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- Faculty Publications (157)
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- All HBS Web (570)
- Faculty Publications (157)
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation...
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Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- August 1995
- Case
Credit General, SA
By: Andre F. Perold
The head of a bank's asset and liability committee has to approve an unexpectedly large overnight currency exposure or require at great cost that the exposure be reduced.
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Perold, Andre F. "Credit General, SA." Harvard Business School Case 296-011, August 1995.
- September 2006 (Revised August 2007)
- Background Note
The History of Credit Agencies in the United States
By: F. Warren McFarlan and Tracy Manty
Provides a brief background on the history of credit agencies in the United States. Focuses on the mature process of data collection on an American consumer and how credit agencies share the information to determine proper credit risk and worthiness of a consumer. The...
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McFarlan, F. Warren, and Tracy Manty. "The History of Credit Agencies in the United States." Harvard Business School Background Note 307-057, September 2006. (Revised August 2007.)
- February 2018
- Article
Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection
By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane
During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To...
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Keywords:
Leverage;
Credit Risk;
Crisis Management;
Equity;
Volatility;
Credit;
Risk Management;
Financial Crisis
Engle, Robert F., and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 2 (February 2018): 449–492.
- April 2010
- Case
The Credit Crisis of 2008: An Overview
By: V.G. Narayanan, Fabrizio Ferri and Lisa Brem
This case examines the causes and consequences of the credit crisis of 2008 from a national and global perspective and explores the actions taken and proposed by the U.S. and European governments.
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Keywords:
Credit;
Financial Crisis;
Crisis Management;
Risk Management;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Global Strategy;
Mortgages;
Performance Effectiveness;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Narayanan, V.G., Fabrizio Ferri, and Lisa Brem. "The Credit Crisis of 2008: An Overview." Harvard Business School Case 110-048, April 2010.
- 14 Mar 2011
- Research & Ideas
Keeping Credit Flowing to Consumers in Need
The credit crunch and subsequent collapse of the nonprime mortgage market claimed many victims, including hundreds of thousands of low- and moderate-income Americans who lost their homes and savings. Today, regulators and policymakers are...
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- Research Summary
Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)
In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the...
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- January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
- Background Note
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process
By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating.
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Keywords:
Financial Markets;
Credit;
Bonds;
Policy;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Measurement and Metrics;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Services Industry
Abdelal, Rawi E., and Christopher Bruner. "Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process." Harvard Business School Background Note 705-027, January 2005. (Revised October 2005.)
- May 2013
- Teaching Plan
High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital
By: Clayton Rose and David Lane
Late in 2010, Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan and his team considered whether or not to issue contingent capital, which Swiss regulators would require by 2019. They faced a number of substantial issues, including: Would contingent capital actually work as conceptualized...
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Keywords:
Financial Institutions;
Capital Markets;
Financial Crisis;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Leadership;
International Finance;
Financial Liquidity;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Competitive Strategy;
Financial Services Industry;
Switzerland
Rose, Clayton, and David Lane. "High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 313-048, May 2013.
- March 2009 (Revised May 2011)
- Case
Risk Management at Wellfleet Bank: Deciding about "Megadeals"
By: Anette Mikes
Inspired by one of the few banks that successfully weathered the 2007-2009 credit crisis, the case illustrates risk management in a corporate finance business. Chief executive Alastair Dowes has to decide if the risk governance process is adequate to uncover mega-risks...
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Keywords:
Risk Management;
Decision Making;
Performance Evaluation;
Credit;
Balance and Stability;
Integrated Corporate Reporting;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Negotiation Offer;
Performance Effectiveness;
Corporate Finance;
Banking Industry
Mikes, Anette. Risk Management at Wellfleet Bank: Deciding about "Megadeals". Harvard Business School Case 109-071, March 2009. (Revised May 2011.)
- August 2011 (Revised October 2014)
- Case
High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital (A)
By: Clayton S. Rose and Aldo Sesia
Late in 2010, Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan and his team closed in on the decision of whether or not to issue contingent capital, which Swiss regulators would require by 2019. There were a number of substantial issues facing Dougan and his team, including whether...
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Keywords:
Financial Institutions;
Capital Markets;
Financial Crisis;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Leadership;
International Finance;
Financial Liquidity;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Competitive Strategy;
Financial Services Industry;
Switzerland
Rose, Clayton S., and Aldo Sesia. "High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital (A)." Harvard Business School Case 312-007, August 2011. (Revised October 2014.)
- 23 Jan 2023
- Research & Ideas
After High-Profile Failures, Can Investors Still Trust Credit Ratings?
During the financial crisis of 2008, major credit rating agencies faced sharp criticism for failing to recognize and warn of the risks of emerging instruments like mortgage-backed securities. Since that...
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Keywords:
by Ben Rand
- 31 Aug 2009
- Research & Ideas
Why Competition May Not Improve Credit Rating Agencies
In the run-up to the global financial crisis, credit rating agencies gave high marks to such risky financial vehicles as collateralized debt obligations, which few people understood. It has been argued that these ratings misled investors...
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- 15 Aug 2007
- Op-Ed
3 Steps to Reduce Financial System Risk
agencies, uneven supervisory coverage, and politically driven legislative reactions. In the process, much of the initial beneficial impact of credit risk transfer technology may be negated. 3 steps can...
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- 2011
- Book
Moving Forward: The Future of Consumer Credit and Mortgage Finance
By: Nicolas P. Retsinas and Eric Belsky
The recent collapse of the mortgage market revealed fractures in the credit market that have deep roots in the system's structure, conduct, and regulation. The time has come for a clear-eyed assessment of what happened and how the system should be strengthened and...
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Keywords:
Financial Crisis;
Capital Markets;
Credit;
Financial Markets;
Mortgages;
Personal Finance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Demand and Consumers;
Financial Services Industry
Retsinas, Nicolas P., and Eric Belsky, eds. Moving Forward: The Future of Consumer Credit and Mortgage Finance. Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
- July 2009 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Delphi Corp. and the Credit Derivatives Market (A)
By: Stuart C. Gilson, Victoria Ivashina and Sarah Abbott
In 2005, Jane Bauer-Martin, a hedge fund manager, is considering what she should do with the fund's large investment in the publicly traded bonds of Delphi Corp., a financially troubled auto parts supplier. Delphi is General Motor's key auto parts supplier, and, like...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Bonds;
Financial Management;
Risk Management
Gilson, Stuart C., Victoria Ivashina, and Sarah Abbott. "Delphi Corp. and the Credit Derivatives Market (A)." Harvard Business School Case 210-002, July 2009. (Revised July 2009.)
- 22 Jul 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Reputation and Competition: Evidence from the Credit Rating Industry
- 03 Nov 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?
- August 1994
- Background Note
Derivative Markets: Structure and Risks
Gives a conceptual understanding of derivative products, their applications, and valuation. After a brief treatment of exchange-traded derivatives, explores over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, emphasizing the market, credit, legal, operational, and other risks...
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Mason, Scott P., and Kuljot Singh. "Derivative Markets: Structure and Risks." Harvard Business School Background Note 295-009, August 1994.
- 11 Apr 2012
- Research & Ideas
The High Risks of Short-Term Management
case, short-termism manifested itself through the myopic underweighting of the long-term adverse consequences associated with the high credit risk of many mortgage holders and the possibility of a halt to...
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