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All HBS Web
(1,258)
- Faculty Publications (163)
- 2019
- Working Paper
Do Banks Have an Edge?
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Overall, no! We show that the level and time series variation in cash flows for most bank activities are well matched by capital market portfolios with similar interest rate and credit risk to what banks report to hold. Ignoring operating expenses, bank loans earn high...
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Keywords:
Banks;
Market Efficiency;
Bank Capital;
Bank Debt;
CAPM;
Banking;
Bank Deposits;
Bank Funding Advantage;
Leverage;
Maturity Transformation;
Replicating Portfolio;
Efficiency;
Banks and Banking;
Capital Markets;
Performance Evaluation;
Performance Efficiency;
Banking Industry;
United States
Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Do Banks Have an Edge?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-060, January 2018. (Revised October 2019.)
- December 2017
- Response
Reply: Do Powerful Politicians Really Cause Corporate Downsizing?
By: Lauren Cohen, Joshua D. Coval and Christopher J. Malloy
While we commend the initiative of Snyder and Welch (2017), we lay out in this short reply why we remain highly confident in our results and our interpretation thereof. We welcome authors to continue to explore the data for themselves and look forward to the new...
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Keywords:
Spending;
Private Sector;
Taxation;
Interest Rates;
Business and Government Relations;
Investment;
Employment;
Power and Influence
Cohen, Lauren, Joshua D. Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Reply: Do Powerful Politicians Really Cause Corporate Downsizing?" Journal of Political Economy 125, no. 6 (December 2017): 2232–2237.
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Stress Testing;
Interest Rates;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Risk Management;
United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- 2017
- Working Paper
The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets
By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the...
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Keywords:
Small Business;
Financing and Loans;
Banks and Banking;
System Shocks;
Credit;
Labor;
United States
Chen, Brian S., Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23843, September 2017.
- August 2017 (Revised February 2024)
- Teaching Note
Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal
By: Boris Vallee, Patrick Augustin and Philippe Rich
This case explores a complex swap transaction implemented by Metro do Porto in 2007. It represents an opportunity to study fixed income derivative instruments, such as plain-vanilla swaps and structured swaps, as well as understand the opportunities and challenges of...
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- August 2017 (Revised September 2023)
- Case
Altoona State Investment Board & Bain Capital Fund XI
By: Josh Lerner and Ted Berk
Considers the decision faced by state pension fund manager Rod Calhoun as he decides whether to invest $200 million in Bain Capital's eleventh global buyout fund: Bain Capital Fund XI. For the fund, Bain was offering its limited partners a choice among three different...
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Keywords:
Equity Method;
Leveraged Buyout;
Management Buyout;
Capital;
Design;
Entrepreneurship;
Finance;
Leveraged Buyouts;
Management;
Private Equity;
Venture Capital;
Banking Industry;
Massachusetts
Lerner, Josh, and Ted Berk. "Altoona State Investment Board & Bain Capital Fund XI." Harvard Business School Case 218-022, August 2017. (Revised September 2023.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- April 2017
- Case
China Construction Bank's Transformation
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Nancy Hua Dai
On March 29, 2017, Wang Hongzhang, Chairman of China Construction Bank, was considering the next steps in the bank’s transformation. In the challenging backdrop of economic slowdown, deep structure adjustment, interest rate liberalization, entry of financial players...
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- January 2017
- Case
Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal
By: Boris Vallee, Patrick Augustin and Philippe Rich
This case explores a complex swap transaction implemented by Metro do Porto in 2007. It represents an opportunity to study fixed income derivative instruments, such as plain-vanilla swaps and structured swaps, as well as understand the opportunities and challenges of...
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Keywords:
Swaps;
Public Finance;
Structured Finance;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Public Sector;
Transportation Industry;
Rail Industry;
Portugal
Vallee, Boris, Patrick Augustin, and Philippe Rich. "Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal." Harvard Business School Case 217-050, January 2017.
- November 2016 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Deutsche Bank: Structured Retail Products
By: Boris Vallée and Jérôme Lenhardt
Describes how Deutsche Bank, a leading European bank, is deciding whether or not to launch a new structured retail product in Germany: an autocallable note. Will this product find a market and how does it fit into the bank’s product portfolio? The case investigates how...
