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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (213)
- 9 Dec 2016
- Conference Presentation
Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Eric Horvitz
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana, and Eric Horvitz. "Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models." Paper presented at the 30th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), Workshop on Reliable Machine Learning in the Wild, Barcelona, Spain, December 9, 2016.
- October 2016 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
DataXu: Selling Ad Tech
By: Frank V. Cespedes, John Deighton, Lisa Cox and Olivia Hull
DataXu served marketers by buying digital advertising for brands using its demand-side platform. It sought a way to build a more predictable revenue stream in the very transactional media marketplace, and hoped that two new marketing analytics products would give it a...
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Keywords:
Sales Management;
Pricing;
Programmatic Ad Buying;
"Marketing Analytics";
Advertising Technology;
Sales;
Digital Marketing;
Marketing Strategy;
Advertising Campaigns;
Product Launch;
Product Positioning;
Media;
Technology Industry;
Advertising Industry;
Boston;
Massachusetts
Cespedes, Frank V., John Deighton, Lisa Cox, and Olivia Hull. "DataXu: Selling Ad Tech." Harvard Business School Case 817-012, October 2016. (Revised April 2018.)
- July 2016
- Article
Taxation, Corruption, and Growth
By: Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé and William R. Kerr
We build an endogenous growth model to analyze the relationships between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. Entrepreneurs lie at the center of the model and face disincentive effects from taxation but acquire positive benefits from public infrastructure....
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Keywords:
Endogenous Growth;
Public Goods;
Corruption;
Crime and Corruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Taxation;
Economic Growth
Aghion, Philippe, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé, and William R. Kerr. "Taxation, Corruption, and Growth." Special Issue on The Economics of Entrepreneurship. European Economic Review 86 (July 2016): 24–51.
- June 2016
- Teaching Note
HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI
By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh
HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the...
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- 2017
- Working Paper
Management as a Technology?
By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain firm and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country...
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Keywords:
Management Practices;
Productivity;
Competition;
Management Practices and Processes;
Performance Productivity
Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Management as a Technology?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-133, June 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
- Article
Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy
By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to...
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Keywords:
User-generated Content;
Operations;
Tournaments;
Policy-making;
Machine Learning;
Online Platforms;
Analytics and Data Science;
Mathematical Methods;
City;
Infrastructure;
Business Processes;
Government and Politics
Glaeser, Edward, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106, no. 5 (May 2016): 114–118.
- Article
Third-party Punishment as a Costly Signal of Trustworthiness
By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Paul Bloom and David G. Rand
Third-party punishment (TPP), in which unaffected observers punish selfishness, promotes cooperation by deterring defection. But why should individuals choose to bear the costs of punishing? We present a game theoretic model of TPP as a costly signal of...
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Jordan, Jillian J., Moshe Hoffman, Paul Bloom, and David G. Rand. "Third-party Punishment as a Costly Signal of Trustworthiness." Nature 530, no. 7591 (2016): 473–476.
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross...
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Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- November 2015
- Article
Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery
By: Bryan M. Burt, Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki and John G. Byrne
OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that increased post-graduate surgical experience correlates with improved operative efficiency and long-term survival in standard cardiac surgery procedures.
METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively collected retrospective database,... View Details
METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively collected retrospective database,... View Details
Keywords:
Service Delivery;
Value;
Health Care and Treatment;
Experience and Expertise;
Health Industry
Burt, Bryan M., Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki, and John G. Byrne. "Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery." Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 150, no. 5 (November 2015): 1061–1067.
- October 2015
- Article
Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes
By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers
We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions...
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Keywords:
Agglomeration;
Clusters;
Industrial Organization;
Silicon Valley;
Technology Flows;
Patents;
Networks;
Information Technology;
Industry Clusters;
Entrepreneurship;
California
Kerr, William R., and Scott Duke Kominers. "Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes." Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 4 (October 2015): 877–899.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Blinded by Experience: Prior Experience, Negative News and Belief Updating
By: Bradley R. Staats, Diwas S. KC and Francesca Gino
Traditional models of operations management involve dynamic decision-making assuming optimal (Bayesian) updating. However, behavioral theory suggests that individuals exhibit bias in their beliefs and decisions. We conduct both a field study and two laboratory studies...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Operations;
Egocentric Bias;
Experience;
Healthcare Operations;
Prejudice and Bias;
Behavior;
Operations;
Decision Making;
Health Care and Treatment
Staats, Bradley R., Diwas S. KC, and Francesca Gino. "Blinded by Experience: Prior Experience, Negative News and Belief Updating." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-015, August 2015.
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Discount Rates;
Holding Period Returns;
Fundamental Valuation;
Present Value;
Valuation;
Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- April 2015
- Case
Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics
By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez
In 2014, Dr. Michael Dulin, chief clinical officer for analytics and outcomes research and head of the Dickson Advanced Analytics (DA2) group at Carolinas HealthCare System (CHS), successfully unified all analytics talent and resources into one group over a three year...
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Keywords:
Consumer Segmentation;
Big Data;
Management Information Systems;
Hospital Management;
Health Care and Treatment;
Marketing;
Segmentation;
Analytics and Data Science;
Information Management;
Information Technology;
Health;
Health Industry;
United States
Quelch, John A., and Margaret L. Rodriguez. "Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics." Harvard Business School Case 515-060, April 2015.
- April 2015
- Article
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System
By: Adi Sunderam
Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money...
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Sunderam, Adi. "Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System." Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 4 (April 2015): 939–977.
- December 2014
- Case
Groupon: A New CEO Takes Charge
By: Lynda M. Applegate and Arnold B. Peinado
On August 7, 2013, Eric Lefkofsky, the chairman and largest shareholder of Groupon was named CEO, replacing founder Andrew Mason, who had run the company since its inception in 2009. When Groupon had its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2011, the company's...
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- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little...
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Keywords:
Forecasting;
Staffing;
Gaming;
Gaming Industry;
Hotel Industry;
Decision Making;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Human Resources;
Selection and Staffing;
Entertainment;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Operations;
Service Delivery;
Service Operations;
Accommodations Industry;
Travel Industry;
Tourism Industry;
Food and Beverage Industry;
Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- Article
Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967–2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes
By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino
This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household...
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Keywords:
Inequality;
Land Reform;
Household Division;
Land Markets;
Equality and Inequality;
Residency;
Property;
Household;
West Bengal
Bardhan, Pranab, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee, and Francisco Pino. "Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967–2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes." Journal of Development Economics 110 (September 2014): 171–190.
- Article
Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment
By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein
We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may...
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Hanna, Rema, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 3 (August 2014): 1311–1353. (Online Appendix.)
- August 2014
- Article
Mortgage Convexity
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS...
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Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- April 2014
- Article
The Emergence of 'Us and Them' in 80 Lines of Code: Modeling Group Genesis in Homogeneous Populations
By: Kurt Gray, David G. Rand, Eyal Ert, Kevin Lewis, Steve Hershman and Michael I. Norton
Psychological explanations of group genesis often require population heterogeneity in identity or other characteristics, whether deep (e.g., religion) or superficial (e.g., eye color). We use game-theoretical agent-based models to explore group genesis in homogeneous...
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Keywords:
Groups and Teams
Gray, Kurt, David G. Rand, Eyal Ert, Kevin Lewis, Steve Hershman, and Michael I. Norton. "The Emergence of 'Us and Them' in 80 Lines of Code: Modeling Group Genesis in Homogeneous Populations." Psychological Science 25, no. 4 (April 2014): 982–990.