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Show Results For
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All HBS Web
(750)
- News (158)
- Research (542)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (204)
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue...
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- August 2006
- Article
Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Return;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Motivation and Incentives;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Volatility
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
- October 2002
- Article
Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina
We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting...
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Diether, Karl B., Christopher J. Malloy, and Anna Scherbina. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 57, no. 5 (October 2002): 2113–2141.
- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
- 09 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
- Research Summary
The NYSE Trading Floor and Spatial Dependence in Stock Returns
The floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is organized by physical posts. Each post has at most thirty panels, and each panel tracks up to thirty stocks. I demonstrate that there is spatial dependence in return correlations. Specifically, returns for...
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- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Excess Comovement of Stock Returns
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important...
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Keywords:
Legislator Incentives;
Voting;
Return Predictability;
Lobbying;
Motivation and Incentives;
Government Legislation;
Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- 2016
- Working Paper
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking...
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Keywords:
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Business Earnings;
Banks and Banking;
Risk and Uncertainty
Scharfstein, David S., and Antonio Falato. "The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22689, September 2016.
- 28 Feb 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
- October 2000
- Article
The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has...
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Keywords:
Equity;
Borrowing and Debt;
Stocks;
Markets;
Debt Securities;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Accounting Industry;
United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 55, no. 5 (October 2000): 2219–57.
- February 1983
- Article
Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns
By: K. French, G. W. Schwert and R. S. Ruback
French, K., G. W. Schwert, and R. S. Ruback. "Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns." Journal of Political Economy 91, no. 1 (February 1983): 70–96.
- March 2004 (Revised May 2014)
- Supplement
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
Spreadsheet to (9-204-141). Download only.
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- 2003
- Article
Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns
By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This...
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Clement, Michael B., Richard Frankel, and Jeffrey Miller. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns." Journal of Accounting Research 41, no. 4 (2003): 653–679.
- November 1981
- Article
Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns
By: K. French, G. W. Schwert and R. S. Ruback
French, K., G. W. Schwert, and R. S. Ruback. "Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns." Seminar on the Analysis of Security Prices, Proceedings 5, no. 2 (November 1981): 1–36.
- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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Keywords:
Uncertainty;
Policy Uncertainty;
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Volatility;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Policy;
Newspapers
Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...
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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
- January–February 1976
- Article
Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns are Discontinuous
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns are Discontinuous." Journal of Financial Economics 3 (January–February 1976): 125–144. (Chapter 9 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...
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Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)