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All HBS Web
(2,297)
- Faculty Publications (313)
- June 2022 (Revised October 2022)
- Background Note
Digital Commerce and Delivery: Preparing Food and Retail Value Chains for a 50-50 World
By: William R. Kerr, Daniel O'Connor, Paige Boehmcke and Will Ensor
Increasing digitalization of grocery retail and quick commerce reveals insights about managing complex supply chains at scale and shifting revenue streams from product sales to data monetization. How are the roles of retailers changing? What happens if marginal cost...
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Keywords:
Grocery Delivery;
Grocery;
Digitalization;
Fulfillment;
Delivery;
Supply Chain;
Disruption;
Food;
Supply Chain Management;
Market Design;
Trends;
Value Creation;
Goods and Commodities;
Customer Value and Value Chain;
Digital Transformation;
Retail Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
United States;
China
Kerr, William R., Daniel O'Connor, Paige Boehmcke, and Will Ensor. "Digital Commerce and Delivery: Preparing Food and Retail Value Chains for a 50-50 World." Harvard Business School Background Note 822-108, June 2022. (Revised October 2022.)
- 2022
- Article
Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Chirag Agarwal, Shalmali Joshi, Sohini Upadhyay and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of counterfactual explanations, a...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning Models;
Counterfactual Explanations;
Adversarial Examples;
Mathematical Methods
Pawelczyk, Martin, Chirag Agarwal, Shalmali Joshi, Sohini Upadhyay, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 25th (2022).
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Health Pandemics;
Mathematical Methods;
Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- March 2022 (Revised February 2023)
- Case
Pakistan Rising: Bazaar's Growth Story (A)
By: Paul A. Gompers and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in September 2021 as Hamza Jawaid and Saad Jangda, co-founders of Bazaar technologies (Bazaar), the Pakistani high growth B2B e-commerce marketplace, are contemplating whether the year-and-a half old startup should also venture into offering financing to...
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Keywords:
B2B;
Business Model;
Emerging Markets;
For-Profit Firms;
Strategy;
Digital Platforms;
Information Technology;
Value Creation;
Globalization;
Competition;
Expansion;
Profit;
Resource Allocation;
Diversification;
Corporate Strategy;
Pakistan
Gompers, Paul A., and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Pakistan Rising: Bazaar's Growth Story (A)." Harvard Business School Case 822-098, March 2022. (Revised February 2023.)
- March 2022
- Article
Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Partial Interference;
Synthetic Controls;
Bayesian Structural Time Series;
Mathematical Methods
Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective
By: Satyapriya Krishna, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As various post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to develop a deeper understanding of if and when the explanations output by these methods disagree with each other, and how...
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Krishna, Satyapriya, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective." Working Paper, 2022.
- February 2022
- Case
NFX Capital and Moov Technologies
By: Scott Duke Kominers and Nicole Tempest Keller
In July 2019, James Currier, a general partner at San Francisco-based NFX Ventures, was considering a seed stage investment of $1.5 million in Moov Technologies, a B2B marketplace for used industrial equipment. NFX was a venture capital firm focused on seed-stage...
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Keywords:
Venture Capital;
Network Effects;
Marketplace Matching;
Digital Platforms;
Market Design;
Applications and Software;
Semiconductor Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
San Francisco
Kominers, Scott Duke, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "NFX Capital and Moov Technologies." Harvard Business School Case 822-045, February 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by...
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Keywords:
Prescription Drugs;
Coupons;
Impact;
Health Care and Treatment;
Markets;
Price;
Spending;
Pharmaceutical Industry;
United States
Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29735, February 2022.
- January 2022 (Revised August 2022)
- Case
Hello Heart: The Next Generation of Chronic Disease Management Apps
By: Ariel D. Stern and Danielle Golan
Hello Heart, a hypertension management app debated whether to go deep and cover other heart conditions, or to expand its solution to other chronic conditions.
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Keywords:
Health;
Health Care and Treatment;
Information Technology;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
Analysis;
Business Startups;
Transition;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Customer Satisfaction;
Decision Making;
Demographics;
Design;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
Technological Innovation;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Product Launch;
Product Design;
Product Development;
Business Strategy;
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Customization and Personalization;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Business Model;
Strategy;
Applications and Software;
Health Industry;
Technology Industry;
Israel;
United States
Stern, Ariel D., and Danielle Golan. "Hello Heart: The Next Generation of Chronic Disease Management Apps." Harvard Business School Case 622-061, January 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
- January 2022
- Case
Somatus: Value-Based Kidney Care (A)
By: Ariel D. Stern, Robert S. Huckman and Sarah Mehta
When Dr. Ikenna Okezie founded Somatus, a value-based kidney care provider, his goal had been nothing short of transforming kidney care delivery in the United States. Rather than relying on dialysis, a costly and intensive treatment for late-stage kidney disease, the...
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Keywords:
Business Startups;
Disruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Health;
Health Care and Treatment;
Health Disorders;
Medical Specialties;
Innovation and Invention;
Disruptive Innovation;
Management;
Strategy;
Business Strategy;
Value;
Value Creation;
Health Industry;
United States;
Virginia
Stern, Ariel D., Robert S. Huckman, and Sarah Mehta. "Somatus: Value-Based Kidney Care (A)." Harvard Business School Case 622-009, January 2022.
