas, Tom, and Hiroshi Shimizu. "Health, Human Capital Development and the Longevity of Japanese Elites Since 710." Working Paper, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Private Equity and Digital Transformation
By: Brian K. Baik, Wilbur Chen and Suraj Srinivasan
We study the role which private equity (PE) plays in digital transformation. We find that PE investment is associated with greater investments into portfolio firm’s digital technologies, as measured by IT expenditures and the hiring demand for AI skills. This...
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Keywords:
Digital Transformation;
Private Equity;
Selection and Staffing;
Investment Portfolio;
Value Creation
Baik, Brian K., Wilbur Chen, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Private Equity and Digital Transformation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-070, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Value of AI Innovations
By: Wilbur Xinyuan Chen, Terrence Tianshuo Shi and Suraj Srinivasan
We study the value of AI innovations as it diffuses across general and application sectors, using the United States Patent and Trademark Office’s (USPTO) AI patent dataset. Investors value these innovations more than others, as AI patents exhibit a 9% value premium,...
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Keywords:
AI and Machine Learning;
Valuation;
Technological Innovation;
Open Source Distribution;
Patents;
Policy;
Knowledge Sharing;
Technology Industry
Chen, Wilbur Xinyuan, Terrence Tianshuo Shi, and Suraj Srinivasan. "The Value of AI Innovations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-069, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
LASH Risk and Interest Rates
By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu
We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value...
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Alfaro, Laura, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell, and Ioana Neamtu. "LASH Risk and Interest Rates." Working Paper, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Creditor-on-Creditor Violence and Secured Debt Dynamics
By: Samuel Antill, Neng Wang and Zhaoli Jiang
Anticipating a borrower's default, secured lenders have recently used aggressive legal tactics to extract value from other secured lenders. We model the implications of this new "creditor-on-creditor violence'' trend. In our novel continuous-time capital structure...
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Antill, Samuel, Neng Wang, and Zhaoli Jiang. "Creditor-on-Creditor Violence and Secured Debt Dynamics." Working Paper, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda
By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden
Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic...
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Keywords:
Immigrant Employment;
Immigration;
Entrepreneurship;
Demographics;
Innovation and Invention
Chodavadia, Saheel, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis Maiden. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-068, April 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Bank Runs and Interest Rates: A Revolving Lines Perspective
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Revolving credit is at the core of the banking business. Corporate revolving credit lines are demandable claims; thus, similar to a traditional bank run on deposits, sudden widespread drawdowns on credit lines can be destabilizing to the banking sector. However, we...
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Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "Bank Runs and Interest Rates: A Revolving Lines Perspective." Working Paper, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Old Moats for New Models: Openness, Control, and Competition in Generative AI
By: Pierre Azoulay, Joshua L. Krieger and Abhishek Nagaraj
Drawing insights from the field of innovation economics, we discuss the likely competitive environment shaping generative AI advances. Central to our analysis are the concepts of appropriability—whether firms in the industry are able to control the knowledge generated...
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Azoulay, Pierre, Joshua L. Krieger, and Abhishek Nagaraj. "Old Moats for New Models: Openness, Control, and Competition in Generative AI." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 7442, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The...
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Armona, Luis, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32512, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Dusting Off the Old Ones: Drug Licensing to Startups, Innovation Success and Efficiency
By: Mosab Hammoudeh, Joshua Lev Krieger and Jiajie Xu
This paper investigates whether moving R&D from incumbents to startups can increase innovation. Using comprehensive drug development data, we examine the outcomes of drug projects licensed from large firms to startups. We find that these projects licensed to startups...
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Keywords:
Product Development;
Innovation and Invention;
Business Startups;
Research and Development;
Performance Efficiency;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Hammoudeh, Mosab, Joshua Lev Krieger, and Jiajie Xu. "Dusting Off the Old Ones: Drug Licensing to Startups, Innovation Success and Efficiency." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-067, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,...
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Keywords:
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Working Conditions;
Performance Productivity
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, April 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Business Experiments as Persuasion
By: Orie Shelef, Rebecca Karp and Robert Wuebker
Much of the prior work on experimentation rests upon the assumption that entrepreneurs and managers use—or should optimally adopt—a "scientific approach" to test possible decisions before making them. This paper offers an alternative view of experimental strategy,...
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Shelef, Orie, Rebecca Karp, and Robert Wuebker. "Business Experiments as Persuasion." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-065, March 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions...
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Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Philipp Chvanov. "Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-066, January 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States
By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons
Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes....
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Gethin, Amory, and Vincent Pons. "Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32342, April 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments
By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt to conduct two randomized...
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Kluender, Raymond, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong, and Wesley Yin. "The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32315, April 2024.