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Keywords:
Structured Products;
Structured Retail Products;
Germany;
Auto Callable Note;
Financial Product;
Financial Product Development;
Financial Product Marketing;
Financial Product Launch;
Financial Product Positioning;
Finance;
Assets;
Asset Pricing;
Asset Management;
Capital Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Banks and Banking;
Commercial Banking;
Financial Instruments;
Annuities;
Bonds;
Stocks;
Financial Management;
Financial Markets;
Financial Strategy;
Interest Rates;
Investment
Vallée, Boris, and Jérôme Lenhardt. "Deutsche Bank: Structured Retail Products." Harvard Business School Case 217-037, November 2016. (Revised March 2018.)
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a...
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Keywords:
Inflation Expectations;
Bayesian Estimation;
Inflation and Deflation;
Information;
Household;
Behavior;
Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- February 2016
- Case
BancoSol and Microfinance in Bolivia
By: Rajiv Lal and Annelena Lobb
BancoSol, a microfinance bank headquartered in La Paz, Bolivia, was forced to adjust its lending strategy and business model because of a regulatory change—60% of the bank's lending portfolio would have to move to the productive sector of the Bolivian economy by 2018,...
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Keywords:
Microfinance;
Banks and Banking;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Business Model;
Strategy;
South America;
Bolivia
Lal, Rajiv, and Annelena Lobb. "BancoSol and Microfinance in Bolivia." Harvard Business School Case 516-005, February 2016.
- February 2016 (Revised July 2017)
- Case
Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve
By: David Moss and Marc Campasano
“From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies, to the current economic crisis caused by the housing bubble, every economic downturn suffered by this country over the past century can be traced to Federal Reserve policy.” Ron Paul, a Republican from...
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Keywords:
Government Legislation;
Central Banking;
Policy;
Financial Crisis;
Business and Government Relations;
Banking Industry;
Public Administration Industry;
United States
Moss, David, and Marc Campasano. "Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve." Harvard Business School Case 716-040, February 2016. (Revised July 2017.)
- March 2015
- Article
Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the...
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Hanson, Samuel G., and Jeremy C. Stein. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 3 (March 2015): 429–448.
- March–April 2015
- Article
The Almighty Ruble
By: Debora L. Spar
At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the...
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Spar, Debora L. "The Almighty Ruble." Foreign Policy 211 (March–April 2015).
- August 2014
- Article
Mortgage Convexity
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS...
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Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- October 2013
- Article
With a Little Help from My (Random) Friends: Success and Failure in Post-Business School Entrepreneurship
By: Josh Lerner and Ulrike Malmendier
To what extent do peers affect our occupational choices? This question has been of particular interest in the context of entrepreneurship and policies to create a favorable environment for entry. Such influences, however, are hard to identify empirically. We exploit...
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Lerner, Josh, and Ulrike Malmendier. "With a Little Help from My (Random) Friends: Success and Failure in Post-Business School Entrepreneurship." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 10 (October 2013): 2411–2452. (Earlier versions distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 16918 and Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 11-108.)
- August 2013 (Revised November 2015)
- Case
Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?
By: Luis M. Viceira and Emily A. Chien
In November 2012, Prudential Financial and General Motors closed on a $25.1B pension risk transfer (PRT) transaction, the largest of its kind to date by an order of magnitude both in the U.S. market and globally. In exchange for an in-kind transfer of $25.1B in... View Details
Keywords:
Risk Management;
Asset Management;
Insurance;
Retirement;
Financial Services Industry;
Insurance Industry
Viceira, Luis M., and Emily A. Chien. "Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?" Harvard Business School Case 213-126, August 2013. (Revised November 2015.)
- 2013
- Dissertation
Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers...
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- January 2013 (Revised October 2014)
- Case
Barclays and the LIBOR Scandal
By: Clayton S. Rose and Aldo Sesia
In June of 2012, Barclays plc admitted that it had manipulated LIBOR—a benchmark interest rate that was fundamental to the operation of international financial markets and that was the basis for trillions of dollars of financial transactions. Between 2005 and 2009...
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Keywords:
Financial Systems;
Financial Services;
Corruption;
Regulation;
General Management;
Management;
Leadership;
Economic Systems;
Crime and Corruption;
Ethics;
Culture;
Banking Industry;
Financial Services Industry;
United Kingdom
Rose, Clayton S., and Aldo Sesia. "Barclays and the LIBOR Scandal." Harvard Business School Case 313-075, January 2013. (Revised October 2014.)