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- July 2022
- Article
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level...
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Keywords:
Employment Risk;
Consumption;
Employment;
Risk and Uncertainty;
System Shocks;
Insurance;
Household;
Spending
- April 2022
- Article
AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care
By: Ariel Dora Stern, Avi Goldfarb and Timo Minssen
Despite enthusiasm about the potential to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to medicine and health care delivery, adoption remains tepid, even for the most compelling technologies. In this article, the authors focus on one set of challenges to AI adoption: those...
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- Article
Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps
By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported...
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- February 2022
- Case
Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff
By: Navid Mojir, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
Lilium is a German company focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) that can be used to offer air taxi services. The company went public in September 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal, raising more than...
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Keywords:
SPACs;
Business Model;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Green Technology;
Capital Markets;
Venture Capital;
Initial Public Offering;
Rural Scope;
Urban Scope;
City;
Disruptive Innovation;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Technological Innovation;
Demand and Consumers;
Market Timing;
Industry Growth;
Infrastructure;
Logistics;
Product Design;
Product Development;
Production;
Service Delivery;
Service Operations;
Strategic Planning;
Partners and Partnerships;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Urban Development;
Sustainable Cities;
Business Strategy;
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Air Transportation;
Aerospace Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
Green Technology Industry;
Transportation Industry;
Travel Industry;
Germany;
Munich;
Brazil;
United States;
Florida
- February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
- Case
BUA Group
By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal
BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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- January 2022
- Article
Rejections Make the Heart Grow Fonder: The Benefits of Articulating Risks When Declining Social Invitations
By: Ashley Whillans, Anne Wilson and Tobias Schlager (Shared Authorship)
Across six studies (N=3,591), we explore the interpersonal consequences of COVID-19 risk communication when rejecting social invitations. In Study 1, consumers underestimate the benefits and overestimate the social costs of explicitly rejecting social invitations for...
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- December 2021
- Case
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape
By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed
In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on...
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- December 2021
- Article
Auctioneers Sometimes Prefer Entry Fees to Extra Bidders
By: Jiafeng Chen and Scott Duke Kominers
We investigate a market thickness–market power tradeoff in an auction setting with endogenous entry. We find that charging admission fees can sometimes dominate the benefit of recruiting additional bidders, even though the fees themselves implicitly reduce competition...
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- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...
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- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...
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- Article
Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients
By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou
Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial...
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- 2021
- White Paper
Go Out and Innovate! Perspectives on Educating Health Care Leadership in the Time of Innovation
By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Anthony Stanowski, Edward Schumacher, Eugene Schneller, Kaveh Safavi, Quint Studer, Andrew Jay, Tom Robinson and Kevin Mahoney
The CAHME Innovation Council unanimously believes that education is essential. In evaluating the competency domain of management and leadership, and learning from programs that prioritize innovation, we ask how do we develop competencies in future leaders to succeed in...
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...
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- October 18, 2021
- Article
To Regulate Network-Based Platforms, Look at Their Data
By: Chiara Farronato and Daniel Björkegren
Historically, antitrust authorities have taken a laissez-faire approach under the assumption that it is better to err on the side of not intervening when there is uncertainty. This has allowed companies like Google and Facebook to go on a shopping spree to acquire...
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- October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
- Case
Green Hydrogen in Chile
By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Decision Making;
Alternative Energy;
Renewable Energy;
Climate Change;
Environmental Sustainability;
Green Technology;
Financial Instruments;
Energy Policy;
Government Administration;
Strategy;
Government and Politics;
Social Issues;
Energy Industry;
Latin America;
South America;
Chile
- October 2021
- Article
Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry
By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...
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- October 2021
- Article
Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks
By: Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel and Kala Viswanathan
This paper examines whether—in the absence of mandated disclosure requirements—shareholder activism can elicit greater disclosure of firms’ exposure to climate change risks. We find that environmental shareholder activism increases the voluntary disclosure of climate...
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Keywords:
Transparency;
Reporting;
Shareholder Engagement;
Shareholder Activism;
Climate Change;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Environmental Management;
Investment Activism;
Corporate Disclosure;
Communication Strategy;
Information Publishing;
Measurement and Metrics;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Problems and Challenges;
United States
- September 2021
- Supplement
The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty
By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko
The first three years of CEO Dave Burwick’s tenure were tumultuous for the Boston Beer Company. The company’s hard seltzer products continued to grow unexpectedly quickly, eclipsing the company’s legacy Samuel Adams beer products. Meanwhile, a polarizing political...
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