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- Article
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected But Not Accounted For
By: Christine L. Exley and Kirby Nielsen
We investigate how the gender gap in confidence affects the views that evaluators (e.g., employers) hold about men and women. If evaluators fail to account for the confidence gap, it may cause overly pessimistic views about women. Alternatively, if evaluators expect...
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Keywords:
Confidence;
Experiments;
Gender;
Perception;
Values and Beliefs;
Performance Evaluation;
Analysis
- October 2022
- Article
Underestimating Counterparts' Learning Goals Impairs Conflictual Conversations
By: Hanne K. Collins, Charles A. Dorison, Francesca Gino and Julia A. Minson
Given the difficulty people have engaging with disagreeing views across contexts—from political discussions to workplace conflicts—it is critical to understand how conflictual conversation can be improved. While previous work has focused on strategies to change...
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- Fall 2022
- Article
China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about COVID
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 U.S. survey of beliefs about the lethality of COVID reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...
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- August 2022
- Article
The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices
By: Aaron R. Brough, David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa and Leslie K. John
Drawing from a content analysis of publicly traded companies’ privacy notices, a survey of managers, a field study, and five online experiments, this research investigates how consumers respond to privacy notices. A privacy notice, by placing legally enforceable limits...
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- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...
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- July 2022
- Article
Private Equity and COVID-19
By: Paul A. Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM) about their portfolio performance, decisionmaking and activities during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that PE managers have significant incentives to...
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- June 2022 (Revised September 2022)
- Case
Netflix’s Culture: Binge or Cringe?
By: Hubert Joly, Leonard A. Schlesinger, James Barnett and Stacy Straaberg
In April 2022, streaming entertainment company Netflix lost customers for the first time in more than 10 years. Once a first mover in the streaming landscape, Netflix was facing competition from Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, HBO Max, and others. A key component of...
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Keywords:
Compensation and Benefits;
Employees;
Recruitment;
Resignation and Termination;
Retention;
Selection and Staffing;
Innovation and Management;
Innovation Strategy;
Leadership Style;
Business or Company Management;
Management Style;
Media;
Business Processes;
Organizational Culture;
Organizational Structure;
Performance Expectations;
Performance Productivity;
Creativity;
Business Strategy;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
Media and Broadcasting Industry;
Motion Pictures and Video Industry;
Video Game Industry;
North America;
California;
Canada;
Europe;
Middle East;
Africa;
Asia;
Latin America
- 2022
- Working Paper
Beliefs about Gender Differences in Social Preferences
By: Christine L Exley, Oliver P. Hauser, Molly Moore and John-Henry Pezzuto
While there is a vast (and mixed) literature on gender differences in social preferences, little is known about believed gender differences in social preferences. This paper documents robust evidence for believed gender differences in social preferences. Across a wide...
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- May 2022
- Case
Byte
By: Boris Groysberg, Katherine Connolly Baden and Julia Kelley
In January 2021, Byte co-founders Scott Cohen and Blake Johnson reflected on how far their Los Angeles-based direct-to-consumer (DTC) orthodontics company had come since launching its clear aligners just a little over two years earlier. Cohen and Johnson were both...
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- April 6, 2022
- Article
5 Principles of Purposeful Leadership
By: Hubert Joly
The traditional model of the leader-hero who saves the day, knows it all, is the smartest person in the room, and is too often driven by power, fame, glory, or money is not appropriate in today’s environment. People today expect a different kind of leader. While each...
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- March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon
By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into...
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Keywords:
Business Startup;
Fintech;
Inflation;
Deflation;
Cross-border Frictions;
Remittances;
Business Startups;
Diasporas;
Financial Crisis;
Money;
Entrepreneurship;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Poverty;
Financial Institutions;
Banking Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
Technology Industry;
Lebanon
- March 2022 (Revised April 2022)
- Teaching Note
Group Functions at the Maersk Group
By: David J. Collis
In 2014, seven years after he was appointed CEO of the Danish shipping and oil conglomerate A.P. Møller Maersk (the Maersk Group), Nils Andersen was reexamining the size and role of corporate headquarters in the company he had reshaped as a "premium conglomerate."...
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- Article
A Better Way to Assess Managerial Performance
Total shareholder return (TSR) has become the definitive metric for gauging performance. Unlike accounting measures such as revenue growth or earnings per share that reflect the past, TSR is based on share price and thus captures investor expectations of what will...
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- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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- March 2022
- Article
Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-based Models: A New Protocol
By: Emanuele Borgonovo, Marco Pangallo, Jan Rivkin, Leonardo Rizzo and Nicolaj Siggelkow
Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in the management sciences. Though useful, ABMs are often critiqued: it is hard to discern why they produce the results they do and whether other assumptions would yield similar results. To help researchers address such...
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- 2022
- Article
Which Corporate ESG News Does the Market React To?
By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon
Using a dataset that classifies firm-level ESG news as positive and negative, we examine how stock prices react to different types of ESG news. We analyze 111,020 firm-day observations for 3,126 companies and find that prices react only to issues identified as...
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- February 2022 (Revised March 2022)
- Case
Aleph Farms: A New Culture of Meat
By: Elie Ofek and Jeff Huizinga
Aleph Farms, an Israeli food-tech start-up, was hoping to play a major role in disrupting the conventional meat sector. Compared to intensive agricultural practices, Aleph’s cultured (or lab-grown) meat solution held the promise of considerably reducing greenhouse gas...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Disruptive Innovation;
Adoption;
Go To Market Strategy;
Industry Evolution;
Food Industry;
Environmental And Social Sustainability;
Marketing Of Innovations;
Brand Building;
Capital Expenditures-equipment;
Disruption;
Green Technology;
Environmental Sustainability;
Food;
Market Entry and Exit;
Brands and Branding;
Consumer Behavior;
Competitive Strategy;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Food and Beverage Industry