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All HBS Web
(3,284)
- Faculty Publications (1,073)
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock...
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Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
- May 2006
- Case
Nokia in 2003
By: Paul M. Healy
Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations....
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- May 2006
- Article
Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models
By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
- February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
- Background Note
Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets
Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Growth Management;
Network Effects;
Digital Platforms;
Internet and the Web
Eisenmann, Thomas R. "Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets." Harvard Business School Background Note 806-131, February 2006. (Revised September 2007.)
- February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)
By: Edward J. Riedl
Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top...
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Keywords:
Risk and Uncertainty;
Futures and Commodity Futures;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Chemicals;
Chemical Industry
Riedl, Edward J. "Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)." Harvard Business School Case 106-049, February 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Innovation and Invention;
Product Launch;
Demand and Consumers;
Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- 2006
- Working Paper
On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)
This paper shows why members of an organization often share similar beliefs. I argue that there are two mechanisms. First, when performance depends on making correct decisions, people prefer to work with others who share their beliefs and assumptions, since such... View Details
Van den Steen, Eric J. "On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 4553-05, January 2006. (Available at SSRN.)
- December 2005
- Article
Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior
By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows.
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Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
- August 2005 (Revised September 2006)
- Case
Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music and Math
By: Anita Elberse, Jehoshua Eliashberg and Julian Villanueva
In 2003, Mike McCready, CEO of Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI, was preparing to launch an artificial intelligence tool that could create significant value for music businesses. The technology, referred to as Hit Song Science (HSS), analyzed the mathematical...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Music Entertainment;
Business History;
Leadership;
Marketing Strategy;
Strategic Planning;
Problems and Challenges;
Mathematical Methods;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry
Elberse, Anita, Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Julian Villanueva. "Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music and Math." Harvard Business School Case 506-009, August 2005. (Revised September 2006.) (Spanish version also available.)
- June 2005
- Article
Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai
Keywords:
Currencies;
Exchange Rates;
Purchasing Power Parity;
Real Exchange Rate;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Behavioral Finance;
Investment Return;
Market Transactions;
Performance Expectations;
Personal Characteristics;
Asset Pricing;
Financial Services Industry
Froot, K. A., and T. Ramadorai. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows." Journal of Finance 60, no. 3 (June 2005): 1535–1566. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9101, August 2002 and Harvard Business School Working Paper no. 04-036, December 2003.)
- June 2005
- Article
Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Economy;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Inflation and Deflation
Alfaro, Laura. "Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment." Journal of Development Economics 77, no. 1 (June 2005): 229–249.
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Framework;
Books;
Analytics and Data Science;
Product Launch;
Internet and the Web;
Technology Adoption
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
- April 2005
- Case
Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the...
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Keywords:
Management Teams;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Condition;
Investment;
Financial Services Industry;
Insurance Industry;
United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David Kiron. "Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 105-067, April 2005.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price...
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- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying...
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
- March 2005
- Case
Henkel Iberica (A)
By: Francisco de Asis Martinez-Jerez, V.G. Narayanan and Lisa Brem
In 2002, Esteban Garriga, customer service director at Henkel Iberica, questions whether Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) would help manage retail promotions and limit their impact on the stock-outs and obsolete inventory. Describes the...
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Keywords:
Business Subsidiaries;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Price;
Distribution Channels;
Strategic Planning;
Commercialization;
Valuation;
Rail Industry;
Germany;
Spain
Martinez-Jerez, Francisco de Asis, V.G. Narayanan, and Lisa Brem. "Henkel Iberica (A)." Harvard Business School Case 105-023, March 2005.
- March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
- Background Note
Activity-Based Costing and Capacity
By: Robert S. Kaplan
Discusses the use of budgeted rather than historical data in an activity-based costing (ABC) model and argues for calculating rates using practical capacity, not actual utilization. An ABC model need not be limited to analysis of historical data. When cost driver rates...
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Kaplan, Robert S. "Activity-Based Costing and Capacity." Harvard Business School Background Note 105-059, March 2005. (Revised March 2006.)
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be...
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Keywords:
Limits To Arbitrage;
Event Studies;
Demand Curves;
Portfolio Choice;
Framework;
Demand and Consumers;
Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Assets;
Investment Portfolio;
System Shocks;
Price;
Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Innovation and Invention;
Marketing;
Demand and Consumers;
Mathematical Methods;
Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)