- Winter 2022
- Article
Courageous Leadership: Paul Polman’s Insights for the Next Generation of Business Managers
By: John Pontillo, Celia Bravard and Andrew J. Hoffman
In 2021, John Pontillo, Celia Bravard, and Andrew Hoffman conducted a series of interviews with Paul Polman, former CEO of Unilever. They discussed how business managers and leaders can build a new model of capitalism that serves the needs of society. Here’s what they...
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Pontillo, John, Celia Bravard, and Andrew J. Hoffman. "Courageous Leadership: Paul Polman’s Insights for the Next Generation of Business Managers." Management and Business Review (Winter 2022): 11–20.
- Article
Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content
By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III and Komminist Weldemariam
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved unprecedented success in photo-realistic image synthesis from low-dimensional random noise. The ability to synthesize high-quality content at a large scale brings potential risks as the generated samples may...
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Cintas, Celia, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III, and Komminist Weldemariam. "Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content." Pattern Recognition Letters 153 (January 2022): 207–213.
- 2022
- Working Paper
TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations
By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet they have become more complex and harder to understand. To address this issue, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use explainability...
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Slack, Dylan, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Sameer Singh. "TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations." Working Paper, 2022.
- Article
Adaptive Machine Unlearning
By: Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi and Chris Waites
Data deletion algorithms aim to remove the influence of deleted data points from trained models at a cheaper computational cost than fully retraining those models. However, for sequences of deletions, most prior work in the non-convex setting gives valid guarantees...
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Gupta, Varun, Christopher Jung, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi, and Chris Waites. "Adaptive Machine Unlearning." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- Article
Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
Counterfactual explanations are useful for both generating recourse and auditing fairness between groups. We seek to understand whether adversaries can manipulate counterfactual explanations in an algorithmic recourse setting: if counterfactual explanations indicate...
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Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Sameer Singh. "Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...
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Keywords:
Black Box Explanations;
Bayesian Modeling;
Decision Making;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- 2021
- Article
ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation
By: Chuang Gan, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott and Daniel L.K. Yamins
We introduce ThreeDWorld (TDW), a platform for interactive multi-modal physical simulation. TDW enables simulation of high-fidelity sensory data and physical interactions between mobile agents and objects in rich 3D environments. Unique properties include: real-time...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Platform;
Interactive Physical Simulation;
Virtual Environment;
Multi-modal;
AI and Machine Learning
Gan, Chuang, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott, and Daniel L.K. Yamins. "ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation." Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), Datasets and Benchmarks Track 35th (2021).
- November 2021
- Article
Ratings, Reviews, and the Marketing of New Products
By: Itay P. Fainmesser, Dominique Olié Lauga and Elie Ofek
We study how user-generated content (UGC) about new products impacts a firm's advertising and pricing decisions and the effect on profits and market dynamics. We construct a two-period model where consumers value quality and are heterogeneous in their taste for the new...
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Keywords:
Online Reviews;
Product Ratings;
Social Networks;
Word Of Mouth;
Pricing;
User-generated Content;
Advertising;
Product Marketing;
Price;
Consumer Behavior;
Product Positioning;
Social Media
Fainmesser, Itay P., Dominique Olié Lauga, and Elie Ofek. "Ratings, Reviews, and the Marketing of New Products." Management Science 67, no. 11 (November 2021): 7023–7045.
- October 2021 (Revised December 2021)
- Case
Customer-Centric Design with Artificial Intelligence: Commonwealth Bank
By: Karim R. Lakhani, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jin Hyun Paik and Steven Randazzo
As Commonwealth Bank (CommBank) CEO Matt Comyn delivered the full financial year results in August 2021 over videoconference, it took less than two minutes for him to make his first mention of the organization's Customer Engagement Engine (CEE), the AI-driven customer...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Customer-centricity;
Banks and Banking;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Technological Innovation;
Transformation;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Performance;
AI and Machine Learning;
Financial Services Industry;
Australia
Lakhani, Karim R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jin Hyun Paik, and Steven Randazzo. "Customer-Centric Design with Artificial Intelligence: Commonwealth Bank." Harvard Business School Case 622-065, October 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
- October 2021 (Revised September 2022)
- Case
GoPro: Becoming a Subscription Hero
By: Elie Ofek, Marco Bertini and Nicole Tempest Keller
In 2021, Nick Woodman, founder and CEO of GoPro, was reviewing the company’s subscription offering, considering whether to extend it beyond benefits that were directly related to the company’s iconic camera. Founded in 2002, GoPro had gained renown for its innovative...
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Keywords:
Subscription Model;
Pricing;
Lifestyle Brands;
Value Proposition;
Business Model;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Marketing Strategy;
Consumer Products Industry;
California
Ofek, Elie, Marco Bertini, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "GoPro: Becoming a Subscription Hero." Harvard Business School Case 522-022, October 2021. (Revised September 2022.)