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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (213)
- December 2005
- Article
Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior
By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Framework;
Books;
Analytics and Data Science;
Product Launch;
Internet and the Web;
Technology Adoption
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Innovation and Invention;
Marketing;
Demand and Consumers;
Mathematical Methods;
Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- September 2004
- Article
Trust in Agency
Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the...
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Keywords:
Trust;
Agency Theory;
Relationships;
Behavior;
Motivation and Incentives;
Contracts;
Business Model;
Emotions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Ethics;
Standards;
Risk and Uncertainty
Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Markets;
Financial Liquidity;
Price;
Trade;
Sales;
Equity;
Information;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques;
Accounting Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
- October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
- Case
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts
By: Paul M. Healy
Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street.
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Keywords:
Business Growth and Maturation;
Business Model;
Financial Statements;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Reporting;
Performance Evaluation;
Business Strategy;
Food and Beverage Industry;
New York (city, NY)
Healy, Paul M. "Krispy Kreme Doughnuts." Harvard Business School Case 103-018, October 2002. (Revised January 2013.)
- July– September 2002
- Article
Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
- March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
- Case
Satellite Radio
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown
In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted...
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Keywords:
Growth and Development Strategy;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Problems and Challenges;
Network Effects;
Partners and Partnerships;
Information Technology;
Business Model;
Investment Return;
Auto Industry;
Media and Broadcasting Industry;
United States
Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Alastair Brown. "Satellite Radio." Harvard Business School Case 802-175, March 2002. (Revised November 2003.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational...
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Keywords:
Price;
Financial Liquidity;
Trade;
Valuation;
Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Equity;
Stock Shares;
Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 2001
- Working Paper
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that...
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
- January 2001
- Case
Valuing Project Achieve
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Project Achieve is a start-up providing information management solutions for schools. Its founders see a need for software both to manage the volumes of information necessary to administer a school and to connect parents, teachers, and students in a more effective way....
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Keywords:
Business Startups;
Valuation;
Venture Capital;
Cost of Capital;
Cash Flow;
Forecasting and Prediction
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Valuing Project Achieve." Harvard Business School Case 201-080, January 2001.
- November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
- Case
Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.
By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and...
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Keywords:
Financial Management;
Financial Strategy;
Salesforce Management;
Marketing Strategy;
Accrual Accounting;
Business Cycles;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Insurance;
Business Growth and Maturation;
Insurance Industry
Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
- 1998
- Article
Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance
By: J. Ruscio, D. M. Whitney and T. M. Amabile
This study set out to identify specific task behaviors that predict observable product creativity in three domains and to identify which of those behaviors mediate the well-established link between intrinsic motivation and creativity. One-hundred fifty-one...
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Ruscio, J., D. M. Whitney, and T. M. Amabile. "Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance." Creativity Research Journal 11, no. 3 (1998): 243–263.
- 1996
- Article
Evidence to Support the Componential Model of Creativity: Secondary Analyses of Three Studies
By: R. Conti, H. Coon and T. M. Amabile
Amabile's (1983a, 1983b, 1988) componential model of creativity predicts that three major components contribute to creativity: skills specific to the task domain, general (cross-domain) creativity-relevant skills, and task motivation. If all three components actually...
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Conti, R., H. Coon, and T. M. Amabile. "Evidence to Support the Componential Model of Creativity: Secondary Analyses of Three Studies." Creativity Research Journal 9, no. 4 (1996): 385–389.
- 1995
- Chapter
Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability
By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale
White, S. B., M. H. Bazerman, and M. A. Neale. "Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability." In Research on Negotiation in Organizations, edited by R. J. Bies, R. Lewicki, and B. Sheppard. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1995.
- April 1993 (Revised June 1994)
- Supplement
MathSoft, Inc. (B)
Describes the president's decision regarding MathSoft's marketing channels and communications methods, and the company's sales results during the next five quarters. The (A) case market response model is also updated.
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Keywords:
Communication Technology;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Curriculum and Courses;
Learning;
Knowledge Sharing;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Marketing Channels;
Education Industry
Rangan, V. Kasturi. "MathSoft, Inc. (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 593-095, April 1993. (Revised June 1994.)
- Article
Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature
By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao
This article surveys the literature that has attempted to measure competition's effects on defense procurement. The focus is on conceptual underpinnings of models rather than technical aspects of estimation procedures. While providing valuable insight, the models are...
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Keywords:
Performance Effectiveness;
Competition;
Surveys;
Value;
Economics;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Programs;
Power and Influence;
Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
Anton, James J., and Dennis A. Yao. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 9, no. 1 (Winter 1990): 60–79. (Harvard users click here for full text.)
- July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
- Background Note
A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"
By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis
Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
Investment;
Risk Management;
Valuation
Sahlman, William A., and Daniel R Scherlis. A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method". Harvard Business School Background Note 288-006, July 1987. (Revised October 2009.)
- July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
- Background Note
Note on Comparative Advantage
By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of...
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Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)