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All HBS Web
(3,277)
- Faculty Publications (1,071)
- 2004
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: M. H. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M. H., and M. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. (Winner of Kulp-Wright Book Award For the book considered to be the most influential text published on the economics of risk management and insurance presented by American Risk and Insurance Association. Paperback published in 2008.)
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be...
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Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
- September 2004 (Revised February 2007)
- Case
Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS
By: Mihir A. Desai, Vincent Dessain and Anders Sjoman
The American Institute for Foreign Studies (AIFS) organizes study abroad programs and cultural exchanges for American students. The firm's revenues are mainly in U.S. dollars, but most of its costs are in eurodollars and British pounds. The company's controllers review...
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Keywords:
Foreign Direct Investment;
Investment Funds;
Financial Strategy;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Revenue;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Currency;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Education Industry;
North and Central America
Desai, Mihir A., Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS." Harvard Business School Case 205-026, September 2004. (Revised February 2007.)
- September 2004
- Article
Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from...
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Keywords:
Economy;
Voting;
Conflict of Interests;
Capital;
Government and Politics;
Wages;
Saving;
Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura. "Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach." Review of International Economics 12, no. 4 (September 2004): 571–590.
- September 2004
- Article
Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows
By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
- September 2004
- Article
Trust in Agency
Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the...
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Keywords:
Trust;
Agency Theory;
Relationships;
Behavior;
Motivation and Incentives;
Contracts;
Business Model;
Emotions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Ethics;
Standards;
Risk and Uncertainty
Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Markets;
Financial Liquidity;
Price;
Trade;
Sales;
Equity;
Information;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Accounting Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
- February 2004
- Case
Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC
By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur
An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory...
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- February 2004 (Revised March 2004)
- Case
Cartwright Lumber Company
By: Thomas R. Piper
The Cartwright Lumber Co. faces a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. A rewritten version of an earlier case.
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Keywords:
Growth Management;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financing and Loans;
Corporate Finance;
Construction Industry;
Forest Products Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Cartwright Lumber Company." Harvard Business School Case 204-126, February 2004. (Revised March 2004.)
- February 2004
- Article
Leader Behaviors and the Work Environment for Creativity: Perceived Leader Support
By: Teresa M. Amabile, Elizabeth A. Schatzel, Giovanni B. Moneta and Steven J. Kramer
This exploratory study investigated leader behaviors related to perceived leader support, encompassing both instrumental and socioemotional support. The study first established that leader support, proposed to be a key feature of the work environment for creativity,...
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Amabile, Teresa M., Elizabeth A. Schatzel, Giovanni B. Moneta, and Steven J. Kramer. "Leader Behaviors and the Work Environment for Creativity: Perceived Leader Support." Leadership Quarterly 15, no. 1 (February 2004): 5–32.
- November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
- Case
Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom
By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company...
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Keywords:
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Crisis;
Non-Renewable Energy;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Corporate Governance;
Risk Management;
Emerging Markets;
State Ownership;
Performance Evaluation;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Valuation;
Energy Industry;
Argentina;
Brazil
Desai, Mihir A., and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho. "Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom." Harvard Business School Case 204-043, November 2003. (Revised March 2004.)
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Investment Return;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
- Case
Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The
By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison
Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future.
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Keywords:
Animal-Based Agribusiness;
Trade;
Globalized Markets and Industries;
Food;
Strategic Planning;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
Goldberg, Ray A., and Kevin M. Allison. "Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The." Harvard Business School Case 904-402, October 2003. (Revised January 2004.)
- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
- June 2003
- Case
Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads
By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Leslie Freeman
Three managing directors at Peabody Simpson had just returned from a firm-wide recruiting event at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Capital Budgeting;
Recruitment;
Reports;
Organizational Design
Lal, Rajiv, Nitin Nohria, and Leslie Freeman. "Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads." Harvard Business School Case 503-112, June 2003.
- May 2003
- Case
Renault-Nissan Alliance, The
By: Michael Y. Yoshino and Perry Fagan
On Wednesday, May 29, 2002, the board of directors of Renault-Nissan BV (RNBV) met for the first time to discuss the state of the alliance between Renault SA and Nissan Motors-two of the world's largest automakers. RNBV was a 50/50 joint venture company established in...
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Keywords:
Joint Ventures;
Global Strategy;
Organizational Culture;
Alliances;
Business or Company Management;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Auto Industry
Yoshino, Michael Y., and Perry Fagan. "Renault-Nissan Alliance, The." Harvard Business School Case 303-023, May 2003.
- May 2003
- Case
Liz Claiborne, Inc.
By: Rajiv Lal, Walter J. Salmon and Edie Prescott
Discusses the business portfolio emphasis of a large multibrand manufacturer and the future of department stores as well as how relationships between manufacturers and key customers can be improved.
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- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
- February 2003 (Revised October 2003)
- Case
Cable Data Systems
By: Paul W. Marshall and Todd H Thedinga
Describes the operating challenges of Cable Data Systems (CDS), a minority-owned cable installation company with a dual mission of maximizing profits and providing employment opportunities to minorities in urban markets. Following the merger of two cable installation...
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Keywords:
Selection and Staffing;
Employment;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Urban Scope;
Cost Management;
Infrastructure;
Labor Unions;
Demand and Consumers;
Demographics;
Media and Broadcasting Industry;
Media and Broadcasting Industry;
Boston
Marshall, Paul W., and Todd H Thedinga. "Cable Data Systems." Harvard Business School Case 803-132, February 2003. (Revised October 2003.)