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- Faculty Publications (142)
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- All HBS Web (573)
- Faculty Publications (142)
- 26 Nov 2019
- News
Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time
turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not predict lower View Details
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on...
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Keywords:
Bonds;
Volatility;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Interest Rates;
Inflation and Deflation;
Investment Return;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Cash Flow;
Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- 14 Oct 2021
- In Practice
Reunited and It Feels (Not) So Good: Tips for Managing a Rocky Return
COVID-19 variants snuffed out the brief period of vaccination-injected optimism earlier this year, as childcare and school disruptions lingered. Despite such resistance and health concerns, some employees have joyfully returned to their...
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Keywords:
by Kristen Senz
- 21 Oct 2015
- Research & Ideas
How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good
other once unlikely, now successful startups (LinkedIn similarly got more than 20 rejections back in 2003) seem to beg: How do you tell a good idea from a bad one? “With startups, especially high-growth startups, it’s extremely hard to View Details
- 2003
- Article
Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns
By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This...
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Clement, Michael B., Richard Frankel, and Jeffrey Miller. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns." Journal of Accounting Research 41, no. 4 (2003): 653–679.
- 15 Apr 2002
- Research & Ideas
In the Virtual Dressing Room Returns Are A Real Problem
brands, styles, and sizes. Still others are using two- or three-dimensional models to help consumers predict product fit. A firm called TheRightSize recently announced technology called "The Rosetta Stone of Fit" to reduce the...
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- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings...
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Keywords:
Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Performance Evaluation;
Knowledge Use and Leverage;
Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- April 2010
- Case
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several...
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Keywords:
Return On Investment;
Forecasting;
Pricing Policies;
Demand Planning;
Marketing Strategy;
Price;
Consumer Behavior;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Product Launch;
Planning;
Brands and Branding;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-183, April 2010.
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Teaching Note to 4183
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- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- Article
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Financial Markets;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Valuation;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Volatility;
Price;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Behavioral Finance
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
- March 2024
- Article
The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices
By: Jeremiah Green, John R. M. Hand and Anywhere Sikochi
We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of U.S. and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to...
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Keywords:
Analysts;
Target Prices;
Mispricing;
Cost Of Equity;
Valuation;
Price;
Cost;
Analysis;
Theory
Green, Jeremiah, John R. M. Hand, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices." Review of Accounting Studies 29, no. 1 (March 2024): 889–915.
The Link Between Bonds and Individual Stocks
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be...
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Keywords:
Limits To Arbitrage;
Event Studies;
Demand Curves;
Portfolio Choice;
Framework;
Demand and Consumers;
Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Assets;
Investment Portfolio;
System Shocks;
Price;
Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- 07 Jun 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted...
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Keywords:
Price;
Investment Return;
AI and Machine Learning;
Valuation;
Cash Flow;
Forecasting and Prediction
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
- May 2012
- Article
Complicated Firms
By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou
We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Information;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Complexity;
Mathematical Methods
Cohen, Lauren, and Dong Lou. "Complicated Firms." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012). (Winner of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Anniversary Best Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Istanbul Stock Exchange. Winner of Center for Research in Security Prices Forum. Best Paper Prize presented by University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Winner of Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Academic Grant presented by Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Winner of Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing presented by PanAgora Asset Management, Inc.)
- 23 Aug 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
Keywords:
by Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson