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(1,262)
- News (117)
- Research (1,004)
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- Faculty Publications (765)
Show Results For
-
All HBS Web
(1,262)
- News (117)
- Research (1,004)
- Events (2)
- Multimedia (5)
- Faculty Publications (765)
- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating...
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Keywords:
Economics;
Price;
Assets;
Analytics and Data Science;
Customers;
Stocks;
Equity;
Strategy;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- 15 Nov 2012
- Research & Ideas
Funding the Design of Livable Cities
four primary trends driving the development of innovative solutions: The first is the world's population growth, forecast by the United Nations to reach roughly 9 billion by 2050, and the mass migration from the countryside and agrarian...
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- 01 Apr 2002
- News
Pamela Thomas Graham
the story of Enron's collapse continues to unfold, Thomas-Graham is hesitant to predict how the debacle might change the business world. "I would not position myself as a forecaster of future events, but there's certainly going to be more...
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- Web
CFO Letter - Annual Report 2019
from Publishing, Executive Education, and Online is forecasted to increase approximately 2 percent. Revenue from MBA tuition and fees is expected to be flat in fiscal 2020 for the first time in decades, reflecting the School’s efforts to...
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- January 2010
- Article
The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy
By: Greg Barron and Stephen Leider
Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary...
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Keywords:
Experience and Expertise;
Decision Making;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Knowledge Acquisition;
Outcome or Result;
Game Theory;
Prejudice and Bias
Barron, Greg, and Stephen Leider. "The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
- 24 Aug 2020
- Blog Post
My Journey to Joining the first MS/MBA Biotechnology: Life Sciences Cohort
forecasting expected revenues, to developing an equity investing plan for a major pharmaceutical company and performing due diligence on M&A targets. I also spent four months on secondment within a pharma company's Commercial Oncology...
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- 16 Jun 2015
- First Look
First Look: June 16, 2015
importance of return on equity in forecasting future stock returns depends on the quality of the accounting information. This extension also reconciles our model with alternative characteristic-based forecasters. These findings suggest...
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Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 25 Jun 2013
- First Look
First Look: June 25
by GBS, Alan Torres, vice president of North America Fabric Care, must finalize the forecast for P&G's laundry detergent sales. Results for the two months since introducing concentrated powder laundry detergent in select retailers saw...
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Keywords:
Anna Secino
- June 2019 (Revised September 2019)
- Case
Parrot: Navigating the Nascent Drone Industry
By: Rory M. McDonald, Emilie Billaud and Vincent Dessain
In 2018, Henri Seydoux, CEO and Founder of Parrot, believed that his company was at an inflection point in its history. Parrot had been a European leader in consumer electronics since the 1990s, first developing Bluetooth kits for cars before moving on to electronic...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Disruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Corporate Strategy;
Technological Innovation;
Leading Change;
Competitive Advantage;
Information Technology;
Competitive Strategy;
Consumer Products Industry;
Electronics Industry;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
Motion Pictures and Video Industry;
Technology Industry;
Video Game Industry;
Europe;
France;
Paris
McDonald, Rory M., Emilie Billaud, and Vincent Dessain. "Parrot: Navigating the Nascent Drone Industry." Harvard Business School Case 619-085, June 2019. (Revised September 2019.)
- June 2018 (Revised April 2021)
- Supplement
Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period
By: Benjamin C. Esty, Marco Di Maggio and Greg Saldutte
Keywords:
Sell-side Analysts;
Underwriters;
Investment Banking;
Social Network;
Discounted Cash Flow;
Cost Of Capital;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Corporate Governance;
Advertising;
Quiet Period;
Business Startups;
Digital Marketing;
Initial Public Offering;
Information Infrastructure;
Valuation;
Venture Capital;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Social Media;
United States;
California
- June 2018
- Supplement
Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (B)
By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty
Analyzes Snap’s value and analyst recommendations following the events described in the (A) case.
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Keywords:
Sell-side Analysts;
Underwriters;
Investment Banking;
Social Network;
Discounted Cash Flow;
Cost Of Capital;
Conflicts Of Interest;
Corporate Governance;
Advertising;
Quiet Period;
Business Startups;
Digital Marketing;
Initial Public Offering;
Information Infrastructure;
Valuation;
Venture Capital;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Social Media;
Advertising Industry;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
Web Services Industry;
United States;
California
Di Maggio, Marco, and Benjamin C. Esty. "Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 218-096, June 2018.
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Price;
Financial Liquidity;
Trade;
Valuation;
Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- Article
Competition for Scarce Resources
By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White
We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently...
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Keywords:
Competitive Strategy;
Natural Environment;
Technology;
Production;
Business Cycles;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Cost;
Demand and Consumers;
Industry Structures;
Performance Capacity
Eso, Peter, Volker Nocke, and Lucy White. "Competition for Scarce Resources." RAND Journal of Economics 41, no. 3 (Fall 2010): 524–548.
- June 2009
- Article
Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals
By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the...
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Keywords:
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Film Entertainment;
Demand and Consumers;
Renting or Rental;
Power and Influence;
Prejudice and Bias;
Online Technology;
Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Management Science 55, no. 6 (June 2009): 1047–1059.
- July 2019
- Article
I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice
By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis
People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen...
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Keywords:
Self-other Difference;
Social Perception;
Inference-making;
Preferences;
Consumer Behavior;
Prediction;
Prediction Error;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Perception;
Behavior;
Forecasting and Prediction
Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Ioannis Evangelidis. "I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice." Special Issue on The Cognitive Science of Political Thought. Cognition 188 (July 2019): 85–97.
- October 2013
- Article
How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies
By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input...
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Keywords:
Supply Chain;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Framework;
Prejudice and Bias;
Mathematical Methods
Puranam, Phanish, Ranjay Gulati, and Sourav Bhattacharya. "How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies." Strategic Management Journal 34, no. 10 (October 2013): 1145–1161.
- May 2006
- Case
Nokia in 2003
By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations....
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- 15 Aug 2016
- Research & Ideas
Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction
how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting...
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- 24 Feb 2015
- First Look
First Look: February 24
persistent but can also be associated with firms' risk or growth characteristics, implying that ICC regressions are likely confounded by spurious correlations. Moreover, I document that biases in GLS' measurement errors are driven not only by analysts' systematic View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 12 Oct 1999
- Research & Ideas
Building Bridges: New Dimensions in Negotiation
differences in their forecasts of future events (such as the profitability of a business being sold), attitudes toward risk and time, tax and regulatory status, market and technological knowledge and access, and so on. The third dimension...
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Keywords:
by Anita M. Harris