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    • All HBS Web  (1,568)
      • Faculty Publications  (706)

      Uncertainty Remove Uncertainty →

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      • July 2022
      • Article

      The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
      Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level...  View Details
      Keywords: Employment Risk; Consumption; Employment; Risk and Uncertainty; System Shocks; Insurance; Household; Spending
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao, and Edison Yu. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 1 (July 2022): 85–104.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care

      By: Ariel Dora Stern, Avi Goldfarb and Timo Minssen
      Despite enthusiasm about the potential to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to medicine and health care delivery, adoption remains tepid, even for the most compelling technologies. In this article, the authors focus on one set of challenges to AI adoption: those...  View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Medicine; Health Care and Treatment; Legal Liability; Insurance; Technology Adoption; AI and Machine Learning
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      Stern, Ariel Dora, Avi Goldfarb, and Timo Minssen. "AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care." NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 3, no. 4 (April 2022).
      • Article

      Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps

      By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
      Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported...  View Details
      Keywords: Disease Surveillance; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Policy
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      Engel, Claudia, Jonathan Rodden, and Marco Tabellini. "Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps." Science Advances 8, no. 11 (March 18, 2022).
      • February 2022
      • Case

      Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff

      By: Navid Mojir, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
      Lilium is a German company focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) that can be used to offer air taxi services. The company went public in September 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal, raising more than...  View Details
      Keywords: SPACs; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Green Technology; Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Initial Public Offering; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; City; Disruptive Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Market Timing; Industry Growth; Infrastructure; Logistics; Product Design; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Strategic Planning; Partners and Partnerships; Risk and Uncertainty; Urban Development; Sustainable Cities; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Air Transportation; Aerospace Industry; Air Transportation Industry; Green Technology Industry; Transportation Industry; Travel Industry; Germany; Munich; Brazil; United States; Florida
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      Mojir, Navid, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej, and Emer Moloney. "Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff." Harvard Business School Case 522-084, February 2022.
      • February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
      • Case

      BUA Group

      By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal
      BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital...  View Details
      Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa
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      Macomber, John D., Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Wale Lawal. "BUA Group." Harvard Business School Case 222-062, February 2022. (Revised April 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Rejections Make the Heart Grow Fonder: The Benefits of Articulating Risks When Declining Social Invitations

      By: Ashley Whillans, Anne Wilson and Tobias Schlager (Shared Authorship)
      Across six studies (N=3,591), we explore the interpersonal consequences of COVID-19 risk communication when rejecting social invitations. In Study 1, consumers underestimate the benefits and overestimate the social costs of explicitly rejecting social invitations for...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID; Social Invitations; Interpersonal Perception; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Interpersonal Communication
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      Whillans, Ashley, Anne Wilson, and Tobias Schlager (Shared Authorship). "Rejections Make the Heart Grow Fonder: The Benefits of Articulating Risks When Declining Social Invitations." Journal of the Association for Consumer Research 7, no. 1 (January 2022): 124–132.
      • December 2021
      • Case

      Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape

      By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed
      In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo...  View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Law; Courts and Trials; Rights; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry; Japan
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      Soltes, Eugene F., Grace Liu, and Muneeb Ahmed. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape." Harvard Business School Case 122-051, December 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power

      By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
      Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on...  View Details
      Keywords: Bank Deposits; Market Power; Net Interest Margin (NIM); Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Begenau, Juliane, and Erik Stafford. "Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-039, November 2021.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Auctioneers Sometimes Prefer Entry Fees to Extra Bidders

      By: Jiafeng Chen and Scott Duke Kominers
      We investigate a market thickness–market power tradeoff in an auction setting with endogenous entry. We find that charging admission fees can sometimes dominate the benefit of recruiting additional bidders, even though the fees themselves implicitly reduce competition...  View Details
      Keywords: Entry; Reserve Prices; Entry Fees; Auctions; Design
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      Chen, Jiafeng, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Auctioneers Sometimes Prefer Entry Fees to Extra Bidders." Art. 102737. International Journal of Industrial Organization 79 (December 2021).
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...  View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...  View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • Article

      Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

      By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou
      Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure
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      Frankel, Richard, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka, and Yuan Zou. "Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients." Accounting Review 96, no. 6 (November 2021): 215–238.
      • 2021
      • White Paper

      Go Out and Innovate! Perspectives on Educating Health Care Leadership in the Time of Innovation

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Anthony Stanowski, Edward Schumacher, Eugene Schneller, Kaveh Safavi, Quint Studer, Andrew Jay, Tom Robinson and Kevin Mahoney
      The CAHME Innovation Council unanimously believes that education is essential. In evaluating the competency domain of management and leadership, and learning from programs that prioritize innovation, we ask how do we develop competencies in future leaders to succeed in...  View Details
      Keywords: Health Care; Health Care Industry; Health Care Entrepreneurship; Innovation; Innovation & Entrepreneurship; Health Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., Anthony Stanowski, Edward Schumacher, Eugene Schneller, Kaveh Safavi, Quint Studer, Andrew Jay, Tom Robinson, and Kevin Mahoney. "Go Out and Innovate! Perspectives on Educating Health Care Leadership in the Time of Innovation." White Paper, Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Management Education (CAHME), November 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice

      By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
      This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...  View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • October 18, 2021
      • Article

      To Regulate Network-Based Platforms, Look at Their Data

      By: Chiara Farronato and Daniel Björkegren
      Historically, antitrust authorities have taken a laissez-faire approach under the assumption that it is better to err on the side of not intervening when there is uncertainty. This has allowed companies like Google and Facebook to go on a shopping spree to acquire...  View Details
      Keywords: Antitrust Issues And Policies; Risk and Uncertainty; Digital Platforms; Competitive Advantage; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Innovation and Invention; Information Technology Industry
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      Farronato, Chiara, and Daniel Björkegren. "To Regulate Network-Based Platforms, Look at Their Data." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (October 18, 2021).
      • October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      Green Hydrogen in Chile

      By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Decision Making; Alternative Energy; Renewable Energy; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Instruments; Energy Policy; Government Administration; Strategy; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Energy Industry; Latin America; South America; Chile
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      Khanna, Tarun, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Green Hydrogen in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 722-361, October 2021. (Revised February 2022.)
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

      By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
      We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...  View Details
      Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Luo, Hong, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 67, no. 10 (October 2021): 6358–6377.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks

      By: Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel and Kala Viswanathan
      This paper examines whether—in the absence of mandated disclosure requirements—shareholder activism can elicit greater disclosure of firms’ exposure to climate change risks. We find that environmental shareholder activism increases the voluntary disclosure of climate...  View Details
      Keywords: Transparency; Reporting; Shareholder Engagement; Shareholder Activism; Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Environmental Management; Investment Activism; Corporate Disclosure; Communication Strategy; Information Publishing; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Problems and Challenges; United States
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      Flammer, Caroline, Michael W. Toffel, and Kala Viswanathan. "Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks." Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 10 (October 2021): 1850–1879. (Featured in Harvard Business Review.)
      • September 2021
      • Supplement

      The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty

      By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko
      The first three years of CEO Dave Burwick’s tenure were tumultuous for the Boston Beer Company. The company’s hard seltzer products continued to grow unexpectedly quickly, eclipsing the company’s legacy Samuel Adams beer products. Meanwhile, a polarizing political...  View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Leadership; Strategy; Growth Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Boston; United States
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      Wing, Christina R., and John Masko. "The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Supplement 622-051, September 2021.
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