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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (95)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns...
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Data Analytics;
Investing;
Loans;
Investment;
Financing and Loans;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Business Model
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Supplement
LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
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Keywords:
Data Science;
Data Analytics;
Decision Trees;
Investment;
Financing and Loans;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-021, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Supplement
LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default...
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Keywords:
Data Analytics;
Data Science;
Investment;
Financing and Loans;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- May 2018
- Article
Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change
By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca
Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing...
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Keywords:
Forecasting Models;
Simulation Methods;
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes;
Geographic Location;
Local Range;
Transition;
Analytics and Data Science;
Measurement and Metrics;
Economic Growth;
Forecasting and Prediction
Glaeser, Edward L., Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca. "Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change." AEA Papers and Proceedings 108 (May 2018): 77–82.
- February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
People Analytics at Teach For America (A)
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former...
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Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (A)." Harvard Business School Case 418-013, February 2018. (Revised December 2020.)
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Stress Testing;
Interest Rates;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Risk Management;
United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)
By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson
Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Policy Implementation;
Empirical Research;
Inspection;
Occupational Safety;
Occupational Health;
Regulation;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Policy;
Operations;
Supply Chain Management;
Safety;
Manufacturing Industry;
Construction Industry;
United States
Toffel, Michael W., Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla, and Matthew S. Johnson. "Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)." Harvard Business School Case 618-019, October 2017. (Revised April 2018.)
- April 2017
- Article
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying...
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Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. "Financing Risk and Innovation." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 901–918.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- June 2015
- Supplement
Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield
This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam...
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- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Discount Rates;
Holding Period Returns;
Fundamental Valuation;
Present Value;
Valuation;
Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Staffing;
Gaming;
Gaming Industry;
Hotel Industry;
Decision Making;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Human Resources;
Selection and Staffing;
Entertainment;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Operations;
Service Delivery;
Service Operations;
Accommodations Industry;
Travel Industry;
Tourism Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- July–August 2013
- Article
A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings
By: Eva Ascarza and Bruce G.S. Hardie
As firms become more customer-centric, concepts such as customer equity come to the fore. Any serious attempt to quantify customer equity requires modeling techniques that can provide accurate multiperiod forecasts of customer behavior. Although a number of researchers...
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Keywords:
Churn;
Retention;
Contractual Settings;
Access Services;
Hidden Markov Models;
RFM;
Latent Variable Models;
Customer Value and Value Chain;
Consumer Behavior
Ascarza, Eva, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings." Marketing Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2013): 570–590.
- May 2013
- Teaching Note
Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation
By: Suraj Srinivasan and Edward J. Riedl
Teaching note for a case of the same title that introduces students to the residual income (also known as the abnormal earnings) valuation model using the firm Coca-Cola. Students are provided with the primary financial statements (through fiscal 2010) and forecast...
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- Fall 2012
- Article
Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence
By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek
We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly...
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Turut, Ozge, and Elie Ofek. "Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 12, no. 3 (Fall 2012).
- June 2012
- Case
Innovating at AT&T: Partnering to Lead the Broadband Revolution
By: Lynda M. Applegate, Phillip Andrews and Kerry Herman
In 2010, the U.S. retail market value for next-generation non-handset wirelessly-enabled devices was just over $1 billion. By 2011 it had grown 1,141% to $13.2 billion and was forecast to reach $24.7 billion in 2015. At the same time, user demand for data was surging...
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Keywords:
Innovation & Entrepreneurship;
Team Leadership;
Emerging Technologies;
Business Models;
Business To Business;
Corporate Vision;
Growth Strategy;
Corporate Culture;
Innovation and Invention;
Corporate Entrepreneurship;
Partners and Partnerships;
Leadership;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Globalized Firms and Management;
Business Model;
Technology Industry;
United States
Applegate, Lynda M., Phillip Andrews, and Kerry Herman. "Innovating at AT&T: Partnering to Lead the Broadband Revolution." Harvard Business School Case 812-124, June 2012.
- 2012
- Working Paper
~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation
Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Cost;
Framework;
Policy;
Taxation;
Analytics and Data Science;
Performance Efficiency;
United States
Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
- September 2011
- Article
Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas
By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Assets;
Cost of Capital;
Financial Institutions;
Financial Instruments;
Corporate Disclosure;
Information;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Value;
United States
Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
- February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
- Supplement
The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data.